| Still not quite sure it's over 17:32 - Feb 26 with 2104 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Call me a glass half full guy but when you look at the table for how much work we had to do in mid Jan, if we would have got 6 points in the last few days we would be one point off and it's still February! Yes I know, shoulda woulda coulda but I can't see us suddenly start leaking goals for fun, so if somehow any striker hits some form, it could still make it a little bit interesting. Some congested fixtures coming up for teams.
[Post edited 26 Feb 2022 17:33]
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:34 - Feb 26 with 2054 views | FrimleyBlue |
Think for me, i've got 1 eye on next season, so im just watching these games with interest on that really, and i'm liking what KM is trying to do with Town, it's actually really impressive football. Just a few tweaks uptop and it'll be tough to beat us next season
This season, This week is gutting, but we have 4 games against those higher, we COULD win all 4 which I didn't have us down to do, so if we win even 3 of those, our points would still be where I'd hope we would end up.
[Post edited 26 Feb 2022 17:36]
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:35 - Feb 26 with 2047 views | J2BLUE |
Agreed. Still unlikely but definitely not over. |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:36 - Feb 26 with 2032 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
Of course it is not over. Some of our supporters have been writing us off since before Christmas and I don't understand why they're so defeatist.
But with these latest two games the mountain has become steeper. |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:38 - Feb 26 with 2009 views | N2_Blue |
Because it's not. much more unlikely now, but it's not over.
Think we need 6pts from next 6 or 7 from the next 9 minimum or its done.
I was quite optimistic before this week but not sure wee will do it now but its not over |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:38 - Feb 26 with 2005 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:36 - Feb 26 by Tangledupin_Blue |
Of course it is not over. Some of our supporters have been writing us off since before Christmas and I don't understand why they're so defeatist.
But with these latest two games the mountain has become steeper. |
As a town fan we don't exactly have much to trust about the club and success so It's not suprising there's that view, I'm caught, I think we could do it, but also think it's just to hard for us to do it. | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:38 - Feb 26 with 2004 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:36 - Feb 26 by Tangledupin_Blue |
Of course it is not over. Some of our supporters have been writing us off since before Christmas and I don't understand why they're so defeatist.
But with these latest two games the mountain has become steeper. |
I wrote us before Christmas because of how far behind we were. The turnaround in form that McKenna has brought has been phenomenal really ... and still looks like bringing us up short. I have more hope for it now than I did in December. |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:40 - Feb 26 with 1992 views | Ftnfwest |
No it’s not, but getting the feeling we need to win the next two whatever |  | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:46 - Feb 26 with 1931 views | HighgateBlue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:40 - Feb 26 by Ftnfwest |
No it’s not, but getting the feeling we need to win the next two whatever |
Personally I think that Oxford and Plymouth are much more important than the next two. |  | | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:48 - Feb 26 with 1909 views | LankHenners |
I think most people thought that the run of games just gone was an opportunity to rack up points before potentially being slowed down by the likes of Plymouth, Oxford, Wigan, Rotherham. If we do the opposite then it's very much back on but now more pressure than there should have been on the former two in particular. |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:50 - Feb 26 with 1892 views | Radlett_blue |
Town probably need 26 points from the last 11 so it's a big ask, especially with some tougher games coming up. We largely dominated a poor Morecambe side, but struggled to turn this into clear cut chances, with poor balls into the box & corners a recurring feature. |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:51 - Feb 26 with 1861 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:50 - Feb 26 by Radlett_blue |
Town probably need 26 points from the last 11 so it's a big ask, especially with some tougher games coming up. We largely dominated a poor Morecambe side, but struggled to turn this into clear cut chances, with poor balls into the box & corners a recurring feature. |
Get 33 and this week means nothing lol | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:52 - Feb 26 with 1856 views | blueberry |
It’s not over, but 2 points from Cheltenham and Morecambe means it’s still only possible rather than likely. Crewe’s win at Cheltenham makes our result on Tuesday look really poor.
As you say though, we just need one of our four strikers to find some form to go on a run… |  | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:59 - Feb 26 with 1799 views | Illinoisblue |
We have no margin for error now. Will be a heck of a run to make top 6. I think we’ll miss out by 3 or 4 points and rue the shambles that was Paul Cook |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:00 - Feb 26 with 1777 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 17:59 - Feb 26 by Illinoisblue |
We have no margin for error now. Will be a heck of a run to make top 6. I think we’ll miss out by 3 or 4 points and rue the shambles that was Paul Cook |
Playing devils advocate here, if we miss out by 3 or 4 points, whilst I agree it was a shambled under PC, we've just lost 4 points this week. | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:01 - Feb 26 with 1775 views | jayessess |
I look at it 2 ways. One of them is - win 2 games and you're likely not much more than a win off the play-offs and then anything can happen.
The other is we probably need to accumulate more points from our next 11 than we did from the 11 just gone - in harder fixtures. Which seems unlikely.
