| W: 11 D:3 L:2 23:13 - Feb 11 with 2264 views | SitfcB |
Going back to Joe’s thread…
17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 by itfcjoe 7 Feb 2023 10:03Will that be enough? Probably just about.
Will we do it? Looks unlikely at moment.
How do we get there
13 wins+
12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats
11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats
10 wins, 7 draws, 0 defeats
You look at the remaining fixtures and 11-12 wins looks more than doable:
9 home games - will need 6-7 wins as a minimum
8 away games - will need 4-5 wins
That will get us to 10-12 wins, if it is at the upper end of that we'll be fine, if it is at the lower end we won't be.
Got to win the next 5 for sure, very doable.
Like Mick Mills said on the radio after the game, with the next five and it becomes
W: 6
D: 3
L: 2
For the last 11 games…
Looks alright doesn’t it!
COYFB
Is it time to start posting Lenny Kravitz for you lot yet?? |  |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 23:15 - Feb 11 with 2194 views | TalkingBlues |
30 Games into the season, stat review by TalkingBlues 11 Feb 2023 23:01https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/547529/20-games-into-the-season-stat-review/#1
1 - 10 -------- 10 games = 6Wins 3Draws 1Loss - Goals For 19 Goals against 8 = Pts 21
11 - 20--------10 games = 6Wins 3Draws 1Loss - Goals for 20 Goals against 12 = Pts 21
21 - 30--------10 games = 3 Wins 5 Draws 2 losses - Goals for 17 Goals against 11 = Pts 14
As per review at 20 games, it appeared that it was getting harder for us to maintain consistent form and indeed that manifested into a considerably poorer run and return of points in our next set of 10 games (overall, form has been inconsistent for the last 14/15 games, 4 wins from last 14 matches).
**LEAGUE GAMES ONLY**
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 23:48 - Feb 11 with 2076 views | Chrisd |
I love threads like this especially when it gives little consideration to Wednesday’s and Plymouth’s form. We might win those games, but can you see either of those sides slipping up? Sadly, I can’t. Both those teams have been consistently better than us and deserve to be top 2. We just aren’t as consistent as either of them and don’t win enough games. It’s without doubt Play Offs for us and that’s about right. |  |
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| Should still get 6th.... on 23:53 - Feb 11 with 2036 views | Bloots |
...but we'll need to pick up our form a bit. |  |
| Enduringly lovable, intelligent and thunderingly exquisite. |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:02 - Feb 12 with 1998 views | SitfcB |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 23:48 - Feb 11 by Chrisd |
I love threads like this especially when it gives little consideration to Wednesday’s and Plymouth’s form. We might win those games, but can you see either of those sides slipping up? Sadly, I can’t. Both those teams have been consistently better than us and deserve to be top 2. We just aren’t as consistent as either of them and don’t win enough games. It’s without doubt Play Offs for us and that’s about right. |
“That is the target we have to set ourselves, you know 92, these two at the top might in the end beat the 92 we can set ourselves, ya know, but if we do that [win the next five] then we might put pressure on one of them because neither of them have yet hit the spluttering period that we’ve put ourselves in you know hopefully we’re over it now, the fixtures have come a little bit kinder now.”
Mick Mills
Always talks a lot of sense post match. | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:12 - Feb 12 with 1976 views | Vegtablue |
Sorry mate I do like the positivity but, and this isn't really a minor but, we haven't recorded back-to-back wins in our last 20 matches! Snapping into five wins on the spin from the platform we've created for ourselves would be the stuff of miracles, even taking into account the humble names that stand in our way. | | | |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:14 - Feb 12 with 1955 views | TalkingBlues |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 23:48 - Feb 11 by Chrisd |
I love threads like this especially when it gives little consideration to Wednesday’s and Plymouth’s form. We might win those games, but can you see either of those sides slipping up? Sadly, I can’t. Both those teams have been consistently better than us and deserve to be top 2. We just aren’t as consistent as either of them and don’t win enough games. It’s without doubt Play Offs for us and that’s about right. |
Forget other teams form, our own form suggests we don’t stand a chance in hell of hitting those numbers, the truth of the matter is that for the first 15 games of the season we did well, but for the last 15 we’ve been performing well below the required standard for play off positions.
