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Even if we leave aside the matter of whether Putin actually intends to invade (on this occasion), keeping a large proportion of the active forces in position will be expensive and cannot be sustained indefinitely.
Moreover, we are all the time getting closer to the one thing which would block a large-scale Russian offensive:
Not the title, the band. Once the land thaws, there comes the infamous Rasputitsa, the mud which bogged down the German armies in WWII. Motorised/armoured troop movements become mostly impossible until the ground hardens again in the summer.
Tho, of course, an announced "withdrawal" could also be cover for the final movements and activity to actually launch an attack. Classic military strategy to point people's attention one way, then doing something completely different.
Tho, of course, an announced "withdrawal" could also be cover for the final movements and activity to actually launch an attack. Classic military strategy to point people's attention one way, then doing something completely different.
I think for all Russia's sabre rattling Putin really knows that ultimately he can't afford or sustain a war with Ukraine. I think this is potentially very good news.
Merry Christmas! on 10:30 - Feb 15 by vilanovablue
I think for all Russia's sabre rattling Putin really knows that ultimately he can't afford or sustain a war with Ukraine. I think this is potentially very good news.
The threat to axe NordStream is also significant. Oil and gas exports represent nearly a third of Russia's GDP. It's the sector where they can least afford to take a hit.
They might be able to capture Ukraine, but holding it is a different matter and would significantly weaken them elsewhere. This buildup has drawn in virtually all their best units from across Russia as it is.
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