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Reply | Your favourite FA Cup third round memories
at 15:06 11 Jan 2025
Thought I'd chuck in a contrary one. Least favourite was the day we beat Villa 1-0. Walking out of the ground and thinking about likely fixture congestion I said to my Dad, "that's the title gone". I know you shouldn't really be sad when your team has won but I was that day (even though it was probably the best FA Cup "team goal" ever seen at PR that won the tie). Spent the rest of the season hoping I'd been wrong. But of course I wasn't. |
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Reply | Szmodics starting tonight
at 22:00 13 Aug 2024
Was at EP tonight. Result decided at 6.30 when team sheets came out. A load of academy lads with one player from Saturdays game. SS scored a straightforward goal, badly missed a one on one at the RE, ran about a bit, looked like an averagely good championship player. Sigurdsson by contrast really up for it and easily Rovers best forward. Fevrier the ex Col U lad looked more threatening than SS. In a more experienced team could well have got a goal tonight. SS subbed at 60 mins and interestingly at the end ran across the pitch to the far side and spent a while applauding the rovers fans. Read into that what you will. |
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Reply | Szmodics medical rumours quashed
at 18:48 13 Aug 2024
I’m at EP right now. County side full of raw youngsters. Unfortunately the sort who make mistimed bad tackles. |
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Reply | Ben Knight has left Man City
at 16:18 12 Aug 2024
Had to reply as a Town fan by birth and Stockport County fan by adoption (I have lived in Stockport for nearly 40 years) . Knight was on County's books for the second half of last season, but didn't play as he got injured immediately. Indicates the level he had reached maybe though - that City thought he should go to League 2 as a loanee.
Your mention of Malaga prompts me to mention a unique treble I had last season. We have a small place in Mijas and so we follow los Boquerones (as they are called) - my daughter's been to a couple of games at the Roselada.
So its three teams in our household - Town number one (obviously), County and Malaga. And last season County went up from (in effect) division 4 to division 3, Malaga went up from 3 to 2, and Town from 2 to 1. County were champions, Town runners up , and Malaga?
Via the play offs of course. That's got to be a unique set. |
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Reply | Blackburn 1968
at 14:56 1 May 2024
Blackpool finished third that season with 58 points. The highest ever for a side not in the top two I believe. If Leeds were to draw on Saturday they would equal that unpleasant record pro rata, taking into account the new points system and number of games. Here's hoping! |
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Reply | Blackburn 1968
at 14:28 1 May 2024
I was there aged 12 with my Dad and brother - all Woodbridgeans like yourself (guessing from the name!). A 1-1 versus Blackburn. Full pitch invasion and players carried on supporters backs round the pitch. The only time I've been on the pitch at the end of a promotion season until Nuneaton five years ago. Blackpool came with an amazing run and it had looked like we might not make it until two great away performances, the second against Portsmouth, who were at the top end of the table. The parallels are amazing. Ray Crawford scored that day as I recall. |
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Reply | I'm not a fan of Brendan Rodgers
at 13:15 28 Feb 2024
Interesting. As someone from Woodbridge originally who has lived in Stockport for nearly 50 years I have found that "lad" does the trick as its applied equally to men of ages from their teens to their nineties. "Evening lads" when greeting a group of friends is not in anyway condescending.
In the same way (though less common) "lass" can be used for ladies of all ages without causing offence I've found.
Therefore neither lad nor lass has the condescending potential of referring to people as boys or girls who are clearly more than say 20 years old. So that's what I use and so far in 50 years its not caused a problem.
Doubtless someone will disagree with that and say I've just got away with it for 50 years. Somehow I don't think so. People can tell from your tone, your facial expression and your attitude what's in your heart.
Maybe in NI where Mr Rodgers is from what he said is common and accepted usage. Or maybe he was pretty irritated by being asked the same question six times when he made it clear he wasn't going to answer that specific enquiry. So his comment showed his irritation perhaps.
"I've said I won't answer that question several times now, so its pretty poor of you to waste your interview time by persisting with it" might have been better if he had wanted to make his point perhaps, but one tends only to think of that sort of reply afterwards. |
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Reply | Second club?
at 13:51 12 Jun 2023
That's what happened with me. Woodbridge born and bred, came to Uni at Manchester 1974 and wanted to go to games at a club that needed my money, so went to Stockport County (not Utd or City) - div 4 in those days and got hooked.
