| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem 10:55 - May 20 with 2291 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
I'd have thought the world is over populated as it is, and with increasing automation and AI taking over jobs do we really need to maintain or increase populations?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72p2vgd21no |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:02 - May 20 with 1813 views | chicoazul |
Do you know how pensions work |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:03 - May 20 with 1813 views | Guthrum |
The big problem is that, with people living longer and a falling birthrate, you're left with an ageing population and a smaller working tax-base to pay for their pensions and healthcare. |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:08 - May 20 with 1771 views | StokieBlue |
It's a complicated question.
On one side, a decreasing population will help with environmental issues but that would only be the case if it was decreasing globally but that isn't the case - Africa is growing and a huge rate with countries like Nigeria expected to past the US in population by the middle-of the century and the continent to have a population similar to Asia by the end of the century:
NB: Important to remember these are forecasts.
With regards to western or more developed economies the issue is around how you support a larger population of older people with a smaller workforce and thus possibly less GDP growth. It's possible AI could cover this in some form (tax per bot or something) but it's all a bit unknown at the moment.
A smaller global population across the board would benefit the environment substantially but it's unlikely to happen any time soon, a more realistic outcome is the stabilisation of the population at around 8 or 9bn.
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:09 - May 20 with 1773 views | giant_stow |
I haven't read the link but isn't the birth rate falling alarmingly fast? As in on current trends, end of humanity fast / something more than people getting richer fast? |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:09 - May 20 with 1769 views | EddyJ |
We need human populations to fall to conserve the planet, but we need them not to drop so rapidly that we get a top-heavy population.
Our current neo-liberal capitalist system relies on constant growth. The easiest way to achieve this is to increase populations. If the birth rate is low, the only way to do this is through mass immigration, which tends to cause political problems.
A long-sighted government would understand the reasons birth rates are so low: cost of raising children, damage to careers, defunding childrens services and schools. Our short-sighted government don't care. |  | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:11 - May 20 with 1761 views | Buhrer |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:03 - May 20 by Guthrum |
The big problem is that, with people living longer and a falling birthrate, you're left with an ageing population and a smaller working tax-base to pay for their pensions and healthcare. |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:12 - May 20 with 1743 views | Wacko |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:03 - May 20 by Guthrum |
The big problem is that, with people living longer and a falling birthrate, you're left with an ageing population and a smaller working tax-base to pay for their pensions and healthcare. |
That's why immigration is vital for the UK's future
And why Farage is a thick prick | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:18 - May 20 with 1703 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:02 - May 20 by chicoazul |
Do you know how pensions work |
A simplistic response, I wouldn't expect anything less from you though. | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:19 - May 20 with 1688 views | chicoazul |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:18 - May 20 by The_Flashing_Smile |
A simplistic response, I wouldn't expect anything less from you though. |
That’s a no then | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:25 - May 20 with 1628 views | noggin |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:02 - May 20 by chicoazul |
Do you know how pensions work |
Don't they come from sovereign wealth funds? |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:40 - May 20 with 1524 views | chicoazul |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:25 - May 20 by noggin |
Don't they come from sovereign wealth funds? |
What? | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:42 - May 20 with 1507 views | noggin |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:40 - May 20 by chicoazul |
What? |
Pensions, silly. | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:03 - May 20 with 1433 views | chicoazul |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:42 - May 20 by noggin |
Pensions, silly. |
Do you really think for one eg that the UK funds pensions via a “sovereign wealth fund”? | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:13 - May 20 with 1402 views | J2BLUE |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:03 - May 20 by chicoazul |
Do you really think for one eg that the UK funds pensions via a “sovereign wealth fund”? |
I think it's another thinly veiled dig at the UK from the utopia of Norway. |  |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:17 - May 20 with 1358 views | J2BLUE |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:08 - May 20 by StokieBlue |
It's a complicated question.
On one side, a decreasing population will help with environmental issues but that would only be the case if it was decreasing globally but that isn't the case - Africa is growing and a huge rate with countries like Nigeria expected to past the US in population by the middle-of the century and the continent to have a population similar to Asia by the end of the century:
NB: Important to remember these are forecasts.
With regards to western or more developed economies the issue is around how you support a larger population of older people with a smaller workforce and thus possibly less GDP growth. It's possible AI could cover this in some form (tax per bot or something) but it's all a bit unknown at the moment.
A smaller global population across the board would benefit the environment substantially but it's unlikely to happen any time soon, a more realistic outcome is the stabilisation of the population at around 8 or 9bn.
