| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? 11:54 - Apr 4 with 4136 views | Aviator |
Looking at websites it seems we are odds on to get promoted. Does that mean I can get evens or above on us not getting promoted? If so, how do I do this?
I can't compute that people think we are more likely than not to get promoted. It's so stacked against us:
We are essentially a point behind Leicester with an inferior goal difference
Difficult run in.
Injury problems to key players. (Burns and Moore.)
Morsy likely to be suspended.
Poor form (yes we have won the last two but were second best in both games.)
Surely on any objective unemotional view we are not likely to go up. |  | | |  |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:56 - Apr 4 with 2839 views | J2BLUE |
Oh do one. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 with 2821 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:56 - Apr 4 by J2BLUE |
Oh do one. |
It's a genuine question! | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:09 - Apr 4 with 2764 views | BarcaBlue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
It's a genuine question! |
It's an ill-informed trolling question. |  | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:17 - Apr 4 with 2732 views | Ryorry |
"Poor form (yes we have won the last two but were second best in both games.)"
Think it's clear where you're coming from.
Go back to N*****h - and I'm being kind there. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:20 - Apr 4 with 2709 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
It's a genuine question! |
Save your money. You must still be recovering from lumping on McKenna to go to Palace. | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:22 - Apr 4 with 2703 views | BlueBadger |
Haven't you got a sister you could be bothering rather than coming here to do THIS? |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:27 - Apr 4 with 2650 views | HighgateBlue |
We are top of the league. If we finish there, or second, we get promoted. If we finish 3rd or below, we still have a chance of promotion.
That is why the market (and it is a market, not a question of objective probability like the toss of a coin) considers we are more likely to go up than not. Indeed, that OPTA supercomputer thingy said that we have a 54%ish percent chance of finishing in the top 2. I appreciate the latter is simply an opinion based on a computer programme with lots of inputs.
If you are serious and want to bet against Ipswich going up, go to betfair or some similar exchange and lay us rather than back us. There are people currently willing to back us to go up and take 66% profit from you if we do go up. If we don't, you keep their stake. (If you're right, you keep £x, if you're wrong, you lose £0.66x).
I won't be laying us or backing us, I shall be trying to enjoy the ride! |  | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:28 - Apr 4 with 2643 views | Illinoisblue |
You had me at “I can’t compute” |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:31 - Apr 4 with 2606 views | BlueBadger |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
It's a genuine question! |
...that a budgie would ask. | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:33 - Apr 4 with 2580 views | smithy69 |
Looking at your history I probably think you are an ipswich fan - just a pretty awful one lol
Poor form? We have won 9 of the last 10 games. Blackburn were tough away from home but we won. They then went and won 5-1 away the following game. We then played a ex premier league money bags team who played brilliantly for 60 mins - but we found a way
I don’t know how you will ever be pleased as an ipswich fan if you think like
This | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:42 - Apr 4 with 2493 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Just in case you are not simply a budgie troll, to answer your "points":
We are essentially a point behind Leicester with an inferior goal difference EDIT: missed that this was a point as well! We are TECHNICALLY 2 points ahead of Leicester with a worse goal difference. On 20 April, they play their game in hand against West Brom who are 5th in the form table (Leicester are 15th). Unless they win that game, they will still be behind us having played the same number of matches unless their form has been at least 2 points better than ours in the meantime.
Difficult run in. Teams left to play: (H) 14th, 9th, 22nd; (A) 6th, 7th, 10th.
Injury problems to key players. (Burns and Moore.) We have had injuries/unavailability to key players most of the season (Walton, Hirst, Burgess, Donacien, Williams). Virtually without exception whoever has replaced them has stepped up to what we have needed.
Morsy likely to be suspended. Without Morsy this season we have beaten Sunderland, drawn with Huddersfield, QPR and Leicester. He is an important player for us but there is a reason why none of our team has been nominated for the Championship player of the season - we don't rely on just one player. Travis and Taylor have shown they can step up since then too. It's almost like McKenna spotted an area we needed to improve and he did so.
Poor form (yes we have won the last two but were second best in both games.) It's a good job everyone else is on even worse form https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/form/matches:6/typ I am not sure why you say we were second best in matches we had more shots, more goals, more penalty appeals turned down and more clear goal-scoring opportunities. Even if we did, isn't the mark of a championship winning team that they do enough to win even when they are second best?
Fly back home for Saturday and enjoy watching the second best team get an away win again! [Post edited 4 Apr 13:39]
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:04 - Apr 4 with 2375 views | Illinoisblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 11:58 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
It's a genuine question! |
Maybe you could also ask the bookie when Norwich will actually win a major trophy. Let us know what they say. | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:06 - Apr 4 with 2358 views | TresBonne |
Bit harsh the pile on in this thread.
Yes he's put a bit of a dopey opinion in there but he's only asking! 
Then again that's TWTD for ya half the time |  | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:10 - Apr 4 with 2317 views | Illinoisblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:06 - Apr 4 by TresBonne |
Bit harsh the pile on in this thread.
Yes he's put a bit of a dopey opinion in there but he's only asking!
Then again that's TWTD for ya half the time |
Come with a Mick Dennis tribute act and there’ll be a reaction. | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:10 - Apr 4 with 2302 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 12:27 - Apr 4 by HighgateBlue |
We are top of the league. If we finish there, or second, we get promoted. If we finish 3rd or below, we still have a chance of promotion.
