Whether Ipswich appeared destined for the play-offs in February or are on course for automatic promotion in April, Kieran McKenna's persona has remained remarkably calm.

He refuses to get caught up in the fan euphoria that has been fuelled by winning runs and the novelty of meaningful fixtures this deep into a season.

The phrase 'fine margins' had crept into the Portman Road vernacular long before the 1-1 draw at home to Fleetwood in December, but our manager's post-match reaction really resonated with me at the time.

“When you concede a 97th minute, double deflection equaliser it changes the narrative of the game," McKenna reflected. “We were disappointed to drop the points, but it is fine margins at the moment. The group is giving everything that they have got and, in general, the performances have been very high."

At the recent fans' forum, the manager was questioned on his use of data to make decisions. He cited the use of certain metrics rather than tight scorelines to reflect on his team's longer-term performance.

"Inside of the post, outside of the post, there's not that much margin in it. If that's your only marker for whether you've done well that week or performing well this month, you're going to be a slave to a lot of luck."

His composed and calculated outlook seems to be borne out of an acceptance that football is far from a perfect science. As we all know, teams do not always get what they deserve.

There are far too many variables outside of a manager's control for every scoreline to accurately reflect the match. Indeed, it is the unpredictability of individual brilliance, mistakes and even the weather that can make football so endearing.

McKenna can coach his team to be positionally flexible, dominate possession and create more goalscoring opportunities than the opposition. He can make in-game tactical tweaks and substitutions too. But even when these are executed efficiently by his players, the result is obviously still not guaranteed. Instead, it would seem, he perceives the underlying numbers as validation of his methods.

He has referenced expected goals (xG) on numerous occasions. So, it is likely that this metric forms at least part of his analytical toolset, alongside others including passing percentages and field tilt. xG can be particularly divisive, however.

I appreciate that quantitative analysis such as this has its limitations. xG has many providers with different algorithms and football is played on the grass and not in cyberspace. That said, the chasm between Ipswich's de facto points tally and the xG table I follow, seems to have confirmed what I have been seeing on the pitch with my own eyes all season.

We have been consistently creating more high-quality chances and conceding fewer than our direct opponents. I am sure most people can pinpoint enough draws or losses where we had probably deserved to win, yet two or three points were dropped, to make up the current 15-point discrepancy between reality and probability.

So, what was going wrong before the points accumulation ramped up? Or more importantly, what changes were needed to obtain those marginal gains?

A simplistic solution would be to sharpen up your shooting and goalkeeper. Nonetheless, we were up there with the most prolific teams in the league and Christian Walton ranks fourth in FotMob's 'goals prevented' table. He has been far from his imperious best at times but certainly not calamitous enough to explain the deviation.

1) Rub of the green

I would not simply attribute our upturn in form over the last two months to luck. But the standard of officiating at this level is so poor that tight games can easily be decided by wayward refereeing decisions. It would seem that the needle has moved, at least temporarily, in our favour.

Decisions such as the disallowed Marcus Harness goal against Barnsley in August seems to have been atoned for by Eiran Cashin's disallowed Derby equaliser in April. Christian Walton's goal also seems less magnetic to long range deflected goals from the likes of Shaun Rooney and Bali Mumba.

2) New signings

The January additions have given the squad fresh impetus and made a huge impact on the quality of McKenna's starting XI.

Harry Clarke has greater attacking instincts and quality than Janoi Donacien. He is more effective at exploiting the acres of space left behind Wes Burns. It is no coincidence that the Welsh winger's upturn in form has coincided with their improved understanding down the right flank.

Massimo Luongo's experience, presence and quality on the ball dovetail perfectly with Sam Morsy, whose shackles now seem to be off. Our double pivot is able to match other League One teams for physicality and then control the game through superior technical ability.

Nathan Broadhead has added a creative spark cutting in from the left and breaking the lines, so to speak. He likes to run at people, can carve open a defence with a pass and has a varied shooting range. There is now an abundance of goals, assists and attacking approaches offered by the trio who loosely operate behind the long-coveted George Hirst.

Our Leicester loanee is such a well-rounded striker. Blessed with the acceleration to get in behind or lead the press. The height, physical strength and deft touch to hold the ball up and bring others into play. Hirst also appears just as comfortable finishing with his right foot as he does his head.

3) A settled team

The shrewd January upgrades have created a more obvious starting XI, which in turn makes picking a settled side far easier for McKenna. Partnerships that are now flourishing all over the pitch were forged by continuity in team selections. This was especially evident at centre back, which has also positively impacted Walton behind them.

McKenna has had to distribute game time over the course of a season, for the sake of squad harmony, whilst keeping everybody both fresh and focused. There are also merits to picking certain players in order to exploit an opponent's weakness or deal with their strengths.

