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Reply | Will we get more points than Liverpool?
at 22:40 10 Nov 2019
Terrible bet I'm afraid mate. The long term models from us bookies put Liverpool expectancy at 93pts, and Ipswich at 83pts.
He's got a 10 point start on you based on that - Liverpool go off average as 1/5 favourites in most their home games against bottom 14 sides. Ipswich will rarely be shorter than 8/11 to win any home match for example. |
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Reply | So according to the BBC sport website reports and stats
at 10:00 16 Aug 2017
This is a terrible statement Herbivore. As a professional gambler who uses shot data as the primary means of analysis I can assure you this is NOT meaningless.
Last season for example the average shots on target to produce one goal was 3.25. After 46 games, no side deviated from that 3.25 by more than 0.9 SOT per goal - I.e the range was 2.6 to 4.1, with 18 of the 24 sides wihin the 2.65-3.65 range.
Statisitcally speaking, Shots and Shots on Goal are the BEST indicator of future success, which has me worried for the season. Ipswich's Shots data would imply that a "fair" result over the three games would have seen them score 3 and conceed 6, while the SOT stats would suggest they should have scored 2.6 goals and conceeded 6. The samples are small, but to have won all three matches has almost certainly been due to a large slice of luck.
No team or player would sustain the sort of conversion we are seeing thus far. |
| | dpilgrim
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