Ended up living up here, in Stockport and have been to far more County games than Town over my life. I feel like I can fully support both as they are in different divisions (and when for a brief time they were in the same I always supported Town when they played so I guess I've not been disloyal to my roots).
The most important thing for me is that when I was a kid, I was brought up to support my local team unlike friends who adopted the successful clubs. Many were "Leeds supporters" (for a while!). And we have done the same. in my family. My daughter is County through and through (but also wants Town to do well).
And for those of you who haven't enjoyed trips to the back of beyond in League 1, spare a thought for her, whose friends are mostly armchair City fans (that's the default team in the South Manchester conurbation). While they were lauding premier league success, she was travelling to the likes of Guiseley and Brackley in NLN to watch awful games that County lost. I have done a bit of that too - there was village we went to in the FA trophy last year. Needham something... But maybe most committed of all - Dover Athletic away (via the drinks aisle at the Calais hypermarket, mind!).
So have I defected? I don't really think so - I'm checking for Town on flash scores every ten minutes at Edgeley Park on match days. |
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Reply | Accuracy of Xg, Xp estimates
at 12:25 12 May 2023
That's true to a considerable extent, which is why I think that the high profile that xG has obtained is because it enables every manager / scout to "watch" every other game being played on a given day, without having to attend the match, and then how that's been used by unusually successful clubs.
Its supposedly the technique (enhanced in the way that I mentioned by SmartOdds in a previous post) that has enabled Brentford to rise above the position one would expect of a club of their means by spotting players who are outperforming their stats in lower / foreign leagues and then snapping them up for a bargain price, benefitting from their superior performance and then selling on at a profit.
Of course, there's more to recruitment than that - the player has to fit your culture for instance - a star striker who is an objectionable git may detract more from the team than they add.
That's why football stats (like KPIs in business) draw your attention to important "whats" and comparing them with targets that should reasonably be achieved. The skill of management / analysts is in working out the why and how they should change things (if necessary) as a result. |
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Reply | Accuracy of Xg, Xp estimates
at 18:23 11 May 2023
From the XG data you can run multiple simulations of how actual games would have turned out - and its not as simple as the team with the higher xG always wins.
Imagine a game were I have a die with 5 sixes and one zero, then my average expected score from rolling the die will be 5. I give you a die with 5 zeros on it and one 6 - so your expected average score is 1. So it looks like I'll just win 5-1 all the time from the "xG" data But it doesn't work out like that. Here's why
We play a game where I roll my die and you then roll yours. Most of the time I win, but occasionally my zero will match with your six and you win and also, very occasionally we finish all square (this is known in the jargon used by experts as a "Plymouth deflection").
From those simulations you can calculate the number of times I get three points from the game and how many times one or even none - and the same for you. Weirdly that means that you can get matches where the total average expected points for each team adds to more than three!
Its from that process that so called "justice tables" can be calculated which shows where teams ought to finish based on their xG performance.
The fact that a side that should finish outside the top six actually wins the title would be described as a (statistical) injustice. I'm sure we can all agree on that  |
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Reply | Accuracy of Xg, Xp estimates
at 17:10 11 May 2023
Exactly! xG tells you rather more what and not much why. In the same way as a business might look at its enquiry conversion stats and find they are actually converting less than they had previously the reaction shouldn't be to conclude its not worth tracking enquiry conversion but rather to understand the reasons for under performance.
Not the best sales people on the good opportunities? Too slow to respond to customers so competitors were able to react, get organised and block the chance of getting a sale?
Parallels with what happens on a football pitch?
I believe SmartOdds assess more specific data that identifies not just where a shot occurred but how dangerous the attack was (e.g. slow and laborious vs quick counter attack / turn over of possession). I understand that this company is owned by the same guy who owns Brentford. Brentford's over achievement versus their financial clout a coincidence? |
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Reply | A bit bored, so pile in.
at 14:25 21 Feb 2023
When we were playing Ruskball at Stockport County in non-league we conceded several playing that way. But now, with a change of manager we still like to play it on the deck when we can, but now that we play out from the back, rather than at the back, and move the ball forward much faster, I can't think of a single silly intercept goal against.