This isn’t a “blip” the statistics show that this has been a sustained decline in form over the last 15 games, plenty have been in denial, some of us just used stats and our eyes to see that all was lot well, strangely there are still plenty of emus on here. | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:36 - Feb 12 with 1888 views | NthQldITFC |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:02 - Feb 12 by SitfcB |
“That is the target we have to set ourselves, you know 92, these two at the top might in the end beat the 92 we can set ourselves, ya know, but if we do that [win the next five] then we might put pressure on one of them because neither of them have yet hit the spluttering period that we’ve put ourselves in you know hopefully we’re over it now, the fixtures have come a little bit kinder now.”
Mick Mills
Always talks a lot of sense post match. |
I know. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:52 - Feb 12 with 1861 views | NthQldITFC |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:12 - Feb 12 by Vegtablue |
Sorry mate I do like the positivity but, and this isn't really a minor but, we haven't recorded back-to-back wins in our last 20 matches! Snapping into five wins on the spin from the platform we've created for ourselves would be the stuff of miracles, even taking into account the humble names that stand in our way. |
That's crap though. A football team is not like a Formula One car that operates at a certain level and will continue to more or less do so. You can suddenly hit a run of form, which is obvious because, well, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have done it recently.
Virtually every game we play we dominate. We did today for at least two thirds of the game.
If, and it's obviously a reasonable sized if, we can put two wins together against Bristol and FG (which of course WE CAN), then if we win against MK, which again of course WE CAN - we're plenty good enough to batter all of those sides - ffs of course we are just look at some of the stuff we play.... (breathes)... then same again Burton and Accrington - wow we're at five wins.
Just like Derby have done. Just like Wednesday have done.
FFS we've dominated pretty much every team in this division. We just need to get in the habit of making that domination count at both ends of the field.
To go back to the F1 comparison, it would be like saying we add a little bit of aerodynamics to the car and we suddenly knock 3 seconds off a lap - well that doesn't happen in F1, but it does in football because it's about confidence and momentum, so long as you're in a good enough car to start with, and we're potentially in a Ferrari (or whatever is good in F1 these days).
That's not saying it's going to happen, but to call it the 'stuff of miracles' is really poor, defeatist rubbish - especially when you take into consideration things like our xG stats, which are only pointers of course but do have some merit.
Sorry to rant, but I'm sick of the negative crap on here at the moment - your post is far, far from the worst and I apologise for picking on you, but I had to let it flow. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 02:38 - Feb 12 with 1758 views | J2BLUE |
Don’t think 92 will be enough.
Just got to relentlessly win now. We’ve been saying that for ages though. Not giving up but we need some luck very quickly. |  |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 04:16 - Feb 12 with 1710 views | ibbleobble |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:52 - Feb 12 by NthQldITFC |
That's crap though. A football team is not like a Formula One car that operates at a certain level and will continue to more or less do so. You can suddenly hit a run of form, which is obvious because, well, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have done it recently.
Virtually every game we play we dominate. We did today for at least two thirds of the game.
If, and it's obviously a reasonable sized if, we can put two wins together against Bristol and FG (which of course WE CAN), then if we win against MK, which again of course WE CAN - we're plenty good enough to batter all of those sides - ffs of course we are just look at some of the stuff we play.... (breathes)... then same again Burton and Accrington - wow we're at five wins.
Just like Derby have done. Just like Wednesday have done.
FFS we've dominated pretty much every team in this division. We just need to get in the habit of making that domination count at both ends of the field.
To go back to the F1 comparison, it would be like saying we add a little bit of aerodynamics to the car and we suddenly knock 3 seconds off a lap - well that doesn't happen in F1, but it does in football because it's about confidence and momentum, so long as you're in a good enough car to start with, and we're potentially in a Ferrari (or whatever is good in F1 these days).
That's not saying it's going to happen, but to call it the 'stuff of miracles' is really poor, defeatist rubbish - especially when you take into consideration things like our xG stats, which are only pointers of course but do have some merit.
Sorry to rant, but I'm sick of the negative crap on here at the moment - your post is far, far from the worst and I apologise for picking on you, but I had to let it flow. |
This is all just hot air ifs and buts though. The same hot air of ifs and buts that were being spouted in December and then in January and then at the start of February. The bottom line is we’re not winning enough football matches no matter how much positive spin you want to throw at it.
We’ve got a soft touch underbelly which hasn’t been addressed all season. It’s been evident since August yet we’re still gifting goals and points away as we come to the sharp end of the campaign. We have a bloated squad with too much rotation filled with cameo roles. I’m not sure why McKenna keeps getting a free pass as an “inexperienced manager”, it’s nonsense; he’s here to take us up. That team weren’t prepared in that first half and they were equally poor in the first half against Cambridge. Turning up for a half of football won’t get us promoted. You can call it negative. I’d argue it’s just common sense. | | | |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 04:37 - Feb 12 with 1688 views | textbackup |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:52 - Feb 12 by NthQldITFC |
That's crap though. A football team is not like a Formula One car that operates at a certain level and will continue to more or less do so. You can suddenly hit a run of form, which is obvious because, well, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have done it recently.
