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An Assessment of Mick McCarthy's Management So Far
Written by KBsSocks on Sunday, 28th Sep 2014 02:57

Having passed the total days-in-job of Paul Jewell and The Dark Lord (and Jackie Milburn) and now fast-approaching 700 days in post, Mick McCarthy's next target is Jim Magilton's and John Duncan's 1050-odd days, which is in a year's time, more-or-less.

Let's have a look at the percentages compared to his predecessors: Wins at Home 57.8%. Bettered only by Sir Alf (60%), similar to John Duncan. OK, different times, different divisions ...

Losses at Home 20.0%. Bettered only by Sir Alf (19.4%) and Bill McGarry (13.8%).

Points per game at Home, 1.96. Bill McGarry (1.99*) and Sir Alf (2.03*).

Home Goals Against 0.43/game. Bettered by nobody.

Away Goals Against 0.70/game. Equalled by Joe Royle. None better.

So, this much we know, and some of this some of us complain about. If we lose the next six games 2-0, these figures change:

Home Goals Against 0.46/game. Bettered by Sir Bobby and John Duncan.

Away Goals Against 0.72/game. Bettered by Joe Royle, equalled by George Burley.

We've been the best we've ever been at home, and in defence.

So, improvement needed ? Of course. Mick has the worst goalscoring record for any ITFC manager, 1.24/game overall. Apart from Roy Keane (1.21/game).

Lose the next six 2-0, buddy, and it'll drop to 1.16/game.

Home Goals For is 0.77/game, similar to John Lyall (0.74), Bobby Ferguson (0.75), Paul Jewell (0.79). Well ahead of TDL Roy Keane (0.56). Not esteemed company, there, Mickyboy.

Away Wins: Mick McCarthy 25% of them. Jim Magilton (22%), John Lyall and Scott Duncan (21%) and Jackie Millburn (12%) have worse away win records.

Away points per game: Mick McCarthy, 1.06, JIm Magilton 0.97, John Lyall 1.02*, Bobby Ferguson 0.99*, Jackie Milburn 0.56*, Scott Duncan 0.90*.

As some have observed, we don't score freely, and we don't travel well.

Okay, so has there been improvement? This season is only nine games old.

Let's look at the last 35 games, from 1st January 2014 (Mick has been here 93 games, so that's a bit more than 1/3 the total).

Overall P93

HW 58% HD 22% HL 20% 1.96pt/game HF 0.77 HA 0.43

AW 25% AD 31% AL 44% 1.06pt/game AF 0.46 AA 0.70

MM 2014 P35

HW 56% HD 28% HL 17% 1.94pt/game HF 0.71 HA 0.46

AW 24% AD 24% AL 53% 0.94pt/game AF 0.46 AA 0.69

Marginally harder to beat at home, but more draws at Portman Road in the last third of games under .

Goalscoring not great. Defence just as good. Away form a bit worse.

This season? Too young to tell, but:

P10 (includes Crawley)

HW 80% HD 0% HL 20% 2.40pt/game HF 0.80 HA 0.20

AW 20% AD 40% AL 40% 1.00pt/game AF 0.50 AA 0.60

If only we'd drawn the Narwich game :-)

Looks extremely similar, no? Does MM know this? Is he a dinosaur, or...?

*Would have bettered this had they been on three points for a win.




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loudnproud added 10:30 - Sep 28
You can make statistics read anything you want them to read.....MM may have not bought "pretty looking football" to our club but he has bought stability and a belief we can perform. This is good enough for me.......long may it continue.
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KBsSocks added 13:20 - Sep 28
You can't make these statistics read anything you want :-) But I'm with you, and just giving a statistical "voice" to the naysayers - and the yahay-sayers (like me). Basically, we're doing pretty well under Mick. Can we do even better ? And where could we/he do better ?
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loudnproud added 18:25 - Sep 28
see your point......KBS....perhaps the icing on the cake will be announced on Monday with a "Williams loan deal"....:-)
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MVBlue added 22:42 - Oct 5
Stato!
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radiogaga added 13:16 - Oct 13
I'm not knocking your detail, you've obviously gone into a lot of research to get these stats, but they're a nonsense in many cases.

"If Town lose the next six games 2-0", I mean seriously, what a load of utter rubbish. I'm willing to bet 20 freddo bars that such a sequence of results won't happen.

I never witnessed the John Duncan days (or Scott Duncan as you incorrectly refer to him) but a great deal of criticism came his way. McCarthy will never be everyone's cup of tea because we don't play beautiful brazilian style football, but sense of reality is needed. We have been a mediocre championship club for a number of years. What stats don't tell you is how McCarthy has brought these stats to a par with (and better than) other managers even though for the 6 months of his reign, we were a total mess relying on a disjointed squad of big money flops, below standard free transfers and uninterested loan signings. The goals for might not set the world alight, but throw these stupid stats out of the window and take a look at the league table, they are the stats that really matter. Look at them, and you will see that we are 2 points off top, possess one of the best defensive records in the division and possess one of the league's top goalscorers.

People have short memories, we'd be in League 1 were it not for McCarthy.
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KBsSocks added 21:40 - Oct 14
@radiogaga - these stats are NOT a nonsense :-P They are statistics.

If MM lost the next six games 2-0 shows what sort of difference would be made to the stats: not a lot.
" So, this much we know, and some of this some of us complain about. If we lose the next six games 2-0, these figures change:
Home Goals Against 0.46/game blah blah blah
We've been the best we've ever been at home, and in defence. "

Means, even if we lose the next six games 0-2, we would still be the best we've ever been at home and in defence. OK ? And, no surprises, we didn't lose the next six games 0-2. Your 20 Freddo bars are safe. Such a sequence of results is 100% certain not to happen, as it happens (as it has ALREADY happened).

For your information and edification, Scott Duncan managed ITFC for 6,481 days until August 1955. A different Mr. Duncan, and one not called John. You mention short memories ?!

As for throwing these stupid stats out of the window, you can happily do that - but they won't go away. You cannot undo history, nor the games that ITFC have played under their various managers at various times. They are the facts we can discuss and interpret - and see where Mick has done good, and where he might like to improve.

(There are some errors, a couple being mine - the goalscoring records of Mick and RK are 0.62 and 0.60 / game, rather than the unlikely figures above; other errors have been edited in - but the basics of the report is the same).

Thanks for reading, radiogaga, and adding your thoughts on the qualitative side of Mick's management - which I happen to agree with. These stats show why we're sixth at present - and what I expect to happen in future months: all positive, and with improvements in the less favourable statistics :-)




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