| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down 12:00 - Jan 23 with 1156 views | WeWereZombies |
The Union of Parliaments between Scotland and England in 1707 gave full vent to the Leviathan described by Thomas Hobbes during the previous century (when there was only a union of crowns) and kickstarted the British Empire, could Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 be a similar event but in this case is the USA becoming the junior partner? I think not as a leviathan answers only to itself (until it runs out of steam or whatever fuels it) and China will look to the most suitable outlets to increase its power in the world. To that end the USA’s ‘spheres of influence’ do not provide the necessary alacrity and would be impossible to oversee, China looks to the former British Empire as a suitable network. It includes the source of the current lingua franca and has a firm structure that includes many people of Chinese origin.
China’s internal problems are many and the debt is not the least of them but the leviathan is up and running, if a dollar and/or banking based system causes too many problems then the leviathan will crush it and replace it with its own systems. Of course, if these are as poor a fit with the emerging powers at the time that this happens then those systems will go the way of Imperial Preference did in the later 1930s - but by then the USA might look like the remains of the Habsburg Empire. |  |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 12:26 - Jan 23 with 1129 views | Guthrum |
I'd say that post-Mao economic liberalisation was more of a significant factor, as it combined the unifying strength of Communist Party rule (as opposed to the infestation of warlords between the end of the Empire and the rise of the Nationalists), but without the late Chairman's damaging political experiments (e.g. the Cultural Revolution).
I'm not convinced that there is a genuine partnership between China and the USA, more a sort of wary detente. They are rivals on so many levels, economic and geoplitical. Even despite massive Chinese investment, the US is by no means beholden unto China, indeed a lot of the latter's capital is effectively trapped there, unable to be easily realised. Certainly they do not constitute some sort of economic juggernaut.
I very much doubt that China has the economic clout and allies to overthrow existing global currency structures and replace them with their own. For one thing, everybody knows that the Renminbi is entirely operated by the Chinese government, there is no independence from that administration's policy, unlike the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, where there is at least arms-length separation. |  |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 12:34 - Jan 23 with 1108 views | StokieBlue |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 12:26 - Jan 23 by Guthrum |
I'd say that post-Mao economic liberalisation was more of a significant factor, as it combined the unifying strength of Communist Party rule (as opposed to the infestation of warlords between the end of the Empire and the rise of the Nationalists), but without the late Chairman's damaging political experiments (e.g. the Cultural Revolution).
I'm not convinced that there is a genuine partnership between China and the USA, more a sort of wary detente. They are rivals on so many levels, economic and geoplitical. Even despite massive Chinese investment, the US is by no means beholden unto China, indeed a lot of the latter's capital is effectively trapped there, unable to be easily realised. Certainly they do not constitute some sort of economic juggernaut.
I very much doubt that China has the economic clout and allies to overthrow existing global currency structures and replace them with their own. For one thing, everybody knows that the Renminbi is entirely operated by the Chinese government, there is no independence from that administration's policy, unlike the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, where there is at least arms-length separation. |
There is also the issue that if they let the Renminbi move as the market dictates it will rise and exports from China suddenly become much more expensive as does employing people in the country.
China has had a staggering rise over the last 20/30 years, but this has been based mostly on the back of cheap labour and cheap currency (and thus exports). When these factors are no longer present they will have to find another way to employ and feed their growing middle classes and will be stuck with the same problems the western world faces.
There are 22m students graduating every year in China looking for jobs - just think about that for a minute. It's a timebomb.
There is also a huge disparity in the demographics whereby there are far more men than woman in the current generation and that is another sensitivity issue the government are going to have to deal with.
China is here to stay, it's an economic powerhouse and deservedly so regardless on the thoughts of the regime in charge. However to think it's going to go hurtling pass the US and EU and then out of sight is misguided - it's not going to happen any time soon.
SB |  |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:33 - Jan 23 with 1066 views | WeWereZombies |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 12:34 - Jan 23 by StokieBlue |
There is also the issue that if they let the Renminbi move as the market dictates it will rise and exports from China suddenly become much more expensive as does employing people in the country.
