| A bit of perspective 10:26 - May 20 with 1790 views | Guthrum |
I keep seeing, even on here, people talking about the Prem as if every team apart from us is going to be at or near Manchester City's quality. That is manifestly not true.
There is about a quarter of the division which is genuinely very strong. But even they can slip up to lesser teams away from home - ManC lost at Wolves, Arsenal at Fulham and Liverpool at Everton in the last season.
There is also about a quarter of the teams who are of no more than Championship standard. They swap between the two divisions on a fairly regular basis, after all. Not even necessarily top Champ standard, either. Over the ten seasons preceding that just finished, only once have all three finished in the top six post relegation. One team did in every case, another averaged 8th position, the third 13th-14th.
Then you have the middle group, who are somewhat better than Champ, but not outstanding. Quite capable of losing to Champ teams in cup games, as Wolves did to both us and Coventry during the season.
To survive, we need about 40 points. 10 wins and 10 draws will do it. If we can beat the bottom six and draw with about half the rest, we're there, irrespective of what the strongest group do to us. Grabbing a few more wins here and there could push us to mid-table or beyond. Not losing too often will be the key, something we've been very good at the last two and a half years. Don't worry about the top six (some of whom will be in transition after changing managers), they are almost irrelevant to our prospects.
Basically, we have to treat this like our season in the Championship. Trust ourselves, get a bit of confidence and push on from that. There is little pressure, almost no expectation. All we can do is excel. |  |
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| A bit of perspective on 10:33 - May 20 with 1666 views | _clive_baker_ |
You're right that its very much leagues within a league. I think its fair to say that pretty much all of the sides are better than Championship standard. Burnley romped the Champs and promptly went down with 24 points despite adding to the squad. The 3 that came down all finished top 4 in the Championship too.
40 points is a bit of a myth nowadays too, such is the disparity between the relative have's and have not's. It's been years since 40 has been the required total, it's realistically more like 35.
Agree generally though, its not the results at the Etihad or Anfield that will decide our season, or those of a number of teams around us. It's Leicester, Leeds, Brentford, Fulham, Forest, Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth, West Ham etc. Of course all very tough games, but there's 54 points to play for right there without even considering Brighton, Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Spurs and the rest of the big clubs.
No doubt its going to be bl00dy tough going, but we just have to enjoy it for what it is and be proud that we're competing at that level again and the likes of Guardiola and De Bruyne will know what 'an Ipswich Town' is.
Edit: Fun fact, only 1 team in the past 12 years has won 10 games and still gone down. That was Cardiff in 2018/19, and the 2 clubs above them who stayed up only won 9. Cardiff only picked up 4 draws though so finished 3rd bottom.
[Post edited 20 May 10:38]
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| A bit of perspective on 10:34 - May 20 with 1652 views | tractorboy1978 |
Agree with the theme of your post. Luton's undoing this season has been losing too many tight games where they've competed really well. They lost 13 of their 24 losses by a 1 goal margin. |  | | |
| A bit of perspective on 10:38 - May 20 with 1608 views | WeWereZombies |
I opened your post just after opening the Premier League table to see where my independent calculation of forty points would have seen us this season - equal with Everton.
How did I get to forty points ? Nine teams we could beat ta home and draw away plus four home draws against other teams (which means six teams double us.) For the record I am hoping for four points off Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Leeds or Southampton, Leicester and Forest. Home draws against Man United, Newcastle, West Ham and Wolves. |  |
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| A bit of perspective on 10:43 - May 20 with 1559 views | JakeITFC |
I think we may also go into a division with a few bad teams getting points deductions which should help.
The three promoted teams from last year have hopefully given us a few warnings as what not to do - for various reasons I think only Luton probably entered the Premier League with a stronger team than the one that left the Championship (Burnley had exceptional loans that they couldn't buy, Sheffield United a bit of a basket case who lost their best players). If we lean more towards the Luton model of continuity plus some Prem experience I think we will do well - I would also say we have the lure/financial basis to maybe add a touch more star quality than they did.
In terms of what's needed, I'm not sure we'll be able to gunsling our way out of trouble this season - the three relegated teams only kept five clean sheets between them and didn't have a single 0-0. This season in the Prem has seen a ridiculous amount of goals scored so we might see that teams come into next season looking to tighten up a bit, but a cornerstone of safety might be our early season away performances from this season with the understanding that we might win all of our homes 3-2 or 4-3 at this level. |  | | |
| A bit of perspective on 10:57 - May 20 with 1445 views | Guthrum |
| A bit of perspective on 10:33 - May 20 by _clive_baker_ |
You're right that its very much leagues within a league. I think its fair to say that pretty much all of the sides are better than Championship standard. Burnley romped the Champs and promptly went down with 24 points despite adding to the squad. The 3 that came down all finished top 4 in the Championship too.
