| Two Thirds of the season gone...comparison with the last 2 seasons at this point 10:58 - Feb 14 with 719 views | BlueBoots |
Last season was adding these stats / comments to Nthsuffolkblue's excellent thread (I will link to it in my next post)...but a bit more data this time around, so posting a new thread rather than piggyback there 
Key numbers...our projected total based on current Points Per Game / Goals Per Game...92 Points, 84 Goals (This stage last season...86 Points, 86 Goals - remarkable to have improved our points tally and almost matched our goals tally despite going up a division)
Just to put into context how difficult the task is that we are trying to achieve, last season Sunderland were the first team in the past 9 seasons that managed to finish in the Top 6 following promotion from League One, and only 2 teams have managed back to back promotions from League One to the Premier League in the past 15 seasons, Southampton in 2011/2012 (finished 2nd, but came up from League One on a pretty sound footing with the likes of Kelvin Davis, Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert already in the squad) and another team managed to finish 2nd the previous season (I'll leave it at that... )
Just to make things more difficult for ourselves, last season's record-breaking totals in League One (Sheffield Wednesday hold the record for the most points in a League One season for the team finishing in 3rd place) ended up as a 3-horse-race for 2 automatic promotion spots; this season (barring a spectacular collapse by Leicester), we find ourselves in another 3-horse-race, but for just one automatic promotion spot...
So...with two thirds of the season gone, a few stats and comparisons between the first and second thirds of this season, and how that compares with the last 2 seasons...
1) 2.00 PPG, compared with 1.87 PPG at this stage last season (just 1.52 PPG in the 2021/2022 season). (1st Third 2.4 PPG (2024) 2.2 PPG (2023) / 2nd Third 1.60 PPG (2024) 1.53 PPG (2023))
2) Scoring 1.83 GPG, compared with 1.87 GPG at this stage last season (we only scored 1.46 GPG in the 2021/2022 season).
(1st Third 2.2 GPG (2024) 1.87 GPG (2023) / 2nd Third 1.47 GPG (2024) 1.87 GPG (2023))
3) Conceding 1.33 GPG, compared with 1.03 GPG at this stage last season (we only conceded 1.00 GPG in the 2021/2022 season). (1st Third 1.27 GPG (2024) 0.80 GPG (2023) / 2nd Third 1.40 (2024) 1.27 (2023))
4) Effectively about 4 points behind our points total for last season (98 points from 46 games = 64 from 30...currently 60 from 30)
So in this season and last, a significant drop off in points in the 2nd third of the season from the 1st third, but (again remarkably, as we've gone up a division) we've gained more points in each third than we did in the same ones last season. Reasons why we've followed this pattern for both seasons under KMcK? In my opinion, it will be an accumulation of factors. The usual injuries / suspensions that all teams experience, our players are expected to play at a high intensity; opposition teams trying to take us on at our open, attacking style earlier in the season now giving us more respect and playing more defensively against us (Using the last game as an example, even West Brom who pressed to death in their home game against us opted to sit off and get men behind the ball at Portman Road for most of the game) But a further (and I think most important) factor is ending up with a problem in one position of the pitch for an extended period.
Last season, the problem was at centre-mid with injuries to Evans and Ball effectively leaving us with just Morsy and Humphreys to carry us through until the transfer window, when Luongo came in and gave us a boost we needed (we also recruited well in other areas, bringing in players who were an upgrade on what we had). This season, the problem has been at No.9...the stats bear out that Hirst has been our most effective player (we've averaged 2.00 PPG this season, but 2.30 PPG when Hirst plays - for reference, the players with the next best PPG are Brandon Williams (2.13 PPG), Cameron Burgess (2.09 PPG) and Samy Morsy and Nathan Broadhead (both 2.08 PPG)) and since his injury our back-ups (Ladapo, Scarlett and Jackson) weren't able to offer the same outlet.
This has obviously had a knock-on effect on the rest of the team...noticeable since Hirst's injury that in some games we've ended up playing "in front of" teams at a slower pace, and having to try to unlock them when they've got back into defensive shape; as well as making it more difficult to score goals, we commit so many players forward in attacks that we leave ourselves vulnerable to counter-attacks - the Maidstone game being an extreme example. With Hirst in the team, we were able to get the ball forward quicker and exploit the space left by teams before they could get bodies behind the ball. Like last season where we brought in Luongo, we have addressed that in the transfer window bringing in Moore and Al-Hamadi. As well as giving us an improved goal threat, having No.9's who will be able to help us retain possession in the final third of the pitch will hopefully help us to concede fewer goals with the ball coming back at us less frequently, and from less dangerous areas of the pitch. (Although clear from a number of goals we have conceded that we also need to reduce the number of unforced errors we are currently making)
In summary, pretty much saying the same thing at this point as I did last season ("Key priority seems to be a bit of back to basics tightening up the defence") - after that point last season we had a run of 9 consecutive clean sheets which helped us to kick on; going to be much harder to achieve anything like that this season up against better players and teams, but we really need to find a solution to this problem to give ourselves a chance. Unlike last season though, problem has been compounded by the drop off in goals scored - averaging below 1.5 GPG as we have over the past 15 games doesn't give us much margin for error defensively, but as mentioned earlier hopefully by strengthening at No.9 that will improve.
