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'Amos Harel in Haaretz offers this analysis of the political calculations that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be making around any possible hostage deal. Harel writes:
Political sources still believe that what motivates the prime minister above all is his political survival and hold on power as his criminal trial progresses. To this end, Netanyahu needs more time, and therefore any delay in indirect negotiations with Hamas serves his interests, despite his declared commitment to rescuing the hostages.
Netanyahu’s opposition to a possible hostage deal does not appear to be principled or sweeping. From his perspective, the major problem is a prolonged ceasefire that could herald the end of the war. The structure of the deal currently being discussed speaks of a six-week ceasefire, during which a first tranche of Israeli hostages will be returned in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, some of whom are considered high-profile. Even if talks run aground on a second phase of a deal – in which Israeli soldiers and younger men held by Hamas are expected to be released – it will probably be several more weeks before fighting resumes.
In other words, if an agreement on a hostage deal is reached, Israel will be headed to a ceasefire of at least two months. This does not serve Netanyahu since in that event, increased pressure to dissolve the Knesset can be expected, along with calls for a new election.'
It is incisive on Netanyahu's political future but it really does not tell us anything about the underlying causes of the conflict or any hope of a long term end to hostilities I'm afraid.
People are dying because it suits Netanyahu. The concerning thing here is that the West scream long and hard when it's Putin killing people to suit his needs but the voices are a lot less pronounced when it's Netanyahu doing it.
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This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 10:38 - Mar 19 with 1065 views
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 10:17 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
It is incisive on Netanyahu's political future but it really does not tell us anything about the underlying causes of the conflict or any hope of a long term end to hostilities I'm afraid.
I think it tells us there's little hope of an end to hostilities while Netanyahu is involved. His pushing of the West Bank settlers is what did much to raIse tensions and take their eye off the ball in Gaza. Along with his push to suppress the judiciary, concerning the latter.
I lay quite a lot of the blame for the present crisis at the feet of Netanyahu's desire to stay out of prison on corruption charges.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 10:38 - Mar 19 by Guthrum
I think it tells us there's little hope of an end to hostilities while Netanyahu is involved. His pushing of the West Bank settlers is what did much to raIse tensions and take their eye off the ball in Gaza. Along with his push to suppress the judiciary, concerning the latter.
I lay quite a lot of the blame for the present crisis at the feet of Netanyahu's desire to stay out of prison on corruption charges.
Netanyahu's very much a symptom of the gradual drift of Israeli politics since the 1990s though, isn't he? The trend there is towards less conciliation rather than more and has been since long before October 7th.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 10:38 - Mar 19 by Guthrum
I think it tells us there's little hope of an end to hostilities while Netanyahu is involved. His pushing of the West Bank settlers is what did much to raIse tensions and take their eye off the ball in Gaza. Along with his push to suppress the judiciary, concerning the latter.
I lay quite a lot of the blame for the present crisis at the feet of Netanyahu's desire to stay out of prison on corruption charges.
Just reinforcing the point that jayesses made, it is not just Netanyahu that is a problem (or Hamas for that matter), there is also the rise of the extreme right as personified by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. But perhaps most worryingly of all is the weakness of the centre and centre-left in Israel at the moment.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 11:10 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
Just reinforcing the point that jayesses made, it is not just Netanyahu that is a problem (or Hamas for that matter), there is also the rise of the extreme right as personified by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. But perhaps most worryingly of all is the weakness of the centre and centre-left in Israel at the moment.
See my reply to jayesses, but also -
A specific problem Israel has is that many of those migrating to the country are of more hard-line versions of the faith, with expansionist ideas (and a need for space to settle). That offsets any tendency to liberalism in the young and city dwellers.
Also fertile ground for a certain type of politician, who can gather their minor parties in by cheap promises.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 10:56 - Mar 19 by jayessess
Netanyahu's very much a symptom of the gradual drift of Israeli politics since the 1990s though, isn't he? The trend there is towards less conciliation rather than more and has been since long before October 7th.
It's the same thing which is inspiring the rise of Orban, Trump, the GBNews crew and so on. As society becomes more liberal, the reactionaries react. Change causes discomfort, especially when accompanied by economic problems. Extremists are always more ruthless than moderates. They don't feel the need to make compromises to be inclusive.
Yes Netanyahu is only a symptom long-term, but he is also a prime mover in this immediate situation and a significant block on getting out of it.
He's a particularly bad example, but we are a sad, failed species when we consider that so many of our leaders face criminal trials - or have at least faced legitimate consideration for such.
We don't seem to be capable of producing leadership for the common good - it always seems to deteriorate into leadership for personal gain or ideological selfish exclusivity.
