| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:29 - Apr 29 with 1754 views | Help |
How does opta predict Leeds to get 2 points with one game to play??? |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:32 - Apr 29 with 1716 views | Help |
To err is human to really f it up takes a computer | |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:32 - Apr 29 with 1711 views | Illinoisblue |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:29 - Apr 29 by Help |
How does opta predict Leeds to get 2 points with one game to play??? |
Indeed. Sloppy Beeb didn’t update the article from when it originally ran a few weeks back. Foomin if I paid a license fee for this. |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:33 - Apr 29 with 1701 views | bluelagos |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:29 - Apr 29 by Help |
How does opta predict Leeds to get 2 points with one game to play??? |
If it uses expected values (a statistical term) then it will get to 2.
Say 10%*0 + 50%*3 + 40%*1 - will give close to 2.
Clearly is impossible - one of the limitations in their method. |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:33 - Apr 29 with 1698 views | NthQldITFC |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:29 - Apr 29 by Help |
How does opta predict Leeds to get 2 points with one game to play??? |
It doesn't. It's an average of all of their simulation runs points totals rounded to the nearest whole number. It means effectively that they think the chances are that they will either win or draw their last game. |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:38 - Apr 29 with 1645 views | Help |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:33 - Apr 29 by NthQldITFC |
It doesn't. It's an average of all of their simulation runs points totals rounded to the nearest whole number. It means effectively that they think the chances are that they will either win or draw their last game. |
Wow I want one of those super computers for my pay rise negotiations | |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:54 - Apr 29 with 1514 views | BlueinBrum |
Skybet have Leeds at 3/1 to finish top 2 (i.e. 25% chance), so if you are inclined to believe OPTA’s stated 35%, the 3/1 bet looks good value. |  | | |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:56 - Apr 29 with 1492 views | GeoffSentence |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:38 - Apr 29 by Help |
Wow I want one of those super computers for my pay rise negotiations |
Are you sure?
It rounds down. |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 16:28 - Apr 29 with 1244 views | ClareBlue |
So they can not factor in a variable that ensures it predicts something that can actually happen. Not that super really. Just programme with one game to go you can get 0, 1 or 3 points more than you have and round it to the nearest that can really happen. It literally predicted the only event that can not happen from 4 choices.
Super it isn't. |  | | |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 16:33 - Apr 29 with 1205 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:33 - Apr 29 by bluelagos |
If it uses expected values (a statistical term) then it will get to 2.
Say 10%*0 + 50%*3 + 40%*1 - will give close to 2.
Clearly is impossible - one of the limitations in their method. |
But how can you finish second if you have less points than the team below you. |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 16:37 - Apr 29 with 1169 views | NthQldITFC |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 16:28 - Apr 29 by ClareBlue |
So they can not factor in a variable that ensures it predicts something that can actually happen. Not that super really. Just programme with one game to go you can get 0, 1 or 3 points more than you have and round it to the nearest that can really happen. It literally predicted the only event that can not happen from 4 choices.
Super it isn't. |
I suppose they could filter out impossible outcomes at the end of the season, but it's a bit unnecessary and misleading if you think about it.
Imagine that their simulations result in 5,001 wins for Leeds and 4,999 draws. They'd be forced to put down Leeds for 93 points when they actually think 91 is effectively just as likely, and we'd all be more nervous than we are now. [Post edited 29 Apr 16:38]
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 18:04 - Apr 29 with 961 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 14:54 - Apr 29 by BlueinBrum |
Skybet have Leeds at 3/1 to finish top 2 (i.e. 25% chance), so if you are inclined to believe OPTA’s stated 35%, the 3/1 bet looks good value. |
What odds for us to win the title!! |  |
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| The OPTA “super computer” predicts on 18:50 - Apr 29 with 868 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
As others have said, clearly based on an average of simulations with the various point outcomes (3,1 or 0) applied and weighted
Usually find these kind of multi-simulation type models useful, but this is what happens when you rely solely on an algorithm and there is no one human (who actually understands the topic) to sense—check the outputs! |  |
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