| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion 00:02 - Mar 9 with 2214 views | unstableblue |
… it’s often fine margins and a wee bit of luck that make the different
A double deflection against Fleetwood, a massive deflection against a promotion rival
A terrible refereeing decision:
But you also make your own luck: not turning up against Wycombe and Oxford away? Not grinding out results week in week out despite playing poorly.
But injuries play a part… and I think the Ball, Evans and Camara injuries have ultimately cost us our automatic place…. Can the arrival of Luongo bridge the gap in time? Can we go on a true run?
Two key things:
- Bolton away is going to be a proper test, Burton was not easy, but FGR and Accrington were pony
- This is a project, the team rebuild still takes time, Harness was the right type of player but was inconsistent, Evans was OK but Luongo has raised the bar… we need to be patient… but only for one more season playing at this level… but play-offs should still secure a route… only Barnsley to truly fear |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 08:47 - Mar 9 with 1936 views | Rozz |
We've had a few stinkers. Offside Wednesday equaliser, Harness "offside" winner, Johnson's phantom elbow, a couple of horrible looping deflections, and probably half a dozen penalty shouts across the season. But with the standard of officiating in the league I guarantee every team at the top end of the table will have similar.
Agree that injuries have hampered us enormously in that spell between December - Feb, but we've dropped too may points in that period and that's ultimately left us a mountain to climb.
The other two teams have always found a way to win. We'll have to do the same from now until the end of the season if we're to capitalise on the small chance we have. |  | | |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:11 - Mar 9 with 1871 views | ArnieM |
Fine margins indeed, and completely s h I t refs . Criminal decisions by them have actually cost us 12 points at PR this season , so hardly surprising we are in the chasing pack instead of clear at the top. |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:23 - Mar 9 with 1826 views | usm |
We are the 'best' footballing team in team division - I think the stats prove that - but we are not the most effective - again the stats prove that.
Weve had bad luck and poor refereeing decisions, but so have the others. We have simply not been clinical enough, so far.
Whether we can make that up over the next couple of months I am not sure. Probably not because we are relying too much on others falling away, but this season will hold us in very good stead for next season - and you never know we may even win the play off lottery. |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:30 - Mar 9 with 1803 views | itfcjoe |
I think your level of ability and play gives you a points range of where you are going to finish in the league, and ours is in that 90-100 range - but without the rub of the green it's going to be at the very bottom end of that - Plymouth are probably 84-94 but are going to get towards the top of that and probably finish ahead of us.
If the season was 1000 games long it would regress to the mean and we'd win the league easily - but it's not, it's 46 - runs of outperforming your metrics is going to skew things and the league table does lie.
But Plymouth can point to bad injury luck, Copper being out, Azaz earlier in the season.
It's not a bias against us or anyone, but we've been on the wrong side of the margins too often and Plymouth have gotten themselves on the right side of the margins more - the deflected goal v us, the foul not being given against Chaplin at their place, Walton's header hitting the underside of bar and staying out.....these little margins will define the season.
Whoever gets over the line will have won their promotion fair and square and fully deserve to do so - I hope it will be us but it's a big ask
I don't think Plymouth have cheated or anything like that, they've just got on right side of margins |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:36 - Mar 9 with 1766 views | iamipswich |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:30 - Mar 9 by itfcjoe |
I think your level of ability and play gives you a points range of where you are going to finish in the league, and ours is in that 90-100 range - but without the rub of the green it's going to be at the very bottom end of that - Plymouth are probably 84-94 but are going to get towards the top of that and probably finish ahead of us.
If the season was 1000 games long it would regress to the mean and we'd win the league easily - but it's not, it's 46 - runs of outperforming your metrics is going to skew things and the league table does lie.
But Plymouth can point to bad injury luck, Copper being out, Azaz earlier in the season.