That said, I think we're a much much better team than we were 11 games ago and the draw on Tuesday and today are outliers. Games you win 9 times out of 10 with even pretty mediocre finishing. [Post edited 26 Feb 2022 18:09]
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:20 - Feb 26 with 1686 views | Cuffy81 |
I think we are now needing to win 9 out of the remaining 11
Not impossible but I can't see where the goals are coming from to get us over the line |  | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:24 - Feb 26 with 1664 views | Kievthegreat |
It's definitely not over, but our margin for error is diminishing now. I think we need to be looking for 4 wins in March, ideally in both the Oxford and Plymouth games. I think 8 wins is enough, but we need goals. |  | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:44 - Feb 26 with 1590 views | Illinoisblue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:00 - Feb 26 by FrimleyBlue |
Playing devils advocate here, if we miss out by 3 or 4 points, whilst I agree it was a shambled under PC, we've just lost 4 points this week. |
You could spin it that way. Most people would not. | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 19:43 - Feb 26 with 1509 views | Radlett_blue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:44 - Feb 26 by Illinoisblue |
You could spin it that way. Most people would not. |
Exactly. Like we were rolling over the likes of Morecambe & Cheltenham under Cook. | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 19:53 - Feb 26 with 1480 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 19:43 - Feb 26 by Radlett_blue |
Exactly. Like we were rolling over the likes of Morecambe & Cheltenham under Cook. |
We scored 3 against them tho ;) and only lost 1 of them.
But agree, if we fail on playoffs it's not down to KM, in anyway, it just proves tho how little room for a bad start you actually get when wanting to get promoted. | |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 20:11 - Feb 26 with 1433 views | HARRY10 |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 18:01 - Feb 26 by jayessess |
I look at it 2 ways. One of them is - win 2 games and you're likely not much more than a win off the play-offs and then anything can happen.
The other is we probably need to accumulate more points from our next 11 than we did from the 11 just gone - in harder fixtures. Which seems unlikely.
That said, I think we're a much much better team than we were 11 games ago and the draw on Tuesday and today are outliers. Games you win 9 times out of 10 with even pretty mediocre finishing. [Post edited 26 Feb 2022 18:09]
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Ah yes, the old 'if we win no one else does' scenario.
The draw today and Tuesday are not 'outliers' (whatever that is). but a confirmation that we do not have that ability to grind out wins. Which is what is needed.
Currently, the figure suggests 26 points from our final 33. Assume we win the 7 against those below us, it would need a minimum of 5 against Wigan, Oxford, Plymouth and Rotherham.
Our last two games point to us drawing at least one of those 7.
And if we do hit 79 points, it will be at an average over those eleven games that would give 109 points over the season. Anything is possible, but let's not dimmish the task. | | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 20:18 - Feb 26 with 1423 views | BlueBoots |
Projected points totals if teams continue their form for the remaining fixtures (Current Points) (Projected Points) (Total Points)
Rotherham (75) (28) (103)
Wigan (66) (28) (94)
MK Dons (66) (26) (92)
Oxford (62) (19) (81)
Sunderland (59) (10) (69)
Sheffield Wednesday (58) (25) (83)
Plymouth (56) (20) (76)
Wycombe (55) (13) (68)
Ipswich (53) (21) (74)
Bolton (51) (25) (76)
Portsmouth (48) (22) (70)
Obviously teams don't just trot along in the same form, some will pick up, and some will slump - but this rough guide puts us in a 3-way battle with Plymouth and Bolton for 6th spot (2 points is a fine margin...) |  |
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| Still not quite sure it's over on 20:27 - Feb 26 with 1393 views | MattinLondon |
I think we need maximum points in March simply to be within a couple of points behind 5th/6th.
Oddly, I’m more confident of winning the playoffs than what I am of actually being in them. And I know that doesn’t actually make sense. |  | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 20:36 - Feb 26 with 1377 views | AlanG296 |
Of course it's not over, that's what play offs are for, keeps the season "alive" for longer for more clubs, rewarding mediocrity. 5 points off the playoffs with 11 to go sounds good, even though the odds of promotion that way must be tiny. If they didn't exist and promotion was as a real league should be, on 46 games, we'd be 13 off 3rd and game over. | | | |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 21:45 - Feb 26 with 1308 views | jayessess |
| Still not quite sure it's over on 20:11 - Feb 26 by HARRY10 |
Ah yes, the old 'if we win no one else does' scenario.
The draw today and Tuesday are not 'outliers' (whatever that is). but a confirmation that we do not have that ability to grind out wins. Which is what is needed.
Currently, the figure suggests 26 points from our final 33. Assume we win the 7 against those below us, it would need a minimum of 5 against Wigan, Oxford, Plymouth and Rotherham.
Our last two games point to us drawing at least one of those 7.
And if we do hit 79 points, it will be at an average over those eleven games that would give 109 points over the season. Anything is possible, but let's not dimmish the task. |
6th usually racks up about 1.6 to 1.7 points per game. 2 wins you'd expect to catch up 2 to 3 points or so. So, no, not a "we win, no one else does scenario".
An outlier because statistically no team consistently shoots so inefficiently that they score from just 2.5% of their shots. There isn't a single team in the EFL that averages close to that low for the whole season. | |
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