| Odds for our record to go... 19:38 - Aug 9 with 6950 views | Yaffle |
...I asked and Paddy Power will give you 100/1 for an EPL team to win a match by 9 goals or more in the 17/18 season.
Anyone think that's a good price? |  | | |  |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:42 - Aug 9 with 6907 views | AdmiralFunge |
Dreadful price. How many PL games have there been since 94/95? It's come properly close once; when Spurs did Wigan 9-1 (IIRC); Defoe got 6 or something. |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 19:42 - Aug 9 with 6904 views | The_Romford_Blue |
A shocker of a price
These days at 5-0 or 6-0, managers like Guardiola seemingly get the players to chill and avoid injuries. So they sub the best players and just keep the ball. |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 19:48 - Aug 9 with 6871 views | PJH |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:42 - Aug 9 by AdmiralFunge |
Dreadful price. How many PL games have there been since 94/95? It's come properly close once; when Spurs did Wigan 9-1 (IIRC); Defoe got 6 or something. |
Did SBR's Newcastle not get an 8-0 against Sheff W, that was quite close. |  | | |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:57 - Aug 9 with 6835 views | J2BLUE |
Not going to be broken unless a team like City need to make up a massive goal difference or there's a feud between two managers.
Once a team gets to 4-5 now we get half an hour of passing around the back 4. |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 19:57 - Aug 9 with 6835 views | clive_baker |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:48 - Aug 9 by PJH |
Did SBR's Newcastle not get an 8-0 against Sheff W, that was quite close. |
Yeah Dyer scored.
Chelsea beat Wigan 8-0 too, and Villa. Didn't Southampton give Sunderland an 8-0 tonking? Could've been double figures if memory serves.
As a 100-1 bet I would say it's as likely as us winning the league |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 20:32 - Aug 9 with 6745 views | AdmiralFunge |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:57 - Aug 9 by clive_baker |
Yeah Dyer scored.
Chelsea beat Wigan 8-0 too, and Villa. Didn't Southampton give Sunderland an 8-0 tonking? Could've been double figures if memory serves.
As a 100-1 bet I would say it's as likely as us winning the league |
Ah, fair enough. There's a couple of 'nearly's' in there.
Still a very poor price though. | |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 20:42 - Aug 9 with 6689 views | tractorboy7777 |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:57 - Aug 9 by clive_baker |
Yeah Dyer scored.
Chelsea beat Wigan 8-0 too, and Villa. Didn't Southampton give Sunderland an 8-0 tonking? Could've been double figures if memory serves.
As a 100-1 bet I would say it's as likely as us winning the league |
Boro beat Man City 8-1 a few years back |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 04:29 - Aug 10 with 6459 views | connorscontract |
| Odds for our record to go... on 20:42 - Aug 9 by tractorboy7777 |
Boro beat Man City 8-1 a few years back |
So that's 3 near misses in 22 years since.
And West Ham lost 7-1 to them after us, with Craig Forrest in goal again.
Put all that together and I'd say it probably will happen at some point in the next 50 years, so 100-1 is attractive. | | | |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 08:39 - Aug 10 with 6276 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Odds for our record to go... on 19:42 - Aug 9 by AdmiralFunge |
Dreadful price. How many PL games have there been since 94/95? It's come properly close once; when Spurs did Wigan 9-1 (IIRC); Defoe got 6 or something. |
Although on the contrary, I'd suggest the chances of it happening within 100 seasons is quite high, so you could argue that 100-1 is decent
Obviously for that to work properly the 100-1 would need to be available every year, which you can't guarantee being the case |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 08:44 - Aug 10 with 6259 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| Odds for our record to go... on 08:39 - Aug 10 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Although on the contrary, I'd suggest the chances of it happening within 100 seasons is quite high, so you could argue that 100-1 is decent
Obviously for that to work properly the 100-1 would need to be available every year, which you can't guarantee being the case |
Exactly. | | | |
| Odds for our record to go... on 08:45 - Aug 10 with 6254 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Odds for our record to go... on 04:29 - Aug 10 by connorscontract |
So that's 3 near misses in 22 years since.