Is automatic promotion possible? Well, at this point last season we were sitting in third in League One, 8 points behind Plymouth and 6 points behind Sheffield Wednesday (who had a game in hand) Both teams didn't slip up in their run-ins - we ended up having to go an incredible run of 42 points from our last 16 games (2.63 PPG) to overhaul just one of them. Despite being on target for 92 Points, we all know we're up against 3 recent Premier League squads to achieve that; there may well be more record-breaking points totals this season. Leicester (1st 3rd 36 Points, 2nd 3rd 36 Points) and Leeds (1st 3rd 30 Points, 2nd 3rd 32 Points) have been consistent, Southampton have put in a run after a slower start to the season (1st 3rd 27 Points, 2nd 3rd 37 Points), whereas we have had a dip after an excellent start (1st 3rd 36 Points, 2nd 3rd 24 Points) If, like last season, neither of our rivals slip up in the final 3rd of the season, we will need to put in another incredible run...as the manager / players often point out, we can't control the results of the other teams - just take one game at a time and give it a damn good go.
COYB
(Have copy / pasted the (shorter!) review I wrote at the same point last season in my next post for reference)
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| Two Thirds of the season gone...comparison with the last 2 seasons at this point on 10:59 - Feb 14 with 692 views | BlueBoots |
Nthsuffolkblue's thread can be found here... Statistical comparison with last Championship season by Nthsuffolkblue 1 Jun 2023 20:21Just been looking at who replaces who if I make the comparison with last time we were in the Championship.
Many of the opposition are the same sides so need no replacement. However, 8 do. I have roughly gone with the most recent promoted replacing the longest ago relegated but not been especially careful to check on this.
I make it:
Plymouth replace Derby
Cardiff replace Bolton
Huddersfield replace Wigan
Watford replace Reading
Coventry replace Forest
Sunderland replace Brentford
Southampton replace Villa
Leicester replace Sheff Utd
Of course the comparison will be with a season in which we got a miserable 31 pts, GF 36, GD -41.
We will need something like 14 more points to stay up, +44 (Edited from +29 - see below) for the play offs and +60 to be talking automatic. I am looking forward to the comparison anyway.
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Projected total based on current PPG / GPG...
30 matches: 86 Points, 86 Goals
Bit of work to do now to get to 100/100...after 15 matches, projected totals were 101 Points and 86 Goals, which I suppose highlights the end of the pitch where our problems lie...
About two thirds of the season gone, so a few stats, and comparisons between the first and second thirds, and with last season...
1) Scoring 1.87 GPG compared with 1.46 GPG last season. (1st Third 1.87 / 2nd Third 1.87)
2) Conceding 1.03 GPG compared with 1.00 GPG last season. (1st Third 0.80 / 2nd Third 1.27)
3) 1.87 PPG compared with 1.52 PPG last season. (1st Third 2.2 / 2nd Third 1.53)
4) Effectively about 10 points "in hand" on our points total for last season (70 points from 46 games = 46 from 30...currently 56 from 30)
So to summarise, although we had a very good start to the season (and we've continued to score goals at a consistent rate all season), in the second half of the season so far, we've only picked up points at the rate we did last season (just over 1.5 points per game), and our defence is actually worse, conceding 5 goals for every 4 goals we would have conceded last season.
Really hope we can turn this around, and still make a challenge for the automatics, but these numbers show it's a bit more than a "blip" or loss of form. Key priority seems to be a bit of back to basics tightening up the defence, as we're scoring consistently and have improved on last season in that area. | |
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| Two Thirds of the season gone...comparison with the last 2 seasons at this point on 08:44 - Feb 15 with 347 views | BlueBoots |
After 31 Matches...
Projected total based on current Points Per Game / Goals Per Game...
93 Points, 88 Goals
In the past 10 seasons, 89 Points have been enough for automatic promotion...we would need 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from our last 15 matches to achieve that - really unfortunate that this season it looks like it's going to take more than that.
Top 3 currently on target for
Leicester - 112 Points
Leeds - 95 Points
Southampton - 95 Points | |
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