| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) 12:16 - Nov 1 with 3965 views | pafcprogs |
Bear with me as to why an Argyle fan would post this on here
Ipswich...US VC owned , highish budget, well regarded and clearly excellent coach, regular 25K+ crowds and riding deservedly high in the table, strong squad, score goals and win regularly
Argyle....single fan owned ( with minority outside investors...some of which jumped ship when Leeds were available), wealthy but not super-rich, on a course to break even, so lowest budget in the league for wages , investment channeled at player /facility development, excellent coach, as close to the play-offs as to relegation. 16K crowds due to ground capacity but looking at ways to increase. Score goals but lose more than they win
Wednesday Single owner, ground mortgaged, new ( 3rd) coach of the season, unproven at club level , late paying HMRC, players not paid/paid late (tbc), 20k+ crowds, rock bottom but just had first win. Struggle to score.
In each case my question to the owners would be ...why?
Obviously I am familiar with Simon Hallet at Argyle. he is a fan, he wanted to build a community asset, he has always said he cannot fund an EPL club and would seek outside investment, but that he wanted to build a sustainable Championship club....so far he has delivered all he has promised and whilst not a ceiling a such, we would as a club be content to retain Championship status and gain access to the improved revenue streams that come with it.
Gamechanger intrigue me. They are an investment fund so presumably they want to turn a profit on every investment ( but recognise some won't.) How do they do that from Ipswich....it either has to be from revenues increasing because of promotion, but unless you invest heavily on going up, assuming you do, that means it is a one year Blackpool style promotion....or player sales ( Argyle have already signalled that as they bought Whittaker and Mumba through an internal player fund...so effectively a percentage of any sales fees gets reinvested and the rest becomes the fund profit....)
So is there an exit plan for Gamechanger....or are they going to buck the trend and be a successful and profitable EPL club?
Wednesday are the one I would be worried to support. High budget, low achievement ( in that they have merely returned to where they were but are struggling to stay there so far), no apparent long term strategy ( unless you count lifetime season tickets). Ageing squad ( something that is also applicable to sections of the Town squad but clearly being addressed in a window by window basis). Owner & fans disconnected completely, on the slippery slope financially of antagonising HMRC? If you want to buy Wednesday and someone might, you would wait for the disaster to strike and drive the price down...ground is an issue but not insurmountable.
So three clubs that shared a promotion, three models of ownership, three currently very different trajectories.
I'd be interested to get a Blues perspective on my take on your owners.....and how that pans out if you get promoted....or if you don't.
Shame we scored three at PR and still lost....my concern for us is we need to improve the defensive side of the squad...we have several injuries and it looks like whilst Gibson is a find we need some more nous at the back and some steel in the middle...but gut feel is we will be Ok this season and will build again....
Good luck against Fulham....
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:21 - Nov 1 with 2908 views | J2BLUE |
It likely ends with a sale if we get to the Prem and get established. Just got to hope they will look to sell to someone decent and hopefully not to a government owned fund from Saudi Arabia/Qatar etc. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:22 - Nov 1 with 2900 views | GeoffSentence |
The owners are carpetbaggers.
The club is a franchise.
The players are mercenaries.
Just getting that out of the way. Saving someone a job. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:25 - Nov 1 with 2855 views | MaySixth |
Google it mate, loads out there on them and their objectives. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:30 - Nov 1 with 2816 views | Dubtractor |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:21 - Nov 1 by J2BLUE |
It likely ends with a sale if we get to the Prem and get established. Just got to hope they will look to sell to someone decent and hopefully not to a government owned fund from Saudi Arabia/Qatar etc. |
This, basically.
The ownership group have made no secret of the fact that they need to see a return on thir investment. They equally do seem to care about the club and support though, and the level of engagement is light years ahead of what we had under the previous owner. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 with 2813 views | trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 with 2799 views | DanTheMan |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:30 - Nov 1 by Dubtractor |
This, basically.
The ownership group have made no secret of the fact that they need to see a return on thir investment. They equally do seem to care about the club and support though, and the level of engagement is light years ahead of what we had under the previous owner. |
They wouldn't have invested in some of the less important things like Town TV if they weren't in it for the long haul. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:36 - Nov 1 with 2755 views | homer_123 |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by DanTheMan |
They wouldn't have invested in some of the less important things like Town TV if they weren't in it for the long haul. |
Not necessarily the case. To 'maximise' their return they need to ensure they offer the best possible version of Town to any prospective buyer, so even the small things count. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:41 - Nov 1 with 2722 views | _clive_baker_ |
The end game for Gamechanger is relatively straight forward. People always cite football clubs as crazy investments but I'm not sure I agree at the right price. Your main exposure to your top line is through league status and TV revenues, but when you're buying a club in L1 with next to no TV monies, and the valuation reflects that, you're not that exposed to downside risk. What other industry do you have 80% of revenue pretty much guaranteed every year from blind loyal fans (customers), with absolutely no exposure to competition.