40 points is a bit of a myth nowadays too, such is the disparity between the relative have's and have not's. It's been years since 40 has been the required total, it's realistically more like 35.
Agree generally though, its not the results at the Etihad or Anfield that will decide our season, or those of a number of teams around us. It's Leicester, Leeds, Brentford, Fulham, Forest, Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth, West Ham etc. Of course all very tough games, but there's 54 points to play for right there without even considering Brighton, Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Spurs and the rest of the big clubs.
No doubt its going to be bl00dy tough going, but we just have to enjoy it for what it is and be proud that we're competing at that level again and the likes of Guardiola and De Bruyne will know what 'an Ipswich Town' is.
Edit: Fun fact, only 1 team in the past 12 years has won 10 games and still gone down. That was Cardiff in 2018/19, and the 2 clubs above them who stayed up only won 9. Cardiff only picked up 4 draws though so finished 3rd bottom.
[Post edited 20 May 10:38]
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I do wonder with Burnley if their cruise to the Champ title was part of the problem. Whether it lulled both them and their rookie Manager into a sense of complacency.
Also the massive number of changes over the summer (16 in plus a couple of loans, 20 out plus 10 loans), then another batch in January, probably destroyed any squad continuity. | |
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| A bit of perspective on 11:13 - May 20 with 1355 views | Asa |
I'd fancy these players under McKenna to have got the 27 points or whatever it was that was needed to have stayed up this season.
Having been involved in a record high points total for the top three in League One, then a record points total for the top three in the Championship, I am expecting us to probably need 76 points next season to finish above Forest into 17th next year knowing our luck! Lol. | | | |
| A bit of perspective on 11:47 - May 20 with 1206 views | _clive_baker_ |
| A bit of perspective on 11:13 - May 20 by Asa |
I'd fancy these players under McKenna to have got the 27 points or whatever it was that was needed to have stayed up this season.
Having been involved in a record high points total for the top three in League One, then a record points total for the top three in the Championship, I am expecting us to probably need 76 points next season to finish above Forest into 17th next year knowing our luck! Lol. |
Given our luck you just know it'll be a freak season where we need 55 points to stay up. | | | |
| A bit of perspective on 12:03 - May 20 with 1089 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Without wishing to rain on your parade, Town have been able to compete in the prem for only three of the last 40 years - acknowledging that two of five years were fairly bleak relegations.
That doesn’t point towards a prolonged stay - nor does the rather bleak geometric progression of stints in the Prem…. 3….2…?
I suspect the cynical decision to discard the academy and borrow players for short term gain might be something of a handicap now a surprise promotion has been attained. After striking gold with their first signing in Davis, the record since with right-on stats has been a bit iffy
Other than don’t forget FFP. Repeat offenders Forest and Everton will be docked points - someone might ask to see Bournemouth’s accounts, Brentford will need to sell Toney asap… and Leicester might be next season’s Sheff U. | |
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| A bit of perspective on 12:16 - May 20 with 991 views | _clive_baker_ |
| A bit of perspective on 12:03 - May 20 by ElephantintheRoom |
Without wishing to rain on your parade, Town have been able to compete in the prem for only three of the last 40 years - acknowledging that two of five years were fairly bleak relegations.
That doesn’t point towards a prolonged stay - nor does the rather bleak geometric progression of stints in the Prem…. 3….2…?
I suspect the cynical decision to discard the academy and borrow players for short term gain might be something of a handicap now a surprise promotion has been attained. After striking gold with their first signing in Davis, the record since with right-on stats has been a bit iffy
Other than don’t forget FFP. Repeat offenders Forest and Everton will be docked points - someone might ask to see Bournemouth’s accounts, Brentford will need to sell Toney asap… and Leicester might be next season’s Sheff U. |
There's zero relevance of 40, 30, 20 or even 3 years ago when considering the preparedness of us now for the premier league, or likelihood of staying up and consolidating there.
The game has moved on enormously, I would say its nigh on impossible for a club to be promoted to the premier league now and be too disruptive to the status quo, which is a sad indictment of the industry in general as much as anything else really. The usual suspects will continue to win the titles and buy up the worlds best players, while the rest cling on to the dream of surviving another season.