China has had a staggering rise over the last 20/30 years, but this has been based mostly on the back of cheap labour and cheap currency (and thus exports). When these factors are no longer present they will have to find another way to employ and feed their growing middle classes and will be stuck with the same problems the western world faces.
There are 22m students graduating every year in China looking for jobs - just think about that for a minute. It's a timebomb.
There is also a huge disparity in the demographics whereby there are far more men than woman in the current generation and that is another sensitivity issue the government are going to have to deal with.
China is here to stay, it's an economic powerhouse and deservedly so regardless on the thoughts of the regime in charge. However to think it's going to go hurtling pass the US and EU and then out of sight is misguided - it's not going to happen any time soon.
SB |
I'm staying out on the wing and keeping the wide play going despite you and Guthrum setting up 4-3-3 - but I have to admit it is pressing me. To counter this consider:
One Belt / One Road - China is addressing labour and materials shortages with the most ambitious infrastructure project, we even saw the arrival of train in London from Beijing this month (apparently this has been running to Berlin for a while now).
I'm looking at the wider Chinese diaspora as well, the level of Chinese participation in Pacific Rim economies I witnessed recently surprised me beyond expectations. And when Chinese, Koreans and Japanese meet together what language do they converse in? We have opportunities as well as threats here.
Further east also gives us an unexpected advantage in Brexit negotiations - ASEAN is cuddling up to the EU at the moment as it needs advice on proven methodologies to firm up a single market, that is going to take some experienced operators out of the case against the UK. On the back of that though is the chance for a more inclusive Asian market that accomodates China and staves off some of the pressures that could lead to war.
So, I hope you will agree, a triple save of Bart like prowess there and the ball has been thrown out and kicked up the wing for an Uhlenbeek like race on to it - shame my crossing is of his standard too. | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:46 - Jan 23 with 1042 views | StokieBlue |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:33 - Jan 23 by WeWereZombies |
I'm staying out on the wing and keeping the wide play going despite you and Guthrum setting up 4-3-3 - but I have to admit it is pressing me. To counter this consider:
One Belt / One Road - China is addressing labour and materials shortages with the most ambitious infrastructure project, we even saw the arrival of train in London from Beijing this month (apparently this has been running to Berlin for a while now).
I'm looking at the wider Chinese diaspora as well, the level of Chinese participation in Pacific Rim economies I witnessed recently surprised me beyond expectations. And when Chinese, Koreans and Japanese meet together what language do they converse in? We have opportunities as well as threats here.
Further east also gives us an unexpected advantage in Brexit negotiations - ASEAN is cuddling up to the EU at the moment as it needs advice on proven methodologies to firm up a single market, that is going to take some experienced operators out of the case against the UK. On the back of that though is the chance for a more inclusive Asian market that accomodates China and staves off some of the pressures that could lead to war.
So, I hope you will agree, a triple save of Bart like prowess there and the ball has been thrown out and kicked up the wing for an Uhlenbeek like race on to it - shame my crossing is of his standard too. |
That train is just a gimmick, due to the differing gauges of track it has to change so much stuff on the journey that given the amount it carries it's a gesture at best. Large container shipping is still China's bread and butter.
The Japanese and Chinese hate each other, especially the older generations. It's not just dislike, it's hate with the older generations. There is no chance of China and Japan working together on anything major, Japan has thrown it's lot in with the west. As for the language, you are right, it's likely English but automated translation software will put an end to that quicker than you may think.
I think you've veered away from your original point on China becoming the undisputed world leader - rather like an Uhlenbeek cross.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:48 - Jan 23 with 1034 views | chicoazul |
China has always been the world's largest economy, the last couple of centuries being exceptions. |  |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:56 - Jan 23 with 1029 views | StokieBlue |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:48 - Jan 23 by chicoazul |
China has always been the world's largest economy, the last couple of centuries being exceptions. |
Not entirely true. Outside of the last 400 years India was actually a bigger economy (from 1AD through to 1500AD):
However your general point is correct, they are getting back to where they historically have always been.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:01 - Jan 23 with 1020 views | WeWereZombies |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:46 - Jan 23 by StokieBlue |
That train is just a gimmick, due to the differing gauges of track it has to change so much stuff on the journey that given the amount it carries it's a gesture at best. Large container shipping is still China's bread and butter.