They paid £40m for a club with broadly £15m of turnover and minimal downside risk from there given the size of the fan base and the fact L1 TV monies were a fraction of that. There were very real reasons to believe they could add £10m to that with promotion, more TV money, a higher functioning commercial function, shirt sales, higher gates, which we've achieved already. From the point of acquisition it's fairly straight forward to trade at relatively sustainable operational losses (losing £5m - £10m a year, but with the ability to reign that back if they so wish), and that's before player trading.
On that, they're investing in young assets with upside potential, the only players we've paid meaningful fees for are Davis, Hirst, Clarke, Taylor and Broadhead. All British, max 25 years old, all with PL academy experience and all circa £1m - 1.5m. You only need a fairly low hit rate to see a return on that, and Davis alone must be worth more than we paid for all 5 of those combined. Not to mention Hirst and Broadhead who I wouldn't sell for south of £5m each.
The golden ticket is promotion to the premier league, at which point the revenues soar to north of £100m and they could probably sell the club for a valuation of 4x the consideration they paid. Perhaps way more if we established ourselves there.
For me they bought an asset for £40m and the absolute worst case was that they trade it for a few years, lose £20m, sell off a few of the players to offset some of that, and then ditch the club to a new owner at a similar valuation to what they paid. The upside is a promotion or 2 and see a nice profit on disposal. [Post edited 1 Nov 2023 12:45]
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:48 - Nov 1 with 2631 views | ArnieM |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |
This ^^^^^ 100%. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:50 - Nov 1 with 2602 views | Dubtractor |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by DanTheMan |
They wouldn't have invested in some of the less important things like Town TV if they weren't in it for the long haul. |
I don't think they will sell early, as per J2's post I think they'll want to see us established, but I'm sure that at some point they will look to sell.
I hope they don't as they are very good owners so far! | |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:52 - Nov 1 with 2590 views | BigCommon |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |
Agree, this isn't going to be "a flip", there's no point.... If the ownership get us to being a solid Prem side, and their dividend stream is more than acceptable. The decision to pull out will be ever more difficult, if we prove to be a solid egg in their basket full of investments..
We will have to accept, though, at some point, the profits going to the pension fund, will stifle progress, in terms of investing in big signings, should we reach a stable status in the Prem'.... As much as we hear that there is no ceiling to our potential, from the top brass. We will definitely have a ceiling. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:59 - Nov 1 with 2555 views | WalkyWonderland |
Ignoring SW for now as it's a basket case, lets say both ITFC and PAFC were available to buy at the same time Gamechanger were looking for a club. Which is the better investment? Perhaps Argyle might have been a slightly lower initial outlay to purchase. PAFC was already well run at that time and funded within it's means. Where does another owner add value there? The ceiling for PAFC is probably mid table championship with the off-chance of a Luton style run to the pay-offs one day. Geographically, it is also very difficult to attract players to Home Park. I know how far away it is from everything. I live here!
ITFC was a big club (historically) in League 1. Run down, not maximising income streams, not properly funded, without a clear strategy. The ceiling is far higher, it's close(ish) to London, the stadium is twice the size. Even if the owners were looking for a quick flip, it's easy to see how one could increase the value pretty quickly and make a decent return.
Ultimately, they will sell one day but I suspect we are quite some way off that. It will generate dividends for the pension fund with the kind of increased revenue they now generate along with TV money etc in the Championship and potentially hugely increased if we make it to the PL in the next 2-3 years. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:07 - Nov 1 with 2426 views | SmithersJones |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |
Pension funds buy and sell assets all the time. The question Gamechanger will ask will be “do we earn more by owning ITFC or by selling it?” Very few premier league clubs make money but they still get sold for big sums. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:17 - Nov 1 with 2363 views | homer_123 |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:59 - Nov 1 by WalkyWonderland |
Ignoring SW for now as it's a basket case, lets say both ITFC and PAFC were available to buy at the same time Gamechanger were looking for a club. Which is the better investment? Perhaps Argyle might have been a slightly lower initial outlay to purchase. PAFC was already well run at that time and funded within it's means. Where does another owner add value there? The ceiling for PAFC is probably mid table championship with the off-chance of a Luton style run to the pay-offs one day. Geographically, it is also very difficult to attract players to Home Park. I know how far away it is from everything. I live here!
ITFC was a big club (historically) in League 1. Run down, not maximising income streams, not properly funded, without a clear strategy. The ceiling is far higher, it's close(ish) to London, the stadium is twice the size. Even if the owners were looking for a quick flip, it's easy to see how one could increase the value pretty quickly and make a decent return.
Ultimately, they will sell one day but I suspect we are quite some way off that. It will generate dividends for the pension fund with the kind of increased revenue they now generate along with TV money etc in the Championship and potentially hugely increased if we make it to the PL in the next 2-3 years. |
Point of order. We have 'never' been a big Club, ever.