Virtually every game we play we dominate. We did today for at least two thirds of the game.
If, and it's obviously a reasonable sized if, we can put two wins together against Bristol and FG (which of course WE CAN), then if we win against MK, which again of course WE CAN - we're plenty good enough to batter all of those sides - ffs of course we are just look at some of the stuff we play.... (breathes)... then same again Burton and Accrington - wow we're at five wins.
Just like Derby have done. Just like Wednesday have done.
FFS we've dominated pretty much every team in this division. We just need to get in the habit of making that domination count at both ends of the field.
To go back to the F1 comparison, it would be like saying we add a little bit of aerodynamics to the car and we suddenly knock 3 seconds off a lap - well that doesn't happen in F1, but it does in football because it's about confidence and momentum, so long as you're in a good enough car to start with, and we're potentially in a Ferrari (or whatever is good in F1 these days).
That's not saying it's going to happen, but to call it the 'stuff of miracles' is really poor, defeatist rubbish - especially when you take into consideration things like our xG stats, which are only pointers of course but do have some merit.
Sorry to rant, but I'm sick of the negative crap on here at the moment - your post is far, far from the worst and I apologise for picking on you, but I had to let it flow. |
4 wins in 13 really does put this post to bed.
XG - so what? When will people realise this isn’t the stat that matters in terms of points on the board, I’m sure it’s nice to look at if that sort of thing excites you, but it means nothing when the ball isn’t put in the net, and we let too many in. |  |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 06:16 - Feb 12 with 1627 views | pennblue |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:12 - Feb 12 by Vegtablue |
Sorry mate I do like the positivity but, and this isn't really a minor but, we haven't recorded back-to-back wins in our last 20 matches! Snapping into five wins on the spin from the platform we've created for ourselves would be the stuff of miracles, even taking into account the humble names that stand in our way. |
We have to be positive and optimistic and just get behind the team, anything else is counter productive.
There is no point at this stage in the season having a post mortem, that can be done in the summer
No one is delusional | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 06:56 - Feb 12 with 1557 views | BarcaBlue |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:14 - Feb 12 by TalkingBlues |
Forget other teams form, our own form suggests we don’t stand a chance in hell of hitting those numbers, the truth of the matter is that for the first 15 games of the season we did well, but for the last 15 we’ve been performing well below the required standard for play off positions.
This isn’t a “blip” the statistics show that this has been a sustained decline in form over the last 15 games, plenty have been in denial, some of us just used stats and our eyes to see that all was lot well, strangely there are still plenty of emus on here. |
What have emus got to do with our fanbase? |  | | |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 09:40 - Feb 12 with 1340 views | TalkingBlues |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 06:56 - Feb 12 by BarcaBlue |
What have emus got to do with our fanbase? |
Emu's can't move backwards and eat other animals sh1t, so they've a lot in common with some posters here. | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 09:44 - Feb 12 with 1322 views | NthQldITFC |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 04:37 - Feb 12 by textbackup |
4 wins in 13 really does put this post to bed.
XG - so what? When will people realise this isn’t the stat that matters in terms of points on the board, I’m sure it’s nice to look at if that sort of thing excites you, but it means nothing when the ball isn’t put in the net, and we let too many in. |
Do you not agree with the point I was making (quite ramblingly  in that post, I know), that football and a team's performances and results are HIGHLY dependent upon confidence and momentum?
We are demonstrably a very capable and skilful team (see stats and other managers' comments and evidence of your own eyes in the second half just yesterday) which is having a serious wobble.
Nevertheless if those intangible and dimensionless things which give rise to confidence and momentum can spring into place for us, we are clearly capable of going on a serious run and getting right back into contention.
Most people will have had a time in life where things have been going not great, but then something has clicked for you, and you've started motoring ahead again? But if you decide you're no good, then.... you're no good. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 09:44 - Feb 12 with 1317 views | TalkingBlues |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 04:37 - Feb 12 by textbackup |
4 wins in 13 really does put this post to bed.