SB |
Perhaps it's time for us all to benefit from technology like we were promised.
Tesco save 10 salaries with self service checkouts. Maybe they should pay 25% of those savings in extra tax.
Every time a human is replaced with a machine to save companies money it should be benefitting society as a whole. | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:18 - May 20 with 1352 views | bluelagos |
So there's a few issues which counter the point (a positive one) that fewer people overall will be good for the planet in terms of the damage we cause.
First off - if the global birth rates fall well below 2 per female - we would ultimately die out - albeit that is a long way off and am sure there would be changes and things that would happen before that occured.
Second - the point Chico makes has some validity - albeit he hasn't exactly explained why. With an aging population that also has smaller numbers of births - the number of pensioners (who need paying for/caring for) per worker (who pay for the pensions and who do the caring) will be higher than ever - thus problems in funding the pensions and staffing the care homes.
Third is the issue of migration. Assuming we need to fill our labour gaps with migration - previously we simply used East European migrants and that worked well for all. But in the future, the labour shortages will be apparent in many more countries - so those chasing labour will be fighting for it (assuming the current pop.n trends continue) . The whole of Europe - many parts of Asia will be desperate for migrants and the only real source is likely to be Africa (for now)
So there are going to be a lot of transition problems as we seek to stabalise our population in a world where other countries will be doing the same.
That said - as a race we seem quite good at coming up with solutions and I would imagine AI will do lots of jobs thus reducing labour shortages - so it may well turn out to be positive (in the long term) but I would imagine there's going to be a lot of difficulty before we get there.
Edited per Dolly's point below on birth rate. [Post edited 20 May 12:56]
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:18 - May 20 with 1352 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
There is the alternative Japanese model, with and aging and declining population. That results in economic stagnation, and ever mounting national debt. That said, the standard of living is very good, but remains to be seen how sustainable it is in the long term.
State pensions however, are effectively a Ponzi scheme requiring ever more tax payers. As Noggin noted a SWF with assets built up over time, providing investment returns and capital growth would have offered a much more secure, and sustainable mechanism.
Some of the largest investors in the FTSE are foreign pension funds (eg. Canadian schemes). Like everything in this country there is no forward planning, and our worse than useless politicians of all colours have failed to plan for our future, instead selling off our assets on the cheap, and frittering money away for electoral tax cut bribes. | | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:28 - May 20 with 1291 views | Daninthecampo |
Great for the planet but no so for the remaining population, its a major concern for all countries, after years of China only allowing 1 child per couple they're now actively encouraging (tv adverts etc) and paying people to have at least 3!
You need something like 2.1 kids per woman to maintain the population, here in Spain its down to 1.2, the population is expected to drop by 24% (11.5M)in the next 50 years which is huge.
We don't have kids so we're part of the problem but there's so many reasons why not having kids is good for ourselves and the planet. | | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:45 - May 20 with 1205 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:18 - May 20 by bluelagos |
So there's a few issues which counter the point (a positive one) that fewer people overall will be good for the planet in terms of the damage we cause.
First off - if the global birth rates fall well below 2 per female - we would ultimately die out - albeit that is a long way off and am sure there would be changes and things that would happen before that occured.
Second - the point Chico makes has some validity - albeit he hasn't exactly explained why. With an aging population that also has smaller numbers of births - the number of pensioners (who need paying for/caring for) per worker (who pay for the pensions and who do the caring) will be higher than ever - thus problems in funding the pensions and staffing the care homes.
Third is the issue of migration. Assuming we need to fill our labour gaps with migration - previously we simply used East European migrants and that worked well for all. But in the future, the labour shortages will be apparent in many more countries - so those chasing labour will be fighting for it (assuming the current pop.n trends continue) . The whole of Europe - many parts of Asia will be desperate for migrants and the only real source is likely to be Africa (for now)
So there are going to be a lot of transition problems as we seek to stabalise our population in a world where other countries will be doing the same.
That said - as a race we seem quite good at coming up with solutions and I would imagine AI will do lots of jobs thus reducing labour shortages - so it may well turn out to be positive (in the long term) but I would imagine there's going to be a lot of difficulty before we get there.
Edited per Dolly's point below on birth rate. [Post edited 20 May 12:56]
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Chickers' point was "do I understand how pensions work?", which of course I do so was just a childish dig. Pensions aren't solely paid by younger workers, there's such a thing as a private pension which everyone should be putting into rather than relying on the state. But yes, obviously less people paying into the state pension will mean that funding will have to come from elsewhere. There are lots of different ways to raise funds other than 'create more people' (which ultimately creates more pensioners anyway, so was never going to be sustainable).