And West Ham lost 7-1 to them after us, with Craig Forrest in goal again.
Put all that together and I'd say it probably will happen at some point in the next 50 years, so 100-1 is attractive. |
Forest lost 0-8 to Man Utd once as well. |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 11:18 - Aug 10 with 6131 views | Yaffle |
Thanks for the feedback. I'm no mathematician but...
in 25 years there have been 9,746 matches. Of these only 1 has been won by a 9 goal margin. 
On 14 occasions a team has won by a 7 goal (or more) margin:
Manchester United v Ipswich Town 9—0
Newcastle United v Sheffield Wednesday 8—0
Tottenham Hotspur v Wigan Athletic 9—1
Chelsea v Wigan Athletic 8—0
Chelsea v Aston Villa 8—0
Southampton v Sunderland 8—0
Blackburn Rovers v Nottingham Forest 7—0
Manchester United v Barnsley 7—0
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United 1—8
Arsenal v Everton 7—0
Arsenal v Middlesbrough 7—0
Middlesbrough v Manchester City 8—1
Chelsea v Stoke City 7—0
Manchester City v Norwich City 7—0
So, marginally more than once every 2 seasons, someone gets beaten by 7 or more goals. As we are betting against the odds of something happening in the entire season, if the bet was a team to win by 7 goals or more in the season, the odds should 2/1? Question is, do we think in the statistically possible scenario that this occurs, do we think teams will press on a try and score more? The board opinion appears to be not.
Goals per game stats have been pretty consistent over the years (2.64) but have been creeping up to around 2.8 per game over the last 7 years (excluding 14/15). Arguably the league is more competitive and attacking in style than ever this season and goal difference could be crucial for league position and continental qualification.
I reckon it's worth £20. | | | |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:34 - Aug 10 with 6118 views | Bloots |
| Odds for our record to go... on 11:18 - Aug 10 by Yaffle |
Thanks for the feedback. I'm no mathematician but...
in 25 years there have been 9,746 matches. Of these only 1 has been won by a 9 goal margin.
On 14 occasions a team has won by a 7 goal (or more) margin:
Manchester United v Ipswich Town 9—0
Newcastle United v Sheffield Wednesday 8—0
Tottenham Hotspur v Wigan Athletic 9—1
Chelsea v Wigan Athletic 8—0
Chelsea v Aston Villa 8—0
Southampton v Sunderland 8—0
Blackburn Rovers v Nottingham Forest 7—0
Manchester United v Barnsley 7—0
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United 1—8
Arsenal v Everton 7—0
Arsenal v Middlesbrough 7—0
Middlesbrough v Manchester City 8—1
Chelsea v Stoke City 7—0
Manchester City v Norwich City 7—0
So, marginally more than once every 2 seasons, someone gets beaten by 7 or more goals. As we are betting against the odds of something happening in the entire season, if the bet was a team to win by 7 goals or more in the season, the odds should 2/1? Question is, do we think in the statistically possible scenario that this occurs, do we think teams will press on a try and score more? The board opinion appears to be not.
Goals per game stats have been pretty consistent over the years (2.64) but have been creeping up to around 2.8 per game over the last 7 years (excluding 14/15). Arguably the league is more competitive and attacking in style than ever this season and goal difference could be crucial for league position and continental qualification.
I reckon it's worth £20. |
....to prove that the odds are in fact 9,746-1.
If you're betting on a team winning by 9 goals then surely you should have used that as a benchmark and not winning by 7?
Just saying. |  |
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| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:37 - Aug 10 with 6106 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:34 - Aug 10 by Bloots |
....to prove that the odds are in fact 9,746-1.
If you're betting on a team winning by 9 goals then surely you should have used that as a benchmark and not winning by 7?
Just saying. |
You've got him there | |
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| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:39 - Aug 10 with 6101 views | clive_baker |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:34 - Aug 10 by Bloots |
....to prove that the odds are in fact 9,746-1.
If you're betting on a team winning by 9 goals then surely you should have used that as a benchmark and not winning by 7?