Moving the ball out faster means we don't have nearly as much side to side stuff in the final third either - visiting sides don't have enough time to get organised into a low block. Tempting fate, but at the moment we are the form team of the division at home. |
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Reply | Ipswich are playing Ruskball — and it won’t succeed
at 18:43 5 Feb 2023
An excellently made alternative argument to mine. I've had a look at the xG for Ipswich this season and they have underscored by 10 (goals against virtually spot on expectation).
I think where we agree is that the right thing to do is not just decide that the xG statistic says we will be fine in the end, but to ask the question why we are under performing it. And your point, as I said, is very well made. Step one is to identify the root cause and then step two is to identify and implement a solution that will work. We simply don't know how far along that process the management team (by which I mean not just the football management team) has got, whether any potential solution will work and whether its all been left too late and promotion will now be via the play offs or next year.
What I would say is that its inconceivable that promotion won't happen this year or next, when you look at the off field professionalism and the investment that's being made. |
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Reply | Ipswich are playing Ruskball — and it won’t succeed
at 17:33 5 Feb 2023
"it's a reasonable indicator of the quality and number of opportunities a team creates or concedes".
I completely agree. It indicates what has been created. It doesn't predict that it will be converted, or conceded if its xG against. It tells you what, but it doesn't tell you why. Why if our xG is say three a game every game do we only score one a game? And why is it that in some games a team's actual is much closer to xG than others?
According to the xG experts the answer is variance. The question is whether the variance is statistical inevitability that given a long enough run will correct itself . So I expect when I toss a coin it will be heads half the time. I might get 4 heads in a row when I start. It won't mean I'll get four tails next, but after 100 tosses of the coin the 4-0 I started with will look more like 50:50.
Alternatively the variance could be due to some self imposed factor. That's the question the Ipswich management team should be asking itself.
For the moment, given that Ipswich are top on statistics, but falling away badly in the real world, they don't seem to have the answer. |
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Reply | Ipswich are playing Ruskball — and it won’t succeed
at 17:04 5 Feb 2023
And therein (and In Herbivore's reply) lies the problem with stats like xG. Its based on the likelihood of scoring from a given position based on an analysis of thousands of matches. The problem is variance from the mean. xG doesn't take into account what the opposition may be doing in your particular matches. If it takes a team much longer to arrive at a given shooting position than average then its likely the opposition will have a better block and the shooting team will heavily underachieve versus xG. Or if their chances fall mainly to their least competent "shooters" who generally perform below the average. .
I don't know what Leicester's xG versus actual stats would have been when they won the league with their counter attacking style but I bet their actual was much closer or even better than xG.
Averages are the bane of my life in trying to get companies to use the right KPIs (that's my job). Average lead time to customers is 5 days and target is 5, so we are doing fine they say. Except that the average calculation consists of 2 threes and 4 sixes; so actually its a fail two times in every three.
xG is an average expectation; treat it with extreme caution. My head is in the freezer and my feet are in the oven, so my average body temperature is just fine and I've nothing to worry about. |
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Reply | Ipswich are playing Ruskball — and it won’t succeed
at 13:57 5 Feb 2023
And its in those low scoring games that a big difference emerges. In the league games where Wednesday have only scored once (12 games) they have emerged with 27 points (2.25 per game). For Ipswich its 12 points from 10 such games (1.2 per game).
Ipswich have scored twice in 9 games and amassed 21 points from those matches. For Wednesday its 13 points from 5 such games. Still better but not by much.
Clearly Wednesday are much better at defending slender leads, so presumably better at not giving away chances to the opposition. |
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Reply | Ipswich are playing Ruskball — and it won’t succeed
at 12:33 5 Feb 2023
Hi Steve
I probably wasn't clear enough. When circumstances allow County play some wonderful on the floor football - for instance against Northampton a couple of weeks back. They are near the top and came to play, so so did County. My point is that against the more agricultural sides Challinor knows how to adapt, like yesterday against Tranmere. A real battle of a game. But County won that one too. What makes Challinor a popular manager is that he WANTS to play decent football. He just knows what to do when circumstances don't allow it.