Is it human nature, or is it the aggressive greed and profit-focussed system of capitalist basis which seems to be dooming us and our fellow passengers to a nasty, bitter and ultimately burned out end?
Can human values change en masse before it is definitively too late? We're almost all guilty of these kind of attitudes to some extent, I know I am.
# WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE #
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 11:50 - Mar 19 by NthQldITFC
He's a particularly bad example, but we are a sad, failed species when we consider that so many of our leaders face criminal trials - or have at least faced legitimate consideration for such.
We don't seem to be capable of producing leadership for the common good - it always seems to deteriorate into leadership for personal gain or ideological selfish exclusivity.
Is it human nature, or is it the aggressive greed and profit-focussed system of capitalist basis which seems to be dooming us and our fellow passengers to a nasty, bitter and ultimately burned out end?
Can human values change en masse before it is definitively too late? We're almost all guilty of these kind of attitudes to some extent, I know I am.
I wouldn't write a politician off just because they face criminal charges or civil court cases, it is a pretty common tactic to try and bang up your opponents as a way of discrediting them or simply removing them from a ballot paper. And it is not only countries that embrace capitalism that display failings in democracy, most communist regimes won't allow an openly capitalist candidate to stand for election on the basis that they are advocating a treacherous path for the revolution to take.
The quality of our political systems, and therefore the material prospects for our lives, depend upon our engagement with them. That is why the gang element is so appealing to the extremes, it frightens most voters away.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 11:10 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
Just reinforcing the point that jayesses made, it is not just Netanyahu that is a problem (or Hamas for that matter), there is also the rise of the extreme right as personified by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. But perhaps most worryingly of all is the weakness of the centre and centre-left in Israel at the moment.
Yes, while Netanyahu is unpopular the following suggests his removal would have no impact on the pursuit of the war, were there to be another election.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 12:25 - Mar 19 by DJR
Yes, while Netanyahu is unpopular the following suggests his removal would have no impact on the pursuit of the war, were there to be another election.
An interesting, and sad, survey. But, as as the pollsters themselves acknowledge 'if faced with a binary hypothetical choice' Israel could well leave the hostages where they are, the truth of the matter is more complex, e.g destroying Hamas would probably mean something even worse springing up in its place.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 12:38 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
An interesting, and sad, survey. But, as as the pollsters themselves acknowledge 'if faced with a binary hypothetical choice' Israel could well leave the hostages where they are, the truth of the matter is more complex, e.g destroying Hamas would probably mean something even worse springing up in its place.
And that's even if Hamas could be destroyed by fighting in Gaza. A lot of the senior leadership are elsewhere, not to mention their backers.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 12:49 - Mar 19 by Guthrum
And that's even if Hamas could be destroyed by fighting in Gaza. A lot of the senior leadership are elsewhere, not to mention their backers.
You also can't militarily "destroy" the underlying sentiment amongst Palestinians that the state of Israel oppresses them. So long as that persists the formation of armed groups is always going to continue in one form or another.
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 12:04 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
I wouldn't write a politician off just because they face criminal charges or civil court cases, it is a pretty common tactic to try and bang up your opponents as a way of discrediting them or simply removing them from a ballot paper. And it is not only countries that embrace capitalism that display failings in democracy, most communist regimes won't allow an openly capitalist candidate to stand for election on the basis that they are advocating a treacherous path for the revolution to take.
The quality of our political systems, and therefore the material prospects for our lives, depend upon our engagement with them. That is why the gang element is so appealing to the extremes, it frightens most voters away.
It was more of a general comment on the human animal really - we essentially don't do anything for the common good, and we are generally led by the criminally corrupt of whatever flavour.
# WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE #
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 13:20 - Mar 19 by jayessess
You also can't militarily "destroy" the underlying sentiment amongst Palestinians that the state of Israel oppresses them. So long as that persists the formation of armed groups is always going to continue in one form or another.
Biden had his first phone call to Netanyahu in a month. I suspect that things will get a little more fraught as the Palestinian death toll rises plus the famine situation.
Our Taoiseach seemed to be pushing an open door.
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This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 15:22 - Mar 19 with 548 views
This is very incisive on Israel-Gaza on 12:38 - Mar 19 by WeWereZombies
An interesting, and sad, survey. But, as as the pollsters themselves acknowledge 'if faced with a binary hypothetical choice' Israel could well leave the hostages where they are, the truth of the matter is more complex, e.g destroying Hamas would probably mean something even worse springing up in its place.
That's very true, but to emphasise the point you were making, a poll in January suggested the centrist Yesh Atid dropping from 24 seats to 14 and Labor getting no seats, with the only other left wing party Maretz getting only 4.
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