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Reply | Did you know
at 10:53 4 May 2025
There isn't some limited pool of criminals and once they're all locked up there will be zero crime forever after. At least, if there was such a pool, almost everyone would be in it.
Crime is a cocktail of social inequality, warped incentive structures, peer pressure, ideology, and yes, some genuine thickos who commit crimes thoughtlessly. As Guthrum said in many cases we should be looking at the structure which incentivised the crime rather than the sole figure who happened to be in the right place at the right time to commit it. |
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Reply | I still don't understand xG - plus Delap and Enciso
at 14:43 23 Jan 2025
One example in particular can display how poor xG is at estimating things like game state and context.
Imagine a player takes a penalty, which the keeper saves, but can only push it back to the penalty taker, who now has a tap-in. Think Harry Kane vs. Denmark.
The penalty has xG of about 0.75, and the follow up shot has xG of about 0.75 as well for the sake of argument.
In these few seconds, according to xG, the striker is expected to score 1.5 goals, and they are seen to have underperformed significantly if they only score 1. This is despite the fact it was obviously impossible for them to score more than 1 goal from these chances!
It also can make some upsets look more ridiculous than they really were. Imagine a team takes a shock 1-0 lead early in the first half, and holds on to win 1-0. They probably have a pathetically low xG of 0.1 or something across the whole game, but that's only because they had no need to attack after going 1-0 up. If instead they scored their winner in injury time, maybe they would have an xG closer to 1 despite playing no better (arguably worse, having come significantly closer to a draw than in the first case) when you consider game state.
So yeah, it's typical Big Data in that it is typically bad for looking at individual shots or even matches, but generally proves itself correct over dozens of games |
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Reply | Santiago Jimenez at Feyenoord
at 15:21 25 Aug 2024
Would seem strange to me not to make use of the second loan slot from another Prem team we have available, and Striker is the only standout position left. Albeit I couldn't tell you who is available that would be good enough to start. |
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Reply | We’ve just witnessed one of the best last minute goals in England history
at 08:37 1 Jul 2024
Score an injury time overhead equaliser against Spain, France, Germany etc. and you're an instant legend
Do the same against Slovakia and people will rightly focus on the parts of the game we were rubbish in
This was like Iceland 2016 but bailed out by a moment of magic. The FA is nowhere near cool enough to do this but we should've sacked Gareth after the group stage because we look so uninspired and beatable. [Post edited 1 Jul 2024 8:37]
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Thread | We have two separate batches playing the same five teams in a row
at 09:39 18 Jun 2024
In December we play Bournemouth, Wolves, Newcastle, Arsenal, then Chelsea
And in April we play Bournemouth, Wolves, Chelsea, Arsenal, then Newcastle
Copy paste much?
At least they aren't quite in the exact same order both times! |
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Reply | Prefer to be promoted Tuesday or Saturday..
at 13:00 27 Apr 2024
There are some very practical reasons why getting autos is better than going up via playoffs
Give the players more of a summer break, give the coaches time to plan for the league they're gonna be in, contracts and financials known for longer, transfer targets can be finalised sooner letting you make offers etc. earlier, and more in a similar vein.
Of course in an emotional sense nothing beats winning the final at Wembley |
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Reply | Righto, I've done the Math
at 15:41 15 Apr 2024
If everything went our way it is actually possible for us to be promoted after winning the Hull game
Would require Leeds to get max 1 point from Boro (A) and QPR (A)
And would also require Southampton to get max 7 points from Preston (H), Cardiff (A), Leicester (A), and Stoke (H)
Would leave us 4 points ahead of both with them only having 1 game left each
No need to only focus on the nightmare scenarios is my point! |
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Reply | Just clocked that when Coventry play us it will be their 4th game in 10 days
at 21:54 3 Apr 2024
If they've won all three then they have an FA Cup final waiting and players will be distracted, maybe trying to avoid injuries even. I don't believe this late in the season anyone can actually handle that kind of congestion without exhausting the team, it would be extremely hard even at the start of the season. Cov just have got to be knackered by the time they reach the end of their gauntlet and play us. |
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Thread | Just clocked that when Coventry play us it will be their 4th game in 10 days
at 21:42 3 Apr 2024
Makes a hard-looking fixture seem significantly easier, surely they will just be utterly shattered. Meanwhile it's our second game after that big break (meaning everyone warmed up in case they got a little rusty over that break).