From reading your board it sounds like McKenna wants to play the right way, which will be great if Ipswich are promoted to a higher level, but in League 1, being effective is as important as being nice to watch. Doesn't seem that Ipswich are very effective right now. |
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Thread | Ipswich are playing Ruskball – and it won’t succeed
at 11:44 5 Feb 2023
Just over three years ago Stockport County was bought by a very wealthy local businessman. After ten years of languishing in non-league (much of it at tier 6) he announced after taking over that the club was capable of playing at a much higher level; that challenging to reach the championship was the aim and that he was in a hurry.
Substantial investment in the stadium, which had been decaying for two decades followed immediately. The entire off-field set up was professionalised with a proper management structure staffed with people of quality. Quality was the watchword on the field too with players of pedigree from higher divisions being signed.
The most radical move they made was to sack the long serving manager. Modern thinking off the field had to be matched with modern thinking on it, it seemed. None of the fans had heard of the new man, Simon Rusk.
He had been plucked from Brighton’s player development set-up where he had an outstanding reputation for bringing young players through. For years this had been a gripe of the supporters — “we don’t see enough of our young lads make it”.
Does any of the what I’ve just written seem familiar to Ipswich fans?
So — premier league style thinking and the promise of youth players coming through. It all seemed wonderful.
Except it wasn’t. A new possession-based style was introduced. We dominated matches, but there were too many draws and by the end of the season Rusk hadn’t improved the club’s league position from when he had taken over and County ended in the play-offs.
They lost timidly to Hartlepool, the team who finished below them. Pools had much lesser resources but were managed by Dave Challinor, a man in his mid-forties who had been successful at this level with Fylde and blended modern style with old school nous about what it takes to get out from this level. Hartlepool went up to league 2.
The next season, things got much worse. Other sides had worked County out. They sat back. More draws but defeats too. County had developed a bad habit of dominating but then lapsing momentarily and giving bad goals away, from stupid back passes and he like. The fans had a name now for the endless backwards and sideways passing with no penetration — “Ruskball”
The owner didn’t mess around. Rusk was removed and replaced with…… Dave Challinor!! The transformation was staggering. Just a few weeks after being incapable of beating struggling Barnet, County smashed league 1 Bolton 5-3 in a cup replay (watch the video on BBC if you can find it — an FA Cup classic).
Challinor proved what the fans knew all along — we had very good players; but they hadn’t been allowed to play how they could. County were a country mile behind Wrexham and Chesterfield at the top when Challinor took over, but they were reeled in and Stockport were promoted with six points to spare.
This season the progress has continued after a period of early adaptation to the new level. County hit the play off places yesterday and a second promotion in two seasons is not unimaginable. Stockport, with new wealthy owners in a hurry have succeeded:
Not just because of the off field professionalisation
Not just because of heavy investment in good players
But because the owners were savvy enough to realise that at lower league level you need a manager who wants to play cultured stuff (County are a joy when they can get it down on the grass), but who knows how to mix it up and hand it out to the sides who don’t want to play.
And because the owners acted quickly enough to make the change before the opportunity to progress was lost.
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Reply | I appreciate stats can be both good and bad depending on your argument
at 13:18 24 Dec 2022
The particular stat I find interesting is our XG score at home. According to FootyStats its 2.38xG versus an actual of 1.73. So we are "underscoring" by two goals in every three games. The xG calculation is based on the average rate of scoring from all possible shooting positions across thousands of matches, so tells you what the "avergae team" can be expected to achieve.
So that means that at home we are not just an average team in that respect, but actually a pretty poor one (away from home the xG and the actual are much closer). Of course, the xG only tells you the what, not the why.
So why are we so poor at converting against the average expectation at home but less so away? Is it because different players end up in shooting positions at home versus away - and those players are particularly poor "shootists"? Or is it because at home we are too slow getting to the shooting positions and so the opposition is more set to block? Or is it that at home we have lots of shots from poor positions and away we are having shots from better positions for scoring, so there is less variability in the outcome?
I now live 220 miles away from my childhood Woodbridge home so don't see home matches any more and would be interested in the views of those who do. |
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Reply | Mathemeticians guide to the world cup
at 13:14 27 Nov 2022
Is it just me, or does his final "wall chart" showing who gets out of the groups and how the knock out games go show Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland all getting out of the same group and only Argentina getting out of theirs? |
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