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Comparing Mick to Mick and to Joe Royle
Written by KBsSocks on Thursday, 7th Apr 2016 08:59

What's the difference this season, comparing Mick McCarthy's 40 games this season to his previous 140?

Goals at Home

We've scored 48% fewer goals at home this season compared to all Mick's previous home games.

This means we've won 17% fewer games, drawn 10% more and lost 7% more. At home.

And, compared to last season, the figures are worse: 59% fewer goals per game at home than last season (1.15 v 1.74) and 12% more goals per game conceded at home, meaning: 25% fewer games won at home, 12% more lost than last season.

Why? I'll leave that one to you to work out. Do the crowd and confidence and expectations have anything to do with it? And what about service and flair?

Anyway, even if we win the remaining three at home 2-0,
we'll have scored 26% fewer goals per game at home
than during the whole of Mick's previous tenure.

Goals Against

We're letting in 17% fewer away and about the same at home as during McCarthy's prior 140 games.

Goals scored at away grounds is about 8% more than previously. We're a bit better at scoring, away. The defence seems to be pretty consistent, overall.

I think McCarthy's biggest difficulty this season has been his previous home form. It had been excellent (see my previous Blog).

Moving on, to compare to Joe Royle, who had 184 games in charge to McCarthy's 180 games:

Home: McCarthy 9% fewer losses, 9% better goal difference.
Away McCarthy 0.4% fewer losses, 1.7% more draws, 11% worse goal difference.
Points per game - McCarthy: 1.51, Royle: 1.53.

Okay, so overall results the same. The main difference? You guessed it - goals scored and goals conceded.

McCarthy: 37% fewer home goals for but 46% fewer home goals against.
McCarthy: 33% fewer away goals for and 22% fewer away goals against.

Goals Per Game

Royle: Home for 1.89. Home against: 1.37. Home goal difference: 0.52. Away for: 1.36. Away against: 1.42. Away goal difference: -0.07.

McCarthy: Home goals for: 1.52. Home against: 0.91. Home goal difference: 0.61. Away for: 1.09. Away against: 1.43. Away goal difference: -0.35. Overall, 180 games.

This season: Home for: 1.15. Home against: 0.90. Home goal difference: 0.25. Away for: 1.15. Away against: 1.30. Away goal difference: -0.15.

Which equals not so interesting to watch, I guess! (but more interesting than previously to travel).

Is it time for Mick to go? Was it time for Joe to go?! I personally think Mick's doing fine - and the defence isn't as goal-shippy as has been made out. It's on the home front that we've failed to find the net.

Please sort it, MM, TC - and ME!

COYB and COYB Fans :-D




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TotalBlue added 09:54 - Apr 7
Excellent article, ok I am a sad stato but always interesting to see. Although I am very grateful for what Marcus has done saving out club from certain demise, I now hope he can find a way round FFP to spend some money and give Mick a decent war chest for next season.
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PortmanTerrorist added 12:54 - Apr 7
Love the stats. However they do not give an indication of how poor our performances have been at home, even when we have won.

So....here is one stat that is not mentioned; year on year decline in season ticket sales. Bet that is the one that is worrying ME, if not then it should be if folks are being truthful re their intentions on renewal on this forum and in other forums/radio/etc!
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ElephantBlue added 15:19 - Apr 7
Overall then Joe Royal did a better job. Both have the same points per game but Joe served up more goals at both ends. More goals = more entertainment. I would much prefer to watch a 3-3 draw than a 0-0 one even though the 'result' is the same.
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blue75 added 19:32 - Apr 7
Had Sheepshanks not let Big Joe go, he would've got the money he always asked for every January, when Evans took over and we would have gone up playing good football! unlike the crap we've been watching since he left apart from Jim's 1st season.
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grumpyblue1966 added 11:31 - Apr 10
Total blue you hope Marcus gives Mick money to spend on player's next season. I'll tell you now he will not give Mick no money when was the last time we spent massive on a player/s the only thing Mick will get are freebies that no other club want or loans.are club is in £80+ million in debt so yes he is doing a great job so much so he is ripping fans off by making season tickets the most expensive in the championship. What's are average gate 16.000 + I remember when not so long ago we where getting gates 28.000+ so no he has made our club no better but worse the sooner he f☆☆ks off the better. And Mick can go as well his hoof football and tatics are awful unless things change in a big way we are doomed under this bunch of clowns

