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The Skuse Douglas Paradox - stats.
at 11:06 5 Apr 2017

Hi All,

Last nights relieving result against Wigan got me thinking. A lot of people on here, and in the stadium, are very critical of Skuse and Douglas' performance, and are adamant that when they don't play, ITFC will play more attractive football, score more goals and general have an altogether better product (win or lose)

My aim is to see if statistics bear this out.

I've gone through all games (league and cup) this season and calculated various statistics. I will say at this point I have no real malice or bias towards either player, but I am interested to see if the fans are right in their criticism of these two players.

What I will do is analyse town's games this season, then look at both players individually, then both together, then when neither of them play. So... enough dribble let's see some numbers!

Total Games: 43
Percentage Won: 25.58%
Percentage Not Won: 74.42%
Percentage Drawn: 39.53%

Total Goals Scored: 43 (1 per game)
Total Goals Conceded: 53 (1.23 per game)

So, that's our entire stats for the season thus far, I don't expect these numbers to change much over the rest of the season. Now, onto the players themselves!

Cole Skuse
Total Games: 36
Percentage Won: 25%
Percentage Not Won: 75%
Percentage Drawn: 41.66%

Total Goals Scored: 35 (1.02 per game)
Total Goals Conceded: 44 (1.22 per game)

Because Skuse has been a mainstay of the first 11 for most of the season, his statistics are extremely close to the overall teams, and nothing can be concluded from this alone... Onwards!

Jonathan Douglas
Total Games: 21
Percentage Won: 14.28%
Percentage Not Won: 85.71%
Percentage Drawn: 38.10%

Total Goals Scored: 11 (0.52 per game)
Total Goals Conceded: 21 (1 per game)

Douglas' stats are a bit more telling, 14% win-rate along with just over half a goal per game shows that when Douglas plays, the bus gets parked. This is backed up with the improvement of goals conceded. Unfortunately this doesn't work as the worsened drawing statistics shows an increase in losses.

Skuse and Douglas together
Total Games: 17
Percentage Won: 17.64%
Percentage Not Won: 82.35%
Percentage Drawn: 41.17%

Total Goals Scored: 9 (0.42 per game)
Total Goals Conceded: 14 (0.82 per game)

17.64% winrate when both Skuse and Douglas feature. One would expect an increase in draws with such a defensive lineup, and this is true, but interestingly, not as much as when Skuse plays on his own.

This does however, appear to produce far fewer goals scored.

When neither play
Believe it or not, but only three games in the entire season thus far has not features either Skuse or Douglas, so the statistics cannot be fully trusted, but here they are.

Total Games: 3
Percentage Won: 66.66%
Percentage Not Won: 33.33%
Percentage Drawn: 33.33%

Total Goals Scored: 5 (1.66 per game)
Total Goals Conceded: 2(0.66 per game)

Conclusions?
Look at the statistics and draw your own in the replies below :)

edit: can't into maths.

[Post edited 5 Apr 2017 14:55]

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