That is why the market (and it is a market, not a question of objective probability like the toss of a coin) considers we are more likely to go up than not. Indeed, that OPTA supercomputer thingy said that we have a 54%ish percent chance of finishing in the top 2. I appreciate the latter is simply an opinion based on a computer programme with lots of inputs.
If you are serious and want to bet against Ipswich going up, go to betfair or some similar exchange and lay us rather than back us. There are people currently willing to back us to go up and take 66% profit from you if we do go up. If we don't, you keep their stake. (If you're right, you keep £x, if you're wrong, you lose £0.66x).
I won't be laying us or backing us, I shall be trying to enjoy the ride! |
Thanks, I can assure you I'm not trolling - it's a genuine question. Do I think we can get promoted: of course and I obviously hope we do. I just don't think we have a greater than 50% chance. For what it's worth, if I had to guess, I would have Leicester winning with Leeds second and us third. I think we would be unlikely to get past a well-rested Southampton in the play-offs.
So to clarify if I bet say £100 on Betfair for us not to go up how much would I get back? And is this for us finishing outside automatics or not going up at all.
Thanks. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:14 - Apr 4 with 2273 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:10 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
Thanks, I can assure you I'm not trolling - it's a genuine question. Do I think we can get promoted: of course and I obviously hope we do. I just don't think we have a greater than 50% chance. For what it's worth, if I had to guess, I would have Leicester winning with Leeds second and us third. I think we would be unlikely to get past a well-rested Southampton in the play-offs.
So to clarify if I bet say £100 on Betfair for us not to go up how much would I get back? And is this for us finishing outside automatics or not going up at all.
Thanks. |
I don't understand the emotional hedge. What is the point? | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:22 - Apr 4 with 2219 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:14 - Apr 4 by J2BLUE |
I don't understand the emotional hedge. What is the point? |
The point is that I don't think we will go up so I will happily take a calculated risk if the odds are good (which is what I'm trying to establish here). Emotion has nothing to do with it. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:28 - Apr 4 with 2183 views | Swansea_Blue |
Form over last 6:
Ips 15 points, +10 GD
Leeds 14 pts, +7 GD
Leic 7 points, -1 GD
Injuries:
Ips - Wes (Kieffer's likely to be fine I'd have thought, but we'll find out tomorrow)
Leeds - Roberts, Gnoto out til end of month, Gruev maybe back sooner (Rodon, Byram and Kamara missed their last game too)
Leic - Cannon, McAteer & Praet all missing lately
Morsy's not been suspended yet. May happen, may not. He can normally control himself when he has to. |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:32 - Apr 4 with 2142 views | Herbivore |
Obvious budgie is obvious (and odious). |  |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:32 - Apr 4 with 2141 views | JakeITFC |
We are 6/4 to not go up with skybet.
I think we are realistically just about outsiders for the top 2 and I’m not sure we’d be clear favs for the playoffs so it’s not the worst bet you’ll ever had, but the doom-mongering in your post is way OTT. |  | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:35 - Apr 4 with 2123 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:10 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
Thanks, I can assure you I'm not trolling - it's a genuine question. Do I think we can get promoted: of course and I obviously hope we do. I just don't think we have a greater than 50% chance. For what it's worth, if I had to guess, I would have Leicester winning with Leeds second and us third. I think we would be unlikely to get past a well-rested Southampton in the play-offs.
So to clarify if I bet say £100 on Betfair for us not to go up how much would I get back? And is this for us finishing outside automatics or not going up at all.
Thanks. |
If you lay £100 on any betting site that we don't go up you will get back nothing. | |
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| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:35 - Apr 4 with 2123 views | ITFCson |
You can lay Ipswich at 1.66 on betfair. Meaning you risk £66 if we get promoted to win £100 if we don't.
I don't understand the downvotes on this post. I too think this is reasonable value for a bet. It is not a bet I would place but taking emotion out of it I can see how this is an appealing bet. | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:35 - Apr 4 with 2122 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:28 - Apr 4 by Swansea_Blue |
Form over last 6:
Ips 15 points, +10 GD
Leeds 14 pts, +7 GD
Leic 7 points, -1 GD
Injuries:
Ips - Wes (Kieffer's likely to be fine I'd have thought, but we'll find out tomorrow)
Leeds - Roberts, Gnoto out til end of month, Gruev maybe back sooner (Rodon, Byram and Kamara missed their last game too)
Leic - Cannon, McAteer & Praet all missing lately
Morsy's not been suspended yet. May happen, may not. He can normally control himself when he has to. |
Morsy is an interesting one. Obviously if we are still in the hunt for automatics we keep playing him. But say he's on 14 bookings and we're out of it - he remains firmly out of the picture! | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:38 - Apr 4 with 2101 views | Aviator |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:35 - Apr 4 by ITFCson |
You can lay Ipswich at 1.66 on betfair. Meaning you risk £66 if we get promoted to win £100 if we don't.
I don't understand the downvotes on this post. I too think this is reasonable value for a bet. It is not a bet I would place but taking emotion out of it I can see how this is an appealing bet. |
So is that approximately 3/2 in traditional odds? | | | |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:45 - Apr 4 with 2056 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting Types - What are the odds on Ipswich NOT getting promoted? on 13:22 - Apr 4 by Aviator |
The point is that I don't think we will go up so I will happily take a calculated risk if the odds are good (which is what I'm trying to establish here). Emotion has nothing to do with it. |
Ok, I wish you the very worst of luck. | |
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