| Realism 13:29 - Sep 1 with 3125 views | ThatBlue |
I think it's time we got realistic. I'm a Town fan and I'm on cloud 9 because of the start we've had but I work for a company that specialises in data analysis/forecasting of football matches (for gambling syndicates) and to say our numbers are alarming is an understatement. Both home and away the only side actually worse than us are Burton and that's by a very small margin. The second we stop scoring 80% of our chances we'll find ourselves in real trouble (and it's only a matter of time). We either need to start creating more chances or we're in for another very tough season, luckily we've given ourselves a nice head start but we need more and moreover when our form does fall of a cliff we need to get behind this team because they're overachieving at the moment and setting the bar of expectation way to high. Football isn't played on paper and I would love to see us stay where we are but there is a reason Millions and millions are staked on our algorithms & similar ones every week |  |
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| Realism on 13:34 - Sep 1 with 3079 views | Steve_M |
Most fans are realistic but, as has been pointed out many times, the raw stats on shots on target do not reflect the balance of the matches at Millwall and against Brentford (I believe that was the case at Barnsley as well but wasn't there).
We have several players scoring goals which gives us something we didn't have last season which will make us a more effective side. We'll still finish between 10th and 15th anyway.
And "but there is a reason Millions and millions are staked on our algorithms & similar ones every week"
Yep, it's something to do with the relentless encouragement for fans to gamble in every sporting advert and the bookies' desire to milk fans for as much as possible. |  |
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| We've got about 25% of..... on 13:36 - Sep 1 with 3062 views | Bloots |
....the points we need to stay up from less than 11% of the season.
Stick that up your algorithm. |  |
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| Realism on 13:47 - Sep 1 with 3016 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
Statistically there are 22 sides worse than us at present. But I take your point.
I think most fans still think that a top half finish would be a job well done, no one is really expecting a promotion push.
You also have to take into account the fact that we have a lot of first team players out, so our possession stats etc should improve once we get something close to our strongest XI out on the pitch. |  |
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| Realism on 13:48 - Sep 1 with 2999 views | Herbivore |
We need more speculative 25 yarders so we can dominate games Brentford style. |  |
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| Realism on 13:56 - Sep 1 with 2979 views | Guthrum |
The problem with statistical norms is that they are based on past events. The assumption that we will not be able to maintain a very high level of scoring efficiency isn't predicated on the actual situation, but instead an assumption founded on previous, not strictly relevant events.
As an analyst, you'll know there are always outliers, which simply cannot be legislated for, such as lowly Blackburn's remarkable hold over Newcastle last season. What was your system's prediction for our own home fixture against the Geordies? I'm guessing it wasn't a 3 - 1 win to Town.
Additionally, are our chances, when they come, of better quality than most (i.e. not speculative punts from range, or dribblers straight at the 'keeper)? Does the set-up create more space to get a decent shot away? |  |
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| Realism on 14:55 - Sep 1 with 2890 views | Illinoisblue |
so you're saying we and other clubs are in trouble if we don't convert chances? Where do I sign up for this kind of insight? |  |
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| Realism on 15:01 - Sep 1 with 2871 views | Darth_Koont |
I thought it was 80% of our shots on target rather than chances which presumably is total shots. I know little about your business but I'm guessing your forecasting will be way off if you get those confused. |  |
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| Realism on 17:24 - Sep 1 with 2762 views | mutters |
Yep and these are the same algorithms that didn't see Leicester winning the Premier League or Blackpool reaching the Premier League.
There is always a chance |  |
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| Realism on 19:20 - Sep 1 with 2683 views | muccletonjoe |
I think only a very small percentage of town fans expect the team to stay where they are. Quite frankly there isnt a cat in hells chance. Where we will end up very much depends now on how soon we get players back from injury. If we can go into the local derby game with huws , webster and smithy all back and fully fit , then maybe top half is possible. |  | | |
| Realism on 19:34 - Sep 1 with 2656 views | The_Romford_Blue |
'Both home and away the only side actually worse than us are Burton'
That's interesting as I'd say the season so far shows that the following teams have been worse than us:
Leeds
Wolves
Sheffield Utd
Nottingham Forest
Preston
Hull
Middlesbrough
QPR
Reading
Derby
Bristol City
Fulham
Barnsley
Sheffield Wed
Millwall
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Birmingham
Burton
Norwich
Brentford
Bolton |  |
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| Realism on 19:41 - Sep 1 with 2623 views | J2BLUE |
Interesting stuff. I do take it with a pinch of salt though. I spent last season following a very well known member of the gambling community who has earned my trust through the years and he just about broke even over the season using the same approach that had made a lot in previous years.
At the end of the day stats are stats. Watch Sky News for a day or so and they have so many stats they are pretty much meaningless now. They can cherry pick from their database to make a player sound as good or bad as they want to present. |  |
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