It's not a bias against us or anyone, but we've been on the wrong side of the margins too often and Plymouth have gotten themselves on the right side of the margins more - the deflected goal v us, the foul not being given against Chaplin at their place, Walton's header hitting the underside of bar and staying out.....these little margins will define the season.
Whoever gets over the line will have won their promotion fair and square and fully deserve to do so - I hope it will be us but it's a big ask
I don't think Plymouth have cheated or anything like that, they've just got on right side of margins |
Have to say while I agree with what you say, it is hard to look beyond Sheff Wed as the out and out best team in the league whether it's over 46 games or 1000 games. But we would be well above the rest I agree.
Wasn't a foul on Chaplin at Home Park but I suppose that's your point, it's marginal and we could have done with that falling our way.
Also Plymouth have had bad luck with injuries as you say, as well as losing their talisman being recalled, they've had to recruit again.
Don't think we can feel too woe is me as we have left so many points out there through our own shortcomings too. |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:51 - Mar 9 with 1721 views | patrickswell |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:36 - Mar 9 by iamipswich |
Have to say while I agree with what you say, it is hard to look beyond Sheff Wed as the out and out best team in the league whether it's over 46 games or 1000 games. But we would be well above the rest I agree.
Wasn't a foul on Chaplin at Home Park but I suppose that's your point, it's marginal and we could have done with that falling our way.
Also Plymouth have had bad luck with injuries as you say, as well as losing their talisman being recalled, they've had to recruit again.
Don't think we can feel too woe is me as we have left so many points out there through our own shortcomings too. |
Your last sentence is key. Neither Wednesday or Plymouth have (yet) blown a 2 goal lead in stoppage time. Argyle’s penalty on Tuesday may have been controversial but they scored it. We got one against Wednesday thanks to a linesman having the courage to bring it to the referee’s attention and missed it.
9 draws in 15 games between October 29 and February 14 is what has stymied us. We need Argyle and/or Wednesday to go through something similar in a shorter space of time. But we know that when we have to rely on snookers, it never works out for us. |  | | |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:57 - Mar 9 with 1701 views | unstableblue |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:30 - Mar 9 by itfcjoe |
I think your level of ability and play gives you a points range of where you are going to finish in the league, and ours is in that 90-100 range - but without the rub of the green it's going to be at the very bottom end of that - Plymouth are probably 84-94 but are going to get towards the top of that and probably finish ahead of us.
If the season was 1000 games long it would regress to the mean and we'd win the league easily - but it's not, it's 46 - runs of outperforming your metrics is going to skew things and the league table does lie.
But Plymouth can point to bad injury luck, Copper being out, Azaz earlier in the season.
It's not a bias against us or anyone, but we've been on the wrong side of the margins too often and Plymouth have gotten themselves on the right side of the margins more - the deflected goal v us, the foul not being given against Chaplin at their place, Walton's header hitting the underside of bar and staying out.....these little margins will define the season.
Whoever gets over the line will have won their promotion fair and square and fully deserve to do so - I hope it will be us but it's a big ask
I don't think Plymouth have cheated or anything like that, they've just got on right side of margins |
Yeah, couldn’t agree more.
I think their fans would point to some moments going against them, but overall they’ve had just a little more rub of the green. I think their injuries and loss of players was less impactful as they had good cover and did well in January - love Humphreys but he was well out of his depth at Wycombe. And whilst Lunongo was purring he came in unfit and impact was delayed.
Their home form is also massive, it’s a long way to go, but really their fans are the 12th man. Genuinely think that atmosphere uptick rattled Town and we lost. Do think our fans are jaded, and who can blame them. Charlton away, last minute Plymouth equaliser.
Thought the mutterings when we were passing round the back Tuesday were negative, it led to a superb goal, and it got round their press really well at times.