Surely the global birth rates need to fall below 1 per adult not 2 per adult, for us to die out? One in one out?
And yes, migration will be one of the answers. As parts of the planet become uninhabitable people will be forced to migrate anyway. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:47 - May 20 with 1196 views | bluelagos |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:45 - May 20 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Chickers' point was "do I understand how pensions work?", which of course I do so was just a childish dig. Pensions aren't solely paid by younger workers, there's such a thing as a private pension which everyone should be putting into rather than relying on the state. But yes, obviously less people paying into the state pension will mean that funding will have to come from elsewhere. There are lots of different ways to raise funds other than 'create more people' (which ultimately creates more pensioners anyway, so was never going to be sustainable).
Surely the global birth rates need to fall below 1 per adult not 2 per adult, for us to die out? One in one out?
And yes, migration will be one of the answers. As parts of the planet become uninhabitable people will be forced to migrate anyway. |
"Surely the global birth rates need to fall below 1 per adult not 2 per adult, for us to die out? One in one out? "
Yeah - the 2 quoted (it's 2.1 which I never understand) is per woman - so it's 1 per adult. | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:00 - May 20 with 1127 views | Daninthecampo |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:45 - May 20 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Chickers' point was "do I understand how pensions work?", which of course I do so was just a childish dig. Pensions aren't solely paid by younger workers, there's such a thing as a private pension which everyone should be putting into rather than relying on the state. But yes, obviously less people paying into the state pension will mean that funding will have to come from elsewhere. There are lots of different ways to raise funds other than 'create more people' (which ultimately creates more pensioners anyway, so was never going to be sustainable).
Surely the global birth rates need to fall below 1 per adult not 2 per adult, for us to die out? One in one out?
And yes, migration will be one of the answers. As parts of the planet become uninhabitable people will be forced to migrate anyway. |
You also have the issue of who physically looks after this ageing population? there is already a big shortage of care workers, as the birth rate drops there is even less people to care for the growing elderly population. This is just for paid carers, currently so many old people are looked after by their children /grandchildren, as in my case we will have no family to look after us so we will need paid help which causes a bigger strain on the lack of help. | | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:19 - May 20 with 1040 views | NthQldITFC |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 11:03 - May 20 by Guthrum |
The big problem is that, with people living longer and a falling birthrate, you're left with an ageing population and a smaller working tax-base to pay for their pensions and healthcare. |
That's only a problem when coupled with the obscenely wasteful and ostentatious way we live in our shallow Western culture which has now invaded the whole world.
The world could probably survive with its current burden of humanity if we chose to live frugally and happily within the Earth's budget, safe in the knowledge that our children would have a future to look forward to.
But we want disposable tat and multiple foreign holidays and new cars every ten minutes and we stick our fingers in our ears and go "La-la-la" as the world dies around us.
The obsession with growth and 'standard of living' increase will kill us. Yet we won't face it. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:20 - May 20 with 1035 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:00 - May 20 by Daninthecampo |
You also have the issue of who physically looks after this ageing population? there is already a big shortage of care workers, as the birth rate drops there is even less people to care for the growing elderly population. This is just for paid carers, currently so many old people are looked after by their children /grandchildren, as in my case we will have no family to look after us so we will need paid help which causes a bigger strain on the lack of help. |
Oh yeah I totally get that. But then the higher the birth rate the more elderly further down the line who need looking after. You're constantly chasing your tail either way.
Ultimately it'll be robots looking after the elderly, presumably. | |
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| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:54 - May 20 with 932 views | phillymark |
It's about scale. Globally, the leveling off of the population is a good thing. However the differences between countries mean that regionally the problems can be huge. countries in stage 5 of the demographic transition have a greying population (eg Japan) and are going to struggle mightily to maintain economic strength without massive immigration. Countries in stage 2 or 3 are seeing populations explode still and this brings about huge problems for jobs, education, slums etc.
This is a fun website to play with to see all this
https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2023/ | | | |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 13:57 - May 20 with 926 views | phillymark |
| Interesting that falling birth rates are seen as a problem on 12:47 - May 20 by bluelagos |
"Surely the global birth rates need to fall below 1 per adult not 2 per adult, for us to die out? One in one out? "
Yeah - the 2 quoted (it's 2.1 which I never understand) is per woman - so it's 1 per adult. |
it's 2.1 because some children will die before they reach child producing age themselves | | | |
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