More I look at it more I think we're heading for around 99 points by the end. |
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Thread | 28 points won from losing positions
at 22:48 5 Mar 2024
Surely that is a record both for our team and for this division, even with all the games still to go. Never known a side with such an indomitable spirit, they truly never let heads drop. Rotherham being the best possible example but tonight is also remarkable after the deflations of going behind a second time and the pen not scored. |
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Reply | "Experts"
at 10:52 25 Jan 2024
Skripals - no Russian narrative to speak of, since as far as they wanted to portray they had no involvement. Hence naturally nothing to print on ther behalf
MH17 - admittedly I can't really remember how this was covered in the initial days. Hard to imagine they gave significant scrutiny in the immediate aftermath to Russia's claims that it was basically Ukraine's fault.
Crimea - yes, they clearly hesitated to print the obvious fact that this was a Russian military occupation, not an impromptu action of Crimean civilians
War in Ukraine - we have just seen in the last day or two how many outlets still treat Russian official claims not just as credible sources but as outright facts with regards to saying with no proof what was on this plane. The same has happened many times vis-a-vis the Nova Khakovka dam, casualty claims, territorial claims, and so on. The logic is clearly print first, fact check later. |
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Reply | "Experts"
at 23:09 24 Jan 2024
As I understand it, the Russian narrative has been challenged on several details:
1. The suitability of the plane, as you mention
2. Previous POW exchanges were done via truck or bus
3. The plane in question via FlightRadar24 is believed to have travelled from Iran - obviously no Ukrainian prisoners are in Iran
4. Prisoners named by Russia to have died in the crash are actually matches for the names of prisoners that were already exchanged long ago. Not just one or two which could be a coincidence, but sixteen.
5. Lack of bodies in sufficient numbers seen in photographs of the crash site. Only two bodies can be seen.
6. Extremely fast and co-ordinated messaging from Russian officials, no delay or confusion at all, which could be a sign of a bottled excuse being ready for the next time one of their transport planes went down
Even without all of these, on any dispute my first instinct would be to assume Russia is lying because their track record is horrendous. I'm basically certain this plane was not full of Ukrainian hostages. If only Western media outlets could show the same levels of very justified skepticism rather than just uncritically printing Russian claims. [Post edited 24 Jan 2024 23:10]
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Reply | Barton upping the ante
at 23:44 5 Jan 2024
Hilarious that you try to imply Barton is somehow being silenced by saying you can't go against the grain when his comments are plastered everywhere and it's the most relevant he's been in years. Especially as his comments basically amount to wanting to actually deplatform someone else, the commentators in question. |
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Reply | Anyone been put onto Sertraline for their MH
at 16:49 3 Jan 2024
Was on this for a few months. I didn't see any MH effects from it, and only one side effect - reduced ability to gain an erection. This was the case even after increasing dosage. Same exact story for Venlafaxine. Now I don't take any drug. |
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Reply | Mental health
at 10:10 18 Jul 2023
Best I can say is that avoiding situations that would act as triggers is what works best for me. It's all about forward planning. About medication - others e.g. Bankster have shared their experiences, in my experience I tried two different types of antidepressant (Sertraline and Venlafaxine, an SNRI and SSRI respectively) in increasing dosages and neither had any effect on me mentally, only some minor physical side effects, as a result I am currently unmedicated having not bothered to talk to a doc about this sort of thing for over half a year I think. I also got to try out NHS Talking Therapies, on a platform called Silver Cloud. It was too impersonal and formulaic for me to take it seriously to be honest, maybe it works for some people but I think if you have long term problems it's pointless. Private may be better, never done it. In conclusion my recommendation is to recognise what stresses you out and plan ahead so that you come across it as little as possible, meds and therapy are worth trying but not necessarily going to help. |
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Thread | Overall you have to be pretty content with that Easter weekend
at 13:43 11 Apr 2023
Some are going back ages to say you would have taken 25 points from 9 games but I think you really don't need to labour the point so heavily like that. Our 4 points and +4 GD from two games is better than any of the other top 4. We gained on most of them in terms of points. And that was with a right barsteward away game that almost everyone struggles at and a team trying to reach the playoffs. Plymouth lost at home to Lincoln for christ's sake, get some context if you think we didn't have a good Easter weekend. |
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Reply | Chinese spy balloon
at 11:00 4 Feb 2023
Reckon the Chinese are just seeing how the US reacts. What can a balloon see that a satellite can't nowadays? It's brinksmanship. |
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Site Scores| Forum Votes: | 43 | | Comment Votes: | 50 | | Prediction League: | 0 | | TOTAL: | 93 |
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