Think we’ll know a lot more about where McKennas team is come 5pm Saturday, the result at Oakwell will also be telling! | |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:59 - Mar 9 with 1682 views | GavTWTD |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:30 - Mar 9 by itfcjoe |
I think your level of ability and play gives you a points range of where you are going to finish in the league, and ours is in that 90-100 range - but without the rub of the green it's going to be at the very bottom end of that - Plymouth are probably 84-94 but are going to get towards the top of that and probably finish ahead of us.
If the season was 1000 games long it would regress to the mean and we'd win the league easily - but it's not, it's 46 - runs of outperforming your metrics is going to skew things and the league table does lie.
But Plymouth can point to bad injury luck, Copper being out, Azaz earlier in the season.
It's not a bias against us or anyone, but we've been on the wrong side of the margins too often and Plymouth have gotten themselves on the right side of the margins more - the deflected goal v us, the foul not being given against Chaplin at their place, Walton's header hitting the underside of bar and staying out.....these little margins will define the season.
Whoever gets over the line will have won their promotion fair and square and fully deserve to do so - I hope it will be us but it's a big ask
I don't think Plymouth have cheated or anything like that, they've just got on right side of margins |
Interesting idea of a points range. I like that.
If we maintain our form going into the last matches, we may just be short at the end of the season but we'll absolutely have nothing to fear in the playoffs. I wouldn't want disappointment on the last day, that would be cruel, but momentum going into the playoffs would be a big boost if those below us aren't in the same form.
I'm still trying to be optimistic but I think I'm resigned to us being 3rd. Oh to have had those January signings in last August. We're a different team now with more goals in it. |  |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 12:23 - Mar 9 with 1418 views | Churchman |
We’ve played 35 games. If there is any such thing as luck, it evens itself out, as does rubbish Ref decisions. We have a bigger squad and more resources than most so forget injuries. We deserve to be where we are and if we finish 3rd or 4th which is likely, we will deserve that. No more, no less.
Our own failings are our undoing. Nothing else. Should we finish outside the auto promotion slots will we have under achieved? Yes. I genuinely thought in the autumn we’d get stronger, not weaker. Credit to Sheffield W and Plymouth. They’ve been outstanding. Credit to our opponents for taking advantage of our weaknesses too, but really it’s down to us that we let teams back in games that should have been beyond them or in some instances didn’t turn up.
If we fail to get out of this garbage league this season, the body of the team stays together and the owners continue to support us, I believe we will take the lessons learned and smash it next season. But I hope it doesn’t come to that. Either way, keep the faith. Good things are happening with our club. [Post edited 9 Mar 2023 12:24]
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 12:30 - Mar 9 with 1360 views | EatonBlue |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:59 - Mar 9 by GavTWTD |
Interesting idea of a points range. I like that.
If we maintain our form going into the last matches, we may just be short at the end of the season but we'll absolutely have nothing to fear in the playoffs. I wouldn't want disappointment on the last day, that would be cruel, but momentum going into the playoffs would be a big boost if those below us aren't in the same form.
I'm still trying to be optimistic but I think I'm resigned to us being 3rd. Oh to have had those January signings in last August. We're a different team now with more goals in it. |
Removed [Post edited 9 Mar 2023 20:57]
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 13:15 - Mar 9 with 1240 views | Rozz |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 12:23 - Mar 9 by Churchman |
We’ve played 35 games. If there is any such thing as luck, it evens itself out, as does rubbish Ref decisions. We have a bigger squad and more resources than most so forget injuries. We deserve to be where we are and if we finish 3rd or 4th which is likely, we will deserve that. No more, no less.
Our own failings are our undoing. Nothing else. Should we finish outside the auto promotion slots will we have under achieved? Yes. I genuinely thought in the autumn we’d get stronger, not weaker. Credit to Sheffield W and Plymouth. They’ve been outstanding. Credit to our opponents for taking advantage of our weaknesses too, but really it’s down to us that we let teams back in games that should have been beyond them or in some instances didn’t turn up.
