| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) 12:16 - Nov 1 with 4102 views | pafcprogs |
Bear with me as to why an Argyle fan would post this on here
Ipswich...US VC owned , highish budget, well regarded and clearly excellent coach, regular 25K+ crowds and riding deservedly high in the table, strong squad, score goals and win regularly
Argyle....single fan owned ( with minority outside investors...some of which jumped ship when Leeds were available), wealthy but not super-rich, on a course to break even, so lowest budget in the league for wages , investment channeled at player /facility development, excellent coach, as close to the play-offs as to relegation. 16K crowds due to ground capacity but looking at ways to increase. Score goals but lose more than they win
Wednesday Single owner, ground mortgaged, new ( 3rd) coach of the season, unproven at club level , late paying HMRC, players not paid/paid late (tbc), 20k+ crowds, rock bottom but just had first win. Struggle to score.
In each case my question to the owners would be ...why?
Obviously I am familiar with Simon Hallet at Argyle. he is a fan, he wanted to build a community asset, he has always said he cannot fund an EPL club and would seek outside investment, but that he wanted to build a sustainable Championship club....so far he has delivered all he has promised and whilst not a ceiling a such, we would as a club be content to retain Championship status and gain access to the improved revenue streams that come with it.
Gamechanger intrigue me. They are an investment fund so presumably they want to turn a profit on every investment ( but recognise some won't.) How do they do that from Ipswich....it either has to be from revenues increasing because of promotion, but unless you invest heavily on going up, assuming you do, that means it is a one year Blackpool style promotion....or player sales ( Argyle have already signalled that as they bought Whittaker and Mumba through an internal player fund...so effectively a percentage of any sales fees gets reinvested and the rest becomes the fund profit....)
So is there an exit plan for Gamechanger....or are they going to buck the trend and be a successful and profitable EPL club?
Wednesday are the one I would be worried to support. High budget, low achievement ( in that they have merely returned to where they were but are struggling to stay there so far), no apparent long term strategy ( unless you count lifetime season tickets). Ageing squad ( something that is also applicable to sections of the Town squad but clearly being addressed in a window by window basis). Owner & fans disconnected completely, on the slippery slope financially of antagonising HMRC? If you want to buy Wednesday and someone might, you would wait for the disaster to strike and drive the price down...ground is an issue but not insurmountable.
So three clubs that shared a promotion, three models of ownership, three currently very different trajectories.
I'd be interested to get a Blues perspective on my take on your owners.....and how that pans out if you get promoted....or if you don't.
Shame we scored three at PR and still lost....my concern for us is we need to improve the defensive side of the squad...we have several injuries and it looks like whilst Gibson is a find we need some more nous at the back and some steel in the middle...but gut feel is we will be Ok this season and will build again....
Good luck against Fulham....
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:43 - Nov 1 with 990 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:30 - Nov 1 by Dubtractor |
This, basically.
The ownership group have made no secret of the fact that they need to see a return on thir investment. They equally do seem to care about the club and support though, and the level of engagement is light years ahead of what we had under the previous owner. |
Ipswich....Wouldn't it be fairer to say a small group of football mad individuals got together and persuaded a pension fund to buy into their dream.
The pension fund see the club as an investment, and not a short term one, on paper it must currently show a significant 'profit' on their balance sheet. A value that can probably increase ten fold, or more, should Ipswich become an established Premier League club. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:52 - Nov 1 with 971 views | jontysnut |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:07 - Nov 1 by SmithersJones |
Pension funds buy and sell assets all the time. The question Gamechanger will ask will be “do we earn more by owning ITFC or by selling it?” Very few premier league clubs make money but they still get sold for big sums. |
I may be wrong but their investment, while it seems a lot to some, is a small corner of the fund. If they make some money - and they're trying- all well and good. If not then they'll more or less get their money back unless there's some kind of financial meltdown. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:06 - Nov 1 with 931 views | SmithersJones |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:52 - Nov 1 by jontysnut |
I may be wrong but their investment, while it seems a lot to some, is a small corner of the fund. If they make some money - and they're trying- all well and good. If not then they'll more or less get their money back unless there's some kind of financial meltdown. |
The original stakes in Gamechanger were ORG 90%, 3 Lions 5%, Marcus Evans 5%. That will have changed at the margins - we know that Evans’s stake has been reduced - but will substantially be the same. ORG as the biggest player will be the ones to watch. Interestingly if, as Phil suggests, the ORG stake gets sold off in batches it means that whoever buys a batch is not seeking to control the club but is happy to take a return on investment, through dividends or later sale, as a result of someone else’s decisions. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:14 - Nov 1 with 917 views | mylittletown |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:07 - Nov 1 by PhilTWTD |
Or selling stakes in it. I was told that that would be part of the thinking going forward. |
Absolutely.
