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Did We Punch Above Our Weight This Season?
Did We Punch Above Our Weight This Season?
Friday, 16th May 2008 09:42

Stats expert, Naked Football Show contributor and TWTD columnist Chris Rand reckons Town's eighth place finish surpassed most expectations.

Of course, as football fans, we're required to have rather short-term memories, with the exception of irrational grudges against certain players and managers. I get the feeling that most Town supporters are feeling a little bit disappointed about eighth place in 2007/08.

But what were our expectations at the start of the season? More importantly in judging whether we did well or not, what were the analysts' expectations? Well, rewinding back to last August, here's how the bookies predicted the Championship to finish, based on the handicap betting. I've added the eventual final position of each team in brackets.

1 Charlton Athletic (11)
2 Wolverhampton Wanderers (7)
3 West Bromwich Albion (1)
4 Watford (6)
5 Sheffield United (9)
6 Southampton (20)
7 Leicester City (22)
8 Stoke City (2)
9 Crystal Palace (5)
10 Preston North End (15)
11 Sheffield Wednesday (16)
12 Norwich City (17)
13 Coventry City (21)
14 Cardiff City (12)
15 Ipswich Town (8)
16 Plymouth Argyle (10)
17 Burnley (13)
18 Bristol City (4)
19 Colchester United (24)
20 Blackpool (19)
21 Hull City (3)
22 Queen's Park Rangers (14)
23 Scunthorpe United (23)
24 Barnsley (18)

If you think they were being pessimistic about Town's chances (15th), may I suggest that we didn't think so at the time? I know that if I'd thought they were significantly underestimating how we'd do, I'd have been down to the bookies like a shot with my pocket money. I didn't, and I don't know of many Town fans who did.

So who did best? Not surprisingly, Hull outdid the bookies' expectations by a mile, as did Bristol City. Here's how many points each team got, compared to the bookies' predictions. I think fourth place is pretty creditable, don't you?

Hull City +19
Bristol City +15
Stoke City +9
Ipswich Town +7
Barnsley +5
West Bromwich Albion +3
Plymouth Argyle +2
Queen's Park Rangers +2
Crystal Palace +1
Burnley +0
Cardiff City -1
Blackpool -4
Scunthorpe United -5
Watford -7
Wolverhampton Wanderers -10
Norwich City -11
Sheffield United -11
Preston North End -12
Coventry City -13
Sheffield Wednesday -13
Charlton Athletic -17
Leicester City -19
Colchester United -21
Southampton -21

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