However, I sometimes feel that any slight tactical and physical advantages gained from both of these practices can be undermined by the lack of cohesion and understanding that is entwined with constant rotation and tinkering.

4) A platform for lift-off

Having four games (three of which were at home) in a row after the Bristol Rovers draw, against opponents around the bottom end of the table, proved to have an almost incubating effect on the new signings and their teammates.

In stark contrast to the tension and mayhem that engulfed home fixtures against Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth, the players calmly bedded in and got to grips with their new colleagues and systems. Partnerships were being nurtured, momentum was building and this would serve them well for more perilous trips to Bolton and Derby.

5) Cultural adaption

Our devotion to passing principles is both admirable and aesthetically pleasing. But at the same time, it could also seem almost detrimental to the club's progress earlier in the season. Arsene Wenger's Arsenal vs Tony Pulis's Stoke springs to mind.

We seemed to be trying to run before we could walk. Applying sophisticated tactics in League One could feel like driving a finely tuned supercar through a ploughed field. Sheffield Wednesday were fitted with their giant tractor tyres in Aiden Flint and Michael Smith, whilst we seemed to wheel spin in the mud.

As the season has progressed, we have adapted to our not so new surroundings. Carefully crafted cut backs and playing out from defence is being complimented, but certainly not replaced, by quicker and more direct passes, counter-attacks and innovative set pieces. We seldom get bullied in the engine room. The Cheltenham goal aside, we seem to be defending aerial bombardments and far post balls more efficiently too.

McKenna is learning on the job and swiftly building up a portfolio of work that should give us confidence in his ability to not only identify problems, but diligently solve them.

Two of Town's main Achilles' heels from last season were a lopsided bias to the right and ineffectual set-pieces.

His solutions? Firstly, with the help of the recruitment team, acquiring a left-sided specialist in Leif Davis, who is creating goalscoring opportunities at the same rate as Barry Bannan and more than every other player in the league.

And secondly, I'll give McKenna the last word: "We've gone from the worst team on attacking set plays from the second half of last season to now one of the best teams in the league."

NthQldITFC added 16:14 - Apr 14 Great blog, agree with all of it. One thing I would add is that I get the impression that the group psychology of the squad has improved a bit too. Not that it was anything other than good earlier in the season, but now I feel that there's a rock solid confidence in 'the process' and a total buy-in from all of the players. Players who were a little more ragged in parts of their performance earlier, now seem to be making better decisions, and/or mentally overcoming bad moments immediately without breaking stride. Everything is being optimised nicely.

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essexccc added 08:03 - Apr 15 Great blog Dan - written, as always with thought, clarity and well evidenced points. Your last point about player “buy ins” is, in my opinion, well evidenced by the improvement that I have seen in the play of Cameron Burgess. Always effective in the air and strong in the tackle, he used to have a clumsy side and could be beaten for pace. Now his positional sense seems to make up for his lack of pace and his ability to play from the back has improved enormously (I hope I haven’t tempted fate for his performance today with this assessment!). He has been one of our most consistent players during the recent run. Thanks again for your entertaining read.

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ITFCOYB added 10:58 - Apr 18 Excellent blog - i really enjoyed that. And the xG table is a much 'fairer' representation of our season to date. Once we get out of this league - hopefully this season - i think we're in a great position to kick on. Every game at the moment feels like we've been drawn against lower league opposition in the cup and they all set out to give everything to -maybe- get lucky and nick a draw or even an upset. In the Championship we'll be facing more teams who will expect to do well against us (like Burnley did) and i think we'll be in for a feast of good football, rather than hoping we don't spurn a dozen opportunities and then get hit by a long range deflection or a second ball from an up and under.

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DanLyles added 11:47 - Apr 19 Thanks for the feedback. I totally agree about group psychology. There seem to be a lot of good characters in the squad. Maybe seeing all their hard work being translated into points has given them that extra belief in themselves and KM's methods? I don't want to tempt fate either but Burgess's transformation has been remarkable. He looks more like the ball playing CB capable of featuring briefly for Fulham (August 2014 at Portman Road) and the defensive one who topped so many league statistics for Accrington. The right/left footed balance at CB definitely helps us when playing out from the back. He will probably be competing against a fairly expensive summer signing for a starting place next season though. If Matt Clarke is over his back injury then he'd be my pick for a PR return, like his namesake. We definitely seem to suit playing teams who come at us and leave some space for us to exploit in behind. I hope/think you are right though, maybe our style of play is more suited to the Championship. We are possibly more tactically sophisticated than many in the league above already and this team will be strengthened in the summer.

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