If we fail to get out of this garbage league this season, the body of the team stays together and the owners continue to support us, I believe we will take the lessons learned and smash it next season. But I hope it doesn’t come to that. Either way, keep the faith. Good things are happening with our club. [Post edited 9 Mar 2023 12:24]
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Last paragraph is where I'm at. I think McKenna has learned an awful lot over the last 6 months also, that we can't simply rely on a single gameplan and having more quality than other teams.
If we keep everyone together I'd fancy us to do a Sheffield Wednesday next season (assuming we don't quite make it this time around). [Post edited 9 Mar 2023 13:17]
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 18:02 - Mar 9 with 1004 views | ArnieM |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 09:36 - Mar 9 by iamipswich |
Have to say while I agree with what you say, it is hard to look beyond Sheff Wed as the out and out best team in the league whether it's over 46 games or 1000 games. But we would be well above the rest I agree.
Wasn't a foul on Chaplin at Home Park but I suppose that's your point, it's marginal and we could have done with that falling our way.
Also Plymouth have had bad luck with injuries as you say, as well as losing their talisman being recalled, they've had to recruit again.
Don't think we can feel too woe is me as we have left so many points out there through our own shortcomings too. |
Plymouth have had injuries that’s true. But bloody hell, so have we, haven’t we! Virtually the whole of our midfield for something like a 1/4 of the season with long term injuries. Some still not back even yet. Which is probably why Humphries got a good run in the side ( which will have done his development a lot of good) ,. But Town we’re down to the bare bones for quite a few weeks I think. | |
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| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 18:19 - Mar 9 with 977 views | Herbivore |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 12:23 - Mar 9 by Churchman |
We’ve played 35 games. If there is any such thing as luck, it evens itself out, as does rubbish Ref decisions. We have a bigger squad and more resources than most so forget injuries. We deserve to be where we are and if we finish 3rd or 4th which is likely, we will deserve that. No more, no less.
Our own failings are our undoing. Nothing else. Should we finish outside the auto promotion slots will we have under achieved? Yes. I genuinely thought in the autumn we’d get stronger, not weaker. Credit to Sheffield W and Plymouth. They’ve been outstanding. Credit to our opponents for taking advantage of our weaknesses too, but really it’s down to us that we let teams back in games that should have been beyond them or in some instances didn’t turn up.
If we fail to get out of this garbage league this season, the body of the team stays together and the owners continue to support us, I believe we will take the lessons learned and smash it next season. But I hope it doesn’t come to that. Either way, keep the faith. Good things are happening with our club. [Post edited 9 Mar 2023 12:24]
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Do rubbish ref decisions even themselves out though? There's no reason why they would or should. If they did then Sheffield Wednesday would have had a perfectly good goal chalked off against us when they were 2-1 up, we'd have scored a clearly offside equaliser at Wycombe and had it given. That's before getting into the numerous stonewall penalty shouts we've had turned down whilst having a ridiculously soft one given against us at Lincoln. I'm not sure the decisions have evened themselves out to be honest. That said, despite being on the wrong end of some shocking decisions we've not done ourselves any favours with profligate finishing and some shoddy defending in tight games. Too many draws in games we should have put to bed. |  |
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| (No subject) (n/t) on 19:09 - Mar 9 with 885 views | GreenArmy75 |
| When you have three very good squads, three very good teams vying for promotion on 18:19 - Mar 9 by Herbivore |
Do rubbish ref decisions even themselves out though? There's no reason why they would or should. If they did then Sheffield Wednesday would have had a perfectly good goal chalked off against us when they were 2-1 up, we'd have scored a clearly offside equaliser at Wycombe and had it given. That's before getting into the numerous stonewall penalty shouts we've had turned down whilst having a ridiculously soft one given against us at Lincoln. I'm not sure the decisions have evened themselves out to be honest. That said, despite being on the wrong end of some shocking decisions we've not done ourselves any favours with profligate finishing and some shoddy defending in tight games. Too many draws in games we should have put to bed. |
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