The Japanese and Chinese hate each other, especially the older generations. It's not just dislike, it's hate with the older generations. There is no chance of China and Japan working together on anything major, Japan has thrown it's lot in with the west. As for the language, you are right, it's likely English but automated translation software will put an end to that quicker than you may think.
I think you've veered away from your original point on China becoming the undisputed world leader - rather like an Uhlenbeek cross.
SB |
So we're back in Midfield, where I'm outnumbered, I need to get that ball out (even if it is just back to a defender for a hoof).
You've not dealt with the wider implications of One Belt / One Road - I've seen the swathes that this project is cutting through jungles up close. And where the miles of dual carriageway end you find massive clearances and processing plants going up as using cheap African labour to send food back to China gets into full swing.
Away from the supply lines I can't help but notice the increase in tourism coming out of Eastern Asia - that's good for the economies of places like New Zealand and it shows that the middle classes in China and beyond are still reaping the rewards of a manufacturing powerhouse. It is in their interests to keep leviathan rolling.
On the subject of Japanese / Chinese relations I met a Japanese woman in Vancouver last month who is married to a Chinese man. Yes, I know they are both Canadians now, it is not just what happens in the home nations but out in the wider world. Globalisation is regrettable in some ways but it is here and it works on many levels. And it is not just Japan and China - Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam et al have issues with China's power but also have to live with it and can be useful to China.
Not so sure that automated translation is the answer in every case. Anyway, I've got the byline and I'm cutting a ball back in to the box now... [Post edited 23 Jan 2017 14:04]
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:02 - Jan 23 with 1013 views | chicoazul |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:56 - Jan 23 by StokieBlue |
Not entirely true. Outside of the last 400 years India was actually a bigger economy (from 1AD through to 1500AD):
However your general point is correct, they are getting back to where they historically have always been.
SB |
Interesting. Thanks! | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:09 - Jan 23 with 983 views | Guthrum |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 13:48 - Jan 23 by chicoazul |
China has always been the world's largest economy, the last couple of centuries being exceptions. |
It's virtually impossible to compare economies from different historical epochs, due to their utterly different bases of operation. How do you assess the wealth of the (wool-rich) late Angevin Empire against early 20th century industrialised (but resource-poor and indebted) Japan?
I'd say that, in terms of what we might call "politico-economic leverage", the governmental, resource, processing and distribution strength to exert influence in a wide area of the globe, the Roman and Babylonian empires would have given China a considerable run for their money, especially as the latter was fragmented into smaller, warring kingdoms for lengthy periods up to the establishment of the (Mongol) Yuan Dynasty in the late 13th century.
Tho if you're talking about sheer numbers of people in the potential marketplace, then yes, several of the Chinese states and empires win hands down. | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:34 - Jan 23 with 961 views | chicoazul |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:09 - Jan 23 by Guthrum |
It's virtually impossible to compare economies from different historical epochs, due to their utterly different bases of operation. How do you assess the wealth of the (wool-rich) late Angevin Empire against early 20th century industrialised (but resource-poor and indebted) Japan?
I'd say that, in terms of what we might call "politico-economic leverage", the governmental, resource, processing and distribution strength to exert influence in a wide area of the globe, the Roman and Babylonian empires would have given China a considerable run for their money, especially as the latter was fragmented into smaller, warring kingdoms for lengthy periods up to the establishment of the (Mongol) Yuan Dynasty in the late 13th century.
Tho if you're talking about sheer numbers of people in the potential marketplace, then yes, several of the Chinese states and empires win hands down. |
See Stokie's answer above. | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:34 - Jan 23 with 957 views | Guthrum |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:01 - Jan 23 by WeWereZombies |
So we're back in Midfield, where I'm outnumbered, I need to get that ball out (even if it is just back to a defender for a hoof).
