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Maybe inappropriate to extrapolate from Italy
at 13:39 21 Mar 2020

Covid 19 is obviously going to be bad. But we should maybe not think it will be like Italy here. There is a very interesting study published by the NIH (US Government health research body) into excess mortality during the Spanish flu - i.e. the increase of the rate of death in a country over what would normally be expected. Ok, so not an exact statistic, but pretty indicative of relative impact.

For England and Wales it was +55% - pretty grim its true, but for countries the other side of the channel, considerably worse - Germany +73%, Spain + 87%.

Italy was +172%

Genetics? who knows , but an interesting and slightly reassuring pointer perhaps, at least for us, and in no way should diminish our sympathy for that poor ravaged nation.

Other things? I'm glad I'm not a smoker. Interesting that when you look at Chinese deaths, that they are significantly higher in men than women (and of course its mostly the elderly and there are more old women in China than men which is an amplifying factor on the statistic). About 50% of men smoke in China and very few women. Sort of sounds logical that it would be relevant that if you've been damaging your lungs with smoke for years that you would have a worse outcome.

But to finish on a positive. Actemra could hold the key to flattening the curve (at least as regards putting a lid on the number of severe cases). Trial to complete on 10 May but preliminary results before then;

"Regeneron Chief Scientific Officer George Yancopoulos told reporters that patients who received the Roche treatment “got out of death’s bed and walked out of the hospital.” Actemra has now been included in diagnosis and treatment plan for COVID-19 issued by China’s National Health Commission"

(From Biospace: "Roche Launches Phase III Study of Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug for COVID-19 Pneumonia")

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