https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/05/a-pause-for-peace-is-the-b
'So it’s finally happening. The wider Middle East conflict that so many feared is igniting. Almost exactly a year after Hamas’s 7 October terrorist atrocities, Israel is fighting on multiple fronts. Iran is now the principal adversary. Israeli leaders, including the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, maintain that it always was. Netanyahu has long sought this showdown.
Self-deluding boasts that Israel is “winning”, bruited about after the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, drown out calls to halt the madness. Despite their otiose talk of changing the regional balance of power, Netanyahu, his far-right allies and generals lack a credible, long-term political strategy. Their whack-a-mole tactics condemn Israel and neighbours to war without end.
The same may be said of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the religious extremists who dominate Iran’s regime – and the surviving leaders of Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Nor should western reactionaries such as Donald Trump escape blame. All contribute to a destructive continuum of confrontation, violence and misery that is intensifying once again.
On every side, the self-fulfilling prophecies and divisive agendas of regressive, intolerant forces are acted out in blood. Hard-right fanatics typically expect the worst, reject conciliation and compromise, stick to their guns. And, sure enough, the worst happens. Moderate voices, such as Iran’s new president, are shouted down. Hapless Joe Biden is humiliated. The UN is slandered and ostracised, its aid workers killed. Peace becomes a dirty word. As ever, ordinary people suffer most. More than 1 million displaced in Lebanon; at least 1,000 killed in the past fortnight. More than 41,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza; almost the entire population homeless. Israeli citizens murdered, as in Jaffa last week, and thousands forced to flee; 101 hostages still unaccounted for.
How does this end? In short, badly – for all concerned.'
'Netanyahu’s self-serving, short-term military gambles – “he has no plan for the morning after, anywhere” – presage not victory but a strategic “disaster”, wrote the American commentator Tom Friedman. And here’s the thing: measured in terms of its chronic insecurity, global reputational damage, severe economic self-harm, breaches of international law, and surges in antisemitism, boycotts and disinvestment, Israel has already lost, big-time.
All of which underscores the original question: how does this end? Answer: it probably doesn’t. Like a modern rerun of the hundred years war, this Middle East conflict, rooted in injustice, hate and fear since 1948, may eventually be paused but it will not stop.
As long as rightwing extremists and religious zealots hold sway, fanning the flames and obstructing a just political solution, everyone’s a loser.'
[Post edited 5 Oct 2024 21:12]
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