You've not dealt with the wider implications of One Belt / One Road - I've seen the swathes that this project is cutting through jungles up close. And where the miles of dual carriageway end you find massive clearances and processing plants going up as using cheap African labour to send food back to China gets into full swing.
Away from the supply lines I can't help but notice the increase in tourism coming out of Eastern Asia - that's good for the economies of places like New Zealand and it shows that the middle classes in China and beyond are still reaping the rewards of a manufacturing powerhouse. It is in their interests to keep leviathan rolling.
On the subject of Japanese / Chinese relations I met a Japanese woman in Vancouver last month who is married to a Chinese man. Yes, I know they are both Canadians now, it is not just what happens in the home nations but out in the wider world. Globalisation is regrettable in some ways but it is here and it works on many levels. And it is not just Japan and China - Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam et al have issues with China's power but also have to live with it and can be useful to China.
Not so sure that automated translation is the answer in every case. Anyway, I've got the byline and I'm cutting a ball back in to the box now... [Post edited 23 Jan 2017 14:04]
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China has been buying up bits of Africa going back decades. That's great for securing cheap raw materials, but what China needs to sustain itself is marketplaces.
If transport costs continue to increase (I know they've come down from the temporary high of a couple of years ago, but the overall trend is still upwards), finances remain tight in the West and anti-importing ideologies such as Trumpism take hold, that threatens China's largest revenue streams.
Outside the new urban elites, China's domestic market is not that wealthy, so internal consumerism would be of limited help. Moreover, Chinese agriculture is still relatively inefficient, meaning food needs to be imported and paid for.
To some extent they can manipulate the currency to compensate, but trying to run a sealed system like that was one of the things which brought the Soviet Union down. Especially if, like the USSR, they continue to ramp up military expenditure. | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:51 - Jan 23 with 941 views | Guthrum |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:34 - Jan 23 by chicoazul |
See Stokie's answer above. |
I'd like to know how they arrived at the figures for that graph. For example, they've given Germany a GDP% share several times that of the UK in 1600, when the former was a patchwork of several hundred economically seperate territories (and, for that matter, England was still economically distinct from Scotland, despite the impending union of crowns).
At best, it's only going to have any real validity from around 1900 on (which, to be fair, is the main portion of the chart). | |
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| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 15:43 - Jan 23 with 880 views | WeWereZombies |
| Some wide ranging thoughts on China in the 21stC for you to narrow (shoot) down on 14:34 - Jan 23 by Guthrum |
China has been buying up bits of Africa going back decades. That's great for securing cheap raw materials, but what China needs to sustain itself is marketplaces.
If transport costs continue to increase (I know they've come down from the temporary high of a couple of years ago, but the overall trend is still upwards), finances remain tight in the West and anti-importing ideologies such as Trumpism take hold, that threatens China's largest revenue streams.
Outside the new urban elites, China's domestic market is not that wealthy, so internal consumerism would be of limited help. Moreover, Chinese agriculture is still relatively inefficient, meaning food needs to be imported and paid for.
To some extent they can manipulate the currency to compensate, but trying to run a sealed system like that was one of the things which brought the Soviet Union down. Especially if, like the USSR, they continue to ramp up military expenditure. |
I'm not sure if we are arguing to the same endgame from different strategies or agreeing on strategies but positing a different endgame. However, I would say that the infrastructure that China is now putting in place raises the stakes for the rest of the world and will give some protection against rising transport costs.
In a way the urban elites are the 'easy' part of China's progress to lifting its population out of poverty, as with every other part of the world it is the interzones between the financial hubs and the rural money poor but produce rich that present a seemingly insurmountable hurdle. China seems to still have some inertia towards these tasks and the invisible hand of the market will probably guide it, if it means more debt then the world has to provide it, the USA has been using that methodology to further consumerism for some time. And as more are lifted out of poverty so China's domestic market grows. How they deal with dependent economies in Africa will be critical. | |
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