e
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mutters added 12:51 - Apr 12
BFJ had his shot and didn't deliver. Over the last 10+ years he has had the best squad to operate with, and he couldn't get us up. He's a good manager, but for me he failed at Town, more so than those that had more limited resources.
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Big_Steve added 14:18 - Apr 12
Why the focus on the comparison between Big Fat Joe and MickM Why just BFJ? Why not include SuperJim, MadRoy and FoolJewell into the mix? What would that tell us? Does it actually matter?

For what it's worth, I still think that had Joe, maybe Jim and now Mick had the money to spend that Keane and PJ wasted (which is still peanuts compared to our peers) then we'd have made it back in the Prem or certainly have been a stronger year on year position of going up maybe perhaps yo-yo-ing. And we'd have done it playing a damned sight more entertaining football than what we've seen at PR in a while.

Would be interesting to see an analysis of stats for bums on seats (with entertainment and/or success - preferably both - raising average attendances which improves the atmosphere which creates a positivity around the club which improves performances which increases the likelihood of success/entertainment) and how they changed season on season and by manager to manager.


0

portmanteau added 13:22 - Apr 13
I have decided to keep a sense of proportion. We are 8th and the 16 clubs below us would probably give their right arms and legs to be where we are. While we are moaning and groaning think what supporters of say Notts Forest Wolves QPR etc are going through. NF particularly, their supporters must be thinking we are Barcelona compared to their mob. I dont hear of them burning the place down ( at least not yet....)
Naturally I would like to see new Town owner, manager, players but it isnt going to happen so instead of wishing/expecting to see us play like Leicester every week I will lower my sights and look forward to the usual one or possibly two occasions each season when by some miracle we actually turn in a good performance.
2

geminimustang added 18:08 - Apr 13
Rafa Benitez had a load of stats thrown at him recently and his answer was logical enough for me.He said every season was different,different players,maybe different manager,different game,etc so stats are of interest but you can't compare any two games as everything is different.He's right in my book.MM & TC have done a great job with no money for transfer fees.If i owned ITFC and they owed me £80M,would i throw another £10M in?No,so i understand ME.However,next season will be tougher with the 3 teams coming down who will have money to spend.Can ITFC improve and get promoted?Not to be realistic.Had the chance and missed it,sorry to say.No-one to blame,football is dominated by too much money and MM hasn't had enough.
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KBsSocks added 23:48 - Apr 13
@Big_Steve "Why the focus on the comparison between Big Fat Joe and MickM Why just BFJ? Why not include SuperJim, MadRoy and FoolJewell into the mix? What would that tell us? Does it actually matter?"

I previously compared MM to PJ and RK when MM reached their total games in charge. I missed out a comparison with JimM (and ScottDuncan) - it didn't seem to tell us anything new at that time.

Now MM (180 games in charge) has neared JoeRoyle's total (184 final total), hence time for a comparison. And it IS comparing apples with apples, in many ways - Big Joe didn't get us up; neither has Mick M ... yet. Similar times (2002-2006), not ancient history (before the Premiership, say).

What do the analyses tell us ? Probably what we already feel - see the blogs, anyway.

Does it actually matter ? Erm. Not compared to many important things, maybe not :-)

As for your suggestion about a correlation between bums on seats and league position / playing style factored in, maybe that's do-able. Not this week, sorry - remind me in the close season, and I'll see what I c'n do fer ya :-D
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