If we do go up to the Premiership, Gamechanger could easily find another buyer for the ORG stake and give them a decent return. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:29 - Nov 1 with 870 views | Guthrum |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:36 - Nov 1 by SmithersJones |
Exactly right. I was guilty of doing what I warned others against some months ago, namely thinking of Gamechanger as a homogeneous entity. Entirely possible the 3 lions stay put and the Ed Schwartz group sell their stake (or part of it). |
Plus the UK element of the organisation, namely O'Leary and Ashton. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:55 - Nov 1 with 820 views | SmithersJones |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:29 - Nov 1 by Guthrum |
Plus the UK element of the organisation, namely O'Leary and Ashton. |
What’s the status of O’Leary’s ownership? When the sale went through it was always reported as simply 90/5/5 between ORG, 3 Lions and Evans. So I sort of assumed O’Leary was like an invisible Lion. And do we know whether Ashton has a stake? I assume his remuneration is tied, in part, to the value of the club but that doesn’t mean he actually owns a stake. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 15:58 - Nov 1 with 818 views | OldFart71 |
I would think nobody who supports ITFC is under any illusion that Gamechanger bought the club to ultimately win promotion to the Premier League and to eventually cash in on their assets. It isn't a five minute wonder and suspect that the owners being a reasonably savvy bunch aren't expecting consequetive promotions, although currently that's a propability, but in no way certain. As a follower, can no longer really call myself a supporter, although I am going tonight, my hope is that we build a strong enough squad before we get to the Premier League as I don't want us to be a yo-yo club and if that means another one or two seasons in the Championship then so be it as the current squad obviously have frailties which are currently going unpunished by the opposition plus the fact that we are scoring three goals fairly regularly which maybe we wouldn't do against Premier League defenders. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:07 - Nov 1 with 788 views | dirtyboy |
Don't forget they're not short on cash, so only need to see the value of ITFC as a whole entity go up, and the pension pot will be happy, dividends aren't what they're looking at with us imo (certainly at the moment)
They've bought a club for £X and spent £Y on it in terms of players, infrastructure etc and given it's current profile, it's almost certainly worth more than they bought it for (although incredibly difficult to put a number on it) but they will currently be very happy with how things are going.
A trip to the premier league would give them some serious questions to think about in terms of how long they stick or twist. |  | | |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:17 - Nov 1 with 761 views | pafcprogs |
Thanks for the various replies...interesting seeing the various viewpoints laid out.
I kind of agree with the comparison to Argyle v Town...geography is an issue in the Uk in a way it isn't in the USA....plus we a re being run in Avery steady and cautious way....we hit our promotion one year early against the plan...
We have had the first loosening of the shareholding's although as I mentioned the sudden availability of Leeds meant some of the punters dropped out and sold back to Simon to go down that route. SH has a pretty tight reign on the ownership side so his stewardship is well regarded as are the CEO and the DOF behind Schumacher.
There is no doubt we are fishing in adjacent pools rather than the same ones for players....or at east we are currently.... but recruitment to date has been pretty good....Gibson on a free was a bargain and I think will make a healthy profit. Cooper will be gone in the next twelve months but we have his replacement already in situ....