We have historically always punched well above our weight. | |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:52 - Nov 1 with 2173 views | NthQldITFC |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |
If that's viable, that's brilliant to hear.
A part of my (very financially unaware) mind was secretly starting to get a little worried that we'd go up and they'd look to sell us too quickly. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:00 - Nov 1 with 2112 views | WalkyWonderland |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:17 - Nov 1 by homer_123 |
Point of order. We have 'never' been a big Club, ever.
We have historically always punched well above our weight. |
We were a big club in League 1 is what I meant. Not in wider football terms necessarily | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:07 - Nov 1 with 2068 views | PhilTWTD |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:07 - Nov 1 by SmithersJones |
Pension funds buy and sell assets all the time. The question Gamechanger will ask will be “do we earn more by owning ITFC or by selling it?” Very few premier league clubs make money but they still get sold for big sums. |
Or selling stakes in it. I was told that that would be part of the thinking going forward. |  | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:10 - Nov 1 with 2032 views | Guthrum |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:07 - Nov 1 by SmithersJones |
Pension funds buy and sell assets all the time. The question Gamechanger will ask will be “do we earn more by owning ITFC or by selling it?” Very few premier league clubs make money but they still get sold for big sums. |
Thing is, Town are not directly owned by the pension fund, they are the largest shareholder in the vehicle which owns the club. ORG could sell some or all of its stake without GC20 leaving (so long as they can find alternative investment). So we don't necessarily lose the brains among the ownership if the biggest investor wants to cash out. |  |
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| Only point to buying stakes on 14:14 - Nov 1 with 2001 views | Dyland |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:07 - Nov 1 by PhilTWTD |
Or selling stakes in it. I was told that that would be part of the thinking going forward. |
Is if it’s going to be sold for silly money, so at the end of the day the object short mid or long term is to sell. And I’d hazard the plan for the pension fund is no more than mid term. I hich begs the most important question for us fans, which is who’s the buyer? A country or state of some description methinks… |  |
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| Theylysell to the highest bidder innit on 14:16 - Nov 1 with 1983 views | Dyland |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:21 - Nov 1 by J2BLUE |
It likely ends with a sale if we get to the Prem and get established. Just got to hope they will look to sell to someone decent and hopefully not to a government owned fund from Saudi Arabia/Qatar etc. |
I.e. the sort you fear, unfortunately | |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:16 - Nov 1 with 1969 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:07 - Nov 1 by PhilTWTD |
Or selling stakes in it. I was told that that would be part of the thinking going forward. |
Isn't that something Ashton spoke of when he was asked about M.E's share.. the more money you put in the bigger share you get or it will reduce if you don't invest.. Seems like a solid plan and one they'll run higher with if we go up. We'll have the same 'owners' but they'll be various different investors |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:30 - Nov 1 with 1918 views | Vegtablue |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 13:17 - Nov 1 by homer_123 |
Point of order. We have 'never' been a big Club, ever.
We have historically always punched well above our weight. |
We are a medium club though, alongside 20+ others, and we definitely stuck out in League One. Punched above our weight historically for sure, but also 24th in England for historic attendance and in the top 20 currently. | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:35 - Nov 1 with 1864 views | WestStanderLaLaLa |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 12:31 - Nov 1 by trncbluearmy |
ITFC are owned by a pension fund.
Pension funds require dividend income
Once in the Premier league and likely commercial property expansion of surrounding area by pension fund/Council part of the profit will be paid to the pension fund by way of annual dividends.
Don't buy the early sale at all, this is long term investment |
Agreed. Fella with the beard at the pension fund says he loves repeat income. A slice of TV income each year will do him nicely. |  |
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| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:36 - Nov 1 with 1862 views | SmithersJones |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:10 - Nov 1 by Guthrum |
Thing is, Town are not directly owned by the pension fund, they are the largest shareholder in the vehicle which owns the club. ORG could sell some or all of its stake without GC20 leaving (so long as they can find alternative investment). So we don't necessarily lose the brains among the ownership if the biggest investor wants to cash out. |
Exactly right. I was guilty of doing what I warned others against some months ago, namely thinking of Gamechanger as a homogeneous entity. Entirely possible the 3 lions stay put and the Ed Schwartz group sell their stake (or part of it). | | | |
| Take three clubs......(not a golf thread) on 14:37 - Nov 1 with 1855 views | ChampionsofInnsbruck |
See Leicester and Southampton, now back in the Championship but had sustained and successful periods in the top flight and made money while doing it, Brighton and Brentford two current examples, Fulham is close to turning a corner on that one too. West Ham had a yoyo period until their current owners got a grip of things and look at what they have done.
I don't expect they ill stay around forever, but once they make a healthy return on the investment they will hopefully sell responsibly when that day comes. Fan ownership is a great idea, however unless you have a lot of wealthy fans you don't typically get that far! |  | | |
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