How many goals does a team need to score to reach the promised land? Or in fact how many do Ipswich Town need to score to get there? After delving into the history books, I've come up with a figure which, if reached, could return the Blues back to where they belong.

Last season Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace gained promotion. Cardiff scored 72 goals, Hull scored 61 and Crystal Palace scored 73. To gain promotion you would think you would need a defence which only lets in half of what the team scores, but you're wrong. With Hull's 61 goals they also conceded 52 goals! Whilst Crystal Palace conceded 62.

That may not be enough information, so why not go back further in time to the 2011/12 season. The three promoted were Reading, Southampton, and West Ham. Reading scored 69 and conceded 41. Southampton scored 85 and let in 46. Whilst West Ham scored 81 and conceded 48.

All the information is good, but what every Town fan wants to know, what do we need? Well, last season we scored 48 and conceded 61. The season before that we scored 69 and conceded 77. Lastly in the 2010/11 season we scored 62 and conceded 68.

So, in recent times we have finished with a negative goal difference. What I have shown is that in the past two seasons you need at least a 10-15+ goal difference. When was the last time we had that? 2004/05, when the top goalscorer was Shefki Kuqi who reached 20 goals, and the team also scored over 80! What have all us fans been crying out for? A goalscorer.

As I have shown the proof is in the pudding. Another way you could counteract my argument is by saying we could contribute from all over the pitch, but let's have a look at it. Our full-backs may get three or four. The centre-backs are great at set pieces so we may get up to eight. Our widemen who are Carlos Edwards, Paul Anderson and Jay Tabb will only contribute up to seven at a maximum.

In the centre, Luke Hyam and Cole Skuse will never even got over five. So that leaves the attack. David McGoldrick may get 15+ but Daryl Murphy and Frank Nouble will only get four or five apiece. Add it all up we have 40/50, and as I have shown above, every team concedes at least 40, and you need a 10-15+ goal difference.

I have left Paul Taylor out though. I honestly believe a fully fit Taylor and a switched on McGoldrick can contribute with roughly 25 goals. So add that up we could get around 60/65.

Even if the latter part of the above works, it would still be a very close shave. So how do we score more? A creative midfielder! We all want one. George Boyd was a huge miss. For Peterborough he scored roughly one in four, do the maths yourself, but in a season that's a lot of goals.

He then moved to Hull who had a very similar team to us. Robert Koren scored nine goals from midfield, and he proved to be their highest scorer! Astonishing, when the season before last Michael Chopra scored five more than that. McGoldrick can get nine easily.

That shows that for us now, the secret ingredient is a midfield player with an eye for goal. If Hull can stay in the Premier League this season, then George Boyd may become surplus to requirements. Him in our midfield with a fully fit Taylor and McGoldrick, then there would be no doubt that we could gain promotion.

To answer the question, what is the magic number? For me it is 65, but we cannot concede more than 50. The stats have shown if you concede more then you simply finish outside the top six, unless you have a goalscorer, which we don't have.

grf1g08 added 13:44 - Sep 4 I think it's fair to say that scoring more goals will lead to a team being more successful, but you say that two seasons ago we scored 69 and the season before that 62. Those seasons we finished 13th and 15th, and last season when finishing 14th we scored just 48. I think there's more to it than just having a goal scorer. Hull got promoted without any player reaching double figures. I like our team at the moment and hopefully with an increasing emphasis on young talent Ipswich will continue to grow over the next few years.

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luke_38 added 14:01 - Sep 4 By showing Ipswich's stats I wanted to show as well that we concede more than we score. To gain promotion you need to have a 10-15+ goal difference as I've said. Your point is fair in saying that sometimes the goals scored doesn't reflect past seasons. But over recent years I cannot find a team who was scored less than 60 and got promoted. I agree with you too with the Hull situation, Koren scored 9 for them. That's why I pointed out we are similar, as both sides didn't/have a goal scorer. They had a creative midfielder though which we lack unfortunately. Yes, the young talent coming through is something to look forward to. In a few years time we may have Jordan Adekunle and Jack Doherty on the wings which could be very exciting!

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Stato added 21:10 - Sep 4 Anyone else bored of hearing how nobody at Hull or Cardiff scored more than 9 goals ? Look at all the sides that finished above us and only Leeds failed to score at least 61 goals so the magic figure is certainly above 61 and for the sake of argument I'm happy to agree with Luke and work on a figure of 65. How many goals will McGoldrick knock off that ? 15 ? Murphy 5 ? Tabb, Skuse, Hyam, Anderson 10 between them ? Smith, Creswell, Hewitt, Chambers another 10 between them ? That just leaves goals from the bench so if Nouble, Taylor and co chip in with another 8 that will give us par with last year(48) when we were lowest goal scorers in the division and based on the current squad I'd predict similar for this season. That leaves us with a shortfall of 17 goals which is just too big to even discuss sensibly so lets consider scoring just 61 and scratch our heads on where the other 13 goals are going to come from ?? I think some of the shortfall can be addressed by playing Tunicliffe and Taylor rather than Murphy and Hyam. Others may believe Wordsworth has goals in him ? Do your own sums but I'd be amazed if anyone decided our current squad were capable of scoring 60+ goals. As these fundamentals apply every season I don't think it is too soon to be pointing out the shortfalls in the current squad as seems very obvious that we lack the creativity and fire power needed to make the play offs. A few on here saying wait until 1 games have been played until you start moaning. By my reckoning we'll need 14 goals by then.

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luke_38 added 21:47 - Sep 4 I agree that we aren't going to get no where near 60. We need to wait until next season, see if MM gets money, then add it all up again.
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grf1g08 added 10:24 - Sep 5 I suppose your argument makes sense. If a team scores 1.5 goals a game with a good defence they should do well.I suppose my differing viewpoint comes from the fact I don't expect town to be promoted this season. I feel a good season would be a top half finish with a shout of the playoffs still towards the end of the season. It would be nice to have something to play for still by March unlike the last few seasons. I think gradual improvement, investment in youth, some clever scouting and managerial consistency is the key to our long term success though.

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luke_38 added 15:33 - Sep 5 I agree entirely! No we aren't going to get promoted this year, but with consistency and youth and Mick we will improve!
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JimmyJazz added 13:13 - Sep 10 As we play 2 defensive midfielders, 2 wide men and 2 strikers we don't have a place for a Boyd/Koren. Isn't this the issue, not personnel?
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craigyboy10 added 18:07 - Sep 20 Well judging by us at the moment. 11 goals in 7 league games which should have been alot more if chances were taken. We are on course for that 65, but I do agree with playing Taylor surely he isn't gonna be left out all season.. Hes that direct running pacey player we need adds another options to us someone pacey on the shoulder of the centre half would take alot of notice off mcgoldrick because everyone would be so worried of Taylor's pace. I really wanna see a Taylor mcgoldrick partnership. We don't always need a big striker....

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