XG - so what? When will people realise this isn’t the stat that matters in terms of points on the board, I’m sure it’s nice to look at if that sort of thing excites you, but it means nothing when the ball isn’t put in the net, and we let too many in. |
4 in 14 | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 09:51 - Feb 12 with 1288 views | FrimleyBlue |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:52 - Feb 12 by NthQldITFC |
That's crap though. A football team is not like a Formula One car that operates at a certain level and will continue to more or less do so. You can suddenly hit a run of form, which is obvious because, well, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have done it recently.
Virtually every game we play we dominate. We did today for at least two thirds of the game.
If, and it's obviously a reasonable sized if, we can put two wins together against Bristol and FG (which of course WE CAN), then if we win against MK, which again of course WE CAN - we're plenty good enough to batter all of those sides - ffs of course we are just look at some of the stuff we play.... (breathes)... then same again Burton and Accrington - wow we're at five wins.
Just like Derby have done. Just like Wednesday have done.
FFS we've dominated pretty much every team in this division. We just need to get in the habit of making that domination count at both ends of the field.
To go back to the F1 comparison, it would be like saying we add a little bit of aerodynamics to the car and we suddenly knock 3 seconds off a lap - well that doesn't happen in F1, but it does in football because it's about confidence and momentum, so long as you're in a good enough car to start with, and we're potentially in a Ferrari (or whatever is good in F1 these days).
That's not saying it's going to happen, but to call it the 'stuff of miracles' is really poor, defeatist rubbish - especially when you take into consideration things like our xG stats, which are only pointers of course but do have some merit.
Sorry to rant, but I'm sick of the negative crap on here at the moment - your post is far, far from the worst and I apologise for picking on you, but I had to let it flow. |
Without knowing it you've actually been quite spot on with using Ferrari with Ipswich, but not in the way you mean to.
Ferrari went into testing with more Air Tunnel time than their nearest competitor, they had a car going into the season which had more BHP than any of their competitors, and started the season off at the top of the championship table, unfortunately, despite the money spent, something was amiss and they started to fall down the table, they were there or there abouts, but kept messing it up themselves with some tactical mistakes and driver errors losing pole positions or race winning positions, to end up out of the top 2 places. Ferrari fans had hope however as they stayed with the front runners all season, but the engine wasn't reliable and could only offer 70% of it's full ability on each race, despite all the money spent on it, sooner or later the fans had to accept that the Ferrari and it's team principal and it's strategy team, wasn't as good as they first thought as they got chased down by a mercedes ( Derby ) who had a terrible summer of staff turnover, which took it's time to get going, but gradually caught up.
The interesting thing about this was, the Owners weren't happy with the team principal, and sacked him, not the driver for not being able to win the championsip, but the team principal who's job is it to ensure the driver has what he needs to win it. |  |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 10:01 - Feb 12 with 1266 views | TalkingBlues |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 09:51 - Feb 12 by FrimleyBlue |
Without knowing it you've actually been quite spot on with using Ferrari with Ipswich, but not in the way you mean to.
Ferrari went into testing with more Air Tunnel time than their nearest competitor, they had a car going into the season which had more BHP than any of their competitors, and started the season off at the top of the championship table, unfortunately, despite the money spent, something was amiss and they started to fall down the table, they were there or there abouts, but kept messing it up themselves with some tactical mistakes and driver errors losing pole positions or race winning positions, to end up out of the top 2 places. Ferrari fans had hope however as they stayed with the front runners all season, but the engine wasn't reliable and could only offer 70% of it's full ability on each race, despite all the money spent on it, sooner or later the fans had to accept that the Ferrari and it's team principal and it's strategy team, wasn't as good as they first thought as they got chased down by a mercedes ( Derby ) who had a terrible summer of staff turnover, which took it's time to get going, but gradually caught up.
The interesting thing about this was, the Owners weren't happy with the team principal, and sacked him, not the driver for not being able to win the championsip, but the team principal who's job is it to ensure the driver has what he needs to win it. |
Expertly handled | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 10:55 - Feb 12 with 1180 views | DJR |
To get to 93 points, Plymouth need W: 9 D: 2 L: 5, and Wednesday need W: 10 D: 1 L: 6.
We also have the possibility of 3 teams on the same number of points as us, if Derby and Barnsley win their games in hand, and each of those teams has much better current form than use.
So all in all, automatic promotion is a tall order but if we can win the next few games maybe things will look more promising. |  | | |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 18:02 - Feb 12 with 972 views | Vegtablue |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 00:52 - Feb 12 by NthQldITFC |
That's crap though. A football team is not like a Formula One car that operates at a certain level and will continue to more or less do so. You can suddenly hit a run of form, which is obvious because, well, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby have done it recently.
