I've always said that if a team can lose six or fewer, plus drawing no more than twice that number over the season, they'll be well in the mix for the top two. W28 D12 L6 is 96 points. I know this season is exceptional, but that would almost always see a team promoted automatically.
As things stand, we still have two losses and three draws "in the bank". Incredibly, we only have to win just over half our games to "break even".
As to our rivals, Leicester have already gone overdrawn on the losses account, but have a lot of leeway on the draws. Southampton similarly in the losses column and have used up over half their credit on draws. Leeds are on the limit for losses, but can still afford a few more draws. Obviously, going overdrawn on losses is 50% more damaging than on draws, so they're going to have to watch that closely. |  |
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