For Town it's going to be a very different mindset to try and stay up rather than go up, in some respects an easier one mentally with regards to expectations and pressure. We've not had a 'free hit' game in 2 years under McKenna, there's no such thing when you're needing 90+ points for promotions. When 10 wins in a season goes a long way to achieving your short term objectives its a very different proposition, the challenge is more in the inferiority vs your competitor set, of which there's no doubt there will be significant gulfs in quality.
Still, we're up there, its a proud moment to have a seat at the top table again, everyone involved has earnt it. We're progressing, great to watch, there's a real buzz around the whole club, the Town and the county. And we get to watch Norwich plod around the Championship with Ashley Barnes and Shane Duffy picking up their £30k a week wages. | | | |
| A bit of perspective on 12:20 - May 20 with 929 views | Churchman |
| A bit of perspective on 10:57 - May 20 by Guthrum |
I do wonder with Burnley if their cruise to the Champ title was part of the problem. Whether it lulled both them and their rookie Manager into a sense of complacency.
Also the massive number of changes over the summer (16 in plus a couple of loans, 20 out plus 10 loans), then another batch in January, probably destroyed any squad continuity. |
I think the last paragraph is the key one. Albeit at a different time, Burley got it spot on in 2000. Enhancement, not root and branch change.
I get a sense that we don’t quite know where we are because our rise has been so dramatic. Because of that, every job is more attractive to McKenna than little Ipswich. None of our players are good enough. Leicester supporters described us as minnows so we must be.
I have never thought that. When I hear Schwarz, Ashton and co it’s more about not knowing where the ceiling is than any current limitations. As far next season goes, as long as recruitment is careful we will do better than most people will predict.
The top third are out of reach, obviously. The mid section - tough, but hopefully we will take points off them. The bottom third - I believe we will definitely compete with them.
It's going to be challenging, but light years from where we were three years ago. As McKenna said, enjoy the ride. |  | | |
| A bit of perspective on 12:28 - May 20 with 843 views | jayessess |
Over the last 10 years the majority of teams promoted without parachute payments have survived at least their first season in the Premier League (65%).
The survival rate for yo-yo clubs is far worse (31%). |  |
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| A bit of perspective on 12:29 - May 20 with 835 views | burnbudgiesburn |
Nellies aversion to loan players is stuck in the dark ages.
'borrow players for short term gain' LOL
The loan system in the modern game is very much part of any promotion seeking squad, especially with 5 subs these days.
Just off the top of my head - Leeds have Rodon, Southampton have Downes & Harwood-Bellis. And both these clubs already have better players. | | | |
| A bit of perspective on 12:57 - May 20 with 706 views | Guthrum |
| A bit of perspective on 12:03 - May 20 by ElephantintheRoom |
Without wishing to rain on your parade, Town have been able to compete in the prem for only three of the last 40 years - acknowledging that two of five years were fairly bleak relegations.
That doesn’t point towards a prolonged stay - nor does the rather bleak geometric progression of stints in the Prem…. 3….2…?
I suspect the cynical decision to discard the academy and borrow players for short term gain might be something of a handicap now a surprise promotion has been attained. After striking gold with their first signing in Davis, the record since with right-on stats has been a bit iffy
Other than don’t forget FFP. Repeat offenders Forest and Everton will be docked points - someone might ask to see Bournemouth’s accounts, Brentford will need to sell Toney asap… and Leicester might be next season’s Sheff U. |
We haven't had an Omari Hutchinson or a Jeremy Sarmiento in our Academy lately. Even if we had, like Charlie Brown they would have been snapped up by Chelsea or that ilk. | |
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| A bit of perspective on 13:15 - May 20 with 635 views | Stewart27 |
| A bit of perspective on 12:03 - May 20 by ElephantintheRoom |
Without wishing to rain on your parade, Town have been able to compete in the prem for only three of the last 40 years - acknowledging that two of five years were fairly bleak relegations.
That doesn’t point towards a prolonged stay - nor does the rather bleak geometric progression of stints in the Prem…. 3….2…?
I suspect the cynical decision to discard the academy and borrow players for short term gain might be something of a handicap now a surprise promotion has been attained. After striking gold with their first signing in Davis, the record since with right-on stats has been a bit iffy
Other than don’t forget FFP. Repeat offenders Forest and Everton will be docked points - someone might ask to see Bournemouth’s accounts, Brentford will need to sell Toney asap… and Leicester might be next season’s Sheff U. |
It’s completely irrelevant how many years town have competed in the premier league in the last 40 years. How many had Brentford competed prior to them going up and staying there?
As for your point on loans, they have done exactly as intended. Not sure if Cat 1 academy would have got us there and there’s no point debating it as we know the grass has been green on this side. | | | |
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