Virtually every game we play we dominate. We did today for at least two thirds of the game.
If, and it's obviously a reasonable sized if, we can put two wins together against Bristol and FG (which of course WE CAN), then if we win against MK, which again of course WE CAN - we're plenty good enough to batter all of those sides - ffs of course we are just look at some of the stuff we play.... (breathes)... then same again Burton and Accrington - wow we're at five wins.
Just like Derby have done. Just like Wednesday have done.
FFS we've dominated pretty much every team in this division. We just need to get in the habit of making that domination count at both ends of the field.
To go back to the F1 comparison, it would be like saying we add a little bit of aerodynamics to the car and we suddenly knock 3 seconds off a lap - well that doesn't happen in F1, but it does in football because it's about confidence and momentum, so long as you're in a good enough car to start with, and we're potentially in a Ferrari (or whatever is good in F1 these days).
That's not saying it's going to happen, but to call it the 'stuff of miracles' is really poor, defeatist rubbish - especially when you take into consideration things like our xG stats, which are only pointers of course but do have some merit.
Sorry to rant, but I'm sick of the negative crap on here at the moment - your post is far, far from the worst and I apologise for picking on you, but I had to let it flow. |
I have very thick skin so don't you worry! Half my post was tempting the gods to prove the foolishness of my words, but "plenty good enough to batter all those sides" has probably now left them in a quandary.
Cambridge and Wednesday were very similar - awkward to awful for much of the first half, then excellent for a third of the game, then settling into the tempo of the draw really. Our XG is indicative of a team whose system currently outperforms the players implementing it, not of one that has suffered a curse. Brighton's XG was significantly ahead of their table position for a number of seasons, due to great overall play but healthy doses of carnage in both final fifths. Let's prove the doubters wrong! | | | |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 18:21 - Feb 12 with 941 views | Superblue95 |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 10:55 - Feb 12 by DJR |
To get to 93 points, Plymouth need W: 9 D: 2 L: 5, and Wednesday need W: 10 D: 1 L: 6.
We also have the possibility of 3 teams on the same number of points as us, if Derby and Barnsley win their games in hand, and each of those teams has much better current form than use.
So all in all, automatic promotion is a tall order but if we can win the next few games maybe things will look more promising. |
Your first paragraph is so disheartening. The idea that automatic promotion is still on the cards is utterly delusional when you put it like that.
We really need to pull it together in the play offs but it’s hard to see that happening at the moment. |  |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 07:03 - Feb 13 with 735 views | PioneerBlue |
For all the words written and negative commentary about what has been unfolding this will be played out on the pitch. As it stands, we don’t have the form to achieve anything like what is required for automatic promotion, that’s not to say the tide isn’t about to turn. It is unlikely based on what we have been watching,
Play Offs is where we are at right now. We’d better work very hard to solidify that position because our form indicates a further slip is possible and that is going to be hard to watch.
Fans need to support and help get the players back on track. All the negative chat about KMcK or the players not being good enough is not even correct and certainly will not help us achieve promotion via the playoffs. | |
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| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 08:18 - Feb 13 with 641 views | ibbleobble |
| W: 11 D:3 L:2 on 07:03 - Feb 13 by PioneerBlue |
For all the words written and negative commentary about what has been unfolding this will be played out on the pitch. As it stands, we don’t have the form to achieve anything like what is required for automatic promotion, that’s not to say the tide isn’t about to turn. It is unlikely based on what we have been watching,
Play Offs is where we are at right now. We’d better work very hard to solidify that position because our form indicates a further slip is possible and that is going to be hard to watch.
Fans need to support and help get the players back on track. All the negative chat about KMcK or the players not being good enough is not even correct and certainly will not help us achieve promotion via the playoffs. |
Completely agree. On average McKenna picks up 9 pts every 5 games which is a decent return and will get us to the play-offs. Probability wise, that’s about 28 points. As we’re 8 pts adrift, we’ll need Plymouth to only pick up another 20 pts from their next 48.
Naturally this is doesn’t take into account the ebbs and flows of football but as a baseline, that’s where we’re at heading to The Memorial ground.
Several weeks back there was a thread on here suggesting we needed 13 wins from our last 19 games. We’ve achieved 1 in that time so now need 12 from 16. It’s play-offs so I hope McKenna finds his best settled side in between now and then because I’m not sure he knows exactly what it is right now. | | | |
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