Was also interested in the porosity development side of one answer. Argyle a re doing some of that with Brickfields new academy base in conjunction with Council/Rugby club and buying up bits of land around the ground but being in a Council owned park limits that.
In time I think a new stadium may be required to fully realise the potential of the club financially.....the traditionalists will complain but we already have fan issues with the new seating in the Grandstand so I think it is inevitable.
The risk for us is always our average position league is a Division lower....so a 30/40 K stadium is currently not a likelihood.
Much appreciated | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:34 - Nov 1 with 732 views | braveblue |
Huge difference between VC and pension fund. They are long term investors. It’s ideal. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:52 - Nov 1 with 712 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:07 - Nov 1 by dirtyboy |
Don't forget they're not short on cash, so only need to see the value of ITFC as a whole entity go up, and the pension pot will be happy, dividends aren't what they're looking at with us imo (certainly at the moment)
They've bought a club for £X and spent £Y on it in terms of players, infrastructure etc and given it's current profile, it's almost certainly worth more than they bought it for (although incredibly difficult to put a number on it) but they will currently be very happy with how things are going.
A trip to the premier league would give them some serious questions to think about in terms of how long they stick or twist. |
From their perspective it's a pretty small fry investment in the context of their portfolio, in a sector (English football) that's very attractive for numerous reasons, and at a valuation that they probably saw as a bargain with minimal risk. £40m for a club with the heritage, history, fan base, existing and reliable future revenues, and a lot of potential to unlock. It's nothing. When you see pretty much any Premier League club valued at a minimum of £200m you can see why that would've looked attractive. A great opportunity to diversify their portfolio, with pretty minimal downside potential (we weren't ever going lower than L1) and the opportunity to add value even without getting us to the prem. That's the big pay back, but there's plenty of opportunity areas outside of that to go after (including such things they've already done by way of increasing revenues).
I think they're almost certainly in it for the long haul, at least another 5 years and perhaps longer. That's probably not really a question they need to answer right now and I'm sure they'll review that depending on how we're doing. One thing for sure is IF we get up, they'll do everything they can to invest to keep us there. That's where the value is. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 17:11 - Nov 1 with 682 views | WalkyWonderland |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 16:17 - Nov 1 by pafcprogs |
Thanks for the various replies...interesting seeing the various viewpoints laid out.
I kind of agree with the comparison to Argyle v Town...geography is an issue in the Uk in a way it isn't in the USA....plus we a re being run in Avery steady and cautious way....we hit our promotion one year early against the plan...
We have had the first loosening of the shareholding's although as I mentioned the sudden availability of Leeds meant some of the punters dropped out and sold back to Simon to go down that route. SH has a pretty tight reign on the ownership side so his stewardship is well regarded as are the CEO and the DOF behind Schumacher.
There is no doubt we are fishing in adjacent pools rather than the same ones for players....or at east we are currently.... but recruitment to date has been pretty good....Gibson on a free was a bargain and I think will make a healthy profit. Cooper will be gone in the next twelve months but we have his replacement already in situ....
Was also interested in the porosity development side of one answer. Argyle a re doing some of that with Brickfields new academy base in conjunction with Council/Rugby club and buying up bits of land around the ground but being in a Council owned park limits that.
In time I think a new stadium may be required to fully realise the potential of the club financially.....the traditionalists will complain but we already have fan issues with the new seating in the Grandstand so I think it is inevitable.
The risk for us is always our average position league is a Division lower....so a 30/40 K stadium is currently not a likelihood.
Much appreciated |
PAFC is a very well run club with a great recruitment strategy. Today, the stadium is too small however stadium expansion/move is very expensive. We've been caught out with this more than once. In an ideal world, 20-22k would probably be about right for you.
The problem as I see it is you will need additional investment to increase capacity and increase your budget. However, if you are near your current ceiling, where is the growth for potential investors? The risk seems too high that you lose the manager, get relegated and end up with a larger stadium you can't fill.
I think slow and steady growth is the order of the day for a club that size. Keep running it well, become an established Championship side and then who knows? |  | | |
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