Just saying. |
On that basis alone it would represent good odds then.
You're essentially getting 380 chances for something that has proved a 1 in 9,746 eventuality historically. Therefore 26/1 would represent proportionally 'fair' odds.
There probably is a point around the fact it's less likely to happen now. The lesser teams are less crap. Having said that, if Huddersfield go a few down away to Man City and get a red card or 2 it's not unfeasible. I would still argue it's a better place to invest £10 than on us winning the Championship at the same odds. Also it'll be open / possible all season, until the very last day which in itself has some value from an interest perspective. [Post edited 10 Aug 2017 11:59]
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| Odds for our record to go... on 11:45 - Aug 10 with 6085 views | BlueNomad |
| Odds for our record to go... on 20:42 - Aug 9 by tractorboy7777 |
Boro beat Man City 8-1 a few years back |
As City's history started when the current owner bought them it doesn't count (according to those who have "always" supported them. |  | | |
| Odds for our record to go... on 11:51 - Aug 10 with 6068 views | wkj |
Yeah I think 100/1 isn't that good a price at all [Post edited 10 Aug 2017 11:52]
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| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:57 - Aug 10 with 6049 views | Yaffle |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:37 - Aug 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
You've got him there |
Got me where exactly? You are both mistaken. 9746/1 would be the probability for any single given match, but as I said, the bet is across the season so the true odds if you want to be a smart @rse using your logic, would be 25/1 (i.e.1 occurrence in 25 seasons).
However, it's just meant to be a bit of fun. You go back to your 'professional' gambling | | | |
| Odds for our record to go... on 12:03 - Aug 10 with 6031 views | gainsboroughblue |
| Odds for our record to go... on 08:45 - Aug 10 by ITFC_Forever |
Forest lost 0-8 to Man Utd once as well. |
And that was at home. Arguably a much worse result. |  |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 12:11 - Aug 10 with 5997 views | clive_baker |
| Odds for our record to go... on 12:03 - Aug 10 by gainsboroughblue |
And that was at home. Arguably a much worse result. |
Think Forest did score to be fair but you know it's a bad day at the office when Solskjaar comes off the bench and scores 4 goals in about 10 minutes. | |
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| Odds for our record to go... on 12:15 - Aug 10 with 5972 views | gainsboroughblue |
Anyway, one of their goals shouldn't have counted. I still say it was 8. | |
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| Calm down.... on 12:33 - Aug 10 with 5921 views | Bloots |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:57 - Aug 10 by Yaffle |
Got me where exactly? You are both mistaken. 9746/1 would be the probability for any single given match, but as I said, the bet is across the season so the true odds if you want to be a smart @rse using your logic, would be 25/1 (i.e.1 occurrence in 25 seasons).
However, it's just meant to be a bit of fun. You go back to your 'professional' gambling |
....#bantz.
I'm going to have a bet on it now, you've convinced me. | |
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| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 14:39 - Aug 10 with 5834 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 11:57 - Aug 10 by Yaffle |
Got me where exactly? You are both mistaken. 9746/1 would be the probability for any single given match, but as I said, the bet is across the season so the true odds if you want to be a smart @rse using your logic, would be 25/1 (i.e.1 occurrence in 25 seasons).
However, it's just meant to be a bit of fun. You go back to your 'professional' gambling |
I've never said I'm a professional gambler?
You've literally made that up to make yourself feel better. I'm a normal punter like everyone else other than on one greyhound meeting a week. | |
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| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 20:10 - Aug 10 with 5725 views | Yaffle |
| You've just gone to a lot of effort there..... on 14:39 - Aug 10 by The_Romford_Blue |
I've never said I'm a professional gambler?
You've literally made that up to make yourself feel better. I'm a normal punter like everyone else other than on one greyhound meeting a week. |
To make myself feel better!  I feel pretty good actually.
I have in effect got 380 bets of £0.053p on something that has happened once in 9746 games at odds of 37,750/1. Happy with that value.
As mentioned above, it's a bet that will last the season, right up until the last day and is a bit of fun. | | | |
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