| 15 wins from the last 20 13:28 - Jan 15 with 4921 views | clive_baker |
Is it doable? Yes, but will be a big ask. Would leave us on 96 which typically would be enough to win a league, in all but 1 (2018) of the past 10 seasons would get you 2nd at least. Crazy that it might not even be enough at the current run rate of the top 2, but hopefully it would be.
We’re not in ‘must win’ territory yet and of course some wins are bigger than others (Wednesday at home for example), but we certainly need to find a way to win soon. Couple of big games before the FA cup break and can’t help but feel we need 6 points from them.
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:17 - Jan 15 with 3419 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
15 wins is only 96 points if we lose the other 5. We do not currently lose anything close to a quarter of our matches. We could get 96 points with 13 wins and 6 draws.
If we can win 13 or 14 of our last 20 matches, we will be promoted. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:28 - Jan 15 with 3367 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:17 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
15 wins is only 96 points if we lose the other 5. We do not currently lose anything close to a quarter of our matches. We could get 96 points with 13 wins and 6 draws.
If we can win 13 or 14 of our last 20 matches, we will be promoted. |
Yes think it’s very unlikely we don’t draw any more, perhaps 14 and 3 draws. Leaves us a few we can lose.
Either way the next 2 are huge before the FA cup break. Going in to the last 18 looking at 13 from 18 wouldn’t concern me greatly, what with that new additions etc. Wednesday still need to play Plymouth and we have that game in hand. All to play for but we need to start picking up a string of wins. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:32 - Jan 15 with 3357 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:28 - Jan 15 by clive_baker |
Yes think it’s very unlikely we don’t draw any more, perhaps 14 and 3 draws. Leaves us a few we can lose.
Either way the next 2 are huge before the FA cup break. Going in to the last 18 looking at 13 from 18 wouldn’t concern me greatly, what with that new additions etc. Wednesday still need to play Plymouth and we have that game in hand. All to play for but we need to start picking up a string of wins. |
You seem to have set an arbitrary 96 points as a bench mark.
I would look at the situation on 11 February after Sheff Wed have played Plymouth and then us. At that point the current top 3 will all have played each other twice. It will give a realistic picture of who is actually playing catch up and how big a gap it is. We could really do with closing the gap before then. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:44 - Jan 15 with 3296 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:32 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
You seem to have set an arbitrary 96 points as a bench mark.
I would look at the situation on 11 February after Sheff Wed have played Plymouth and then us. At that point the current top 3 will all have played each other twice. It will give a realistic picture of who is actually playing catch up and how big a gap it is. We could really do with closing the gap before then. |
It is arbitrary at this stage, but given the run rate of Wednesday and Plymouth it wouldn’t be enough. I would be surprised in reality if it isn’t enough but I don’t think it’ll be too much below that. 2nd place will almost certainly start in a 9 I would think. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:50 - Jan 15 with 3246 views | LankHenners |
6 of the next 9 games are against the current bottom 6, 4 of which are at home - have to aiming for maximum points from that lot. The other 3 are Oxford and BR away which are awkward but we've beaten both comfortably once already and the Wednesday game which is big (and I think will be tougher than Plymouth). 7 points from those 3 would be very good which is what we need the standard to be. Auto-winning teams go on long consistent runs of not losing and racking up wins and we have a very good opportunity to do that over the next 8 weeks.
Do so and we'll be back on track and everyone on the pitch and in the stands will get a confidence boost. Conversely if we concede more last minute equalisers, lose to Wednesday and drop points against the dross people will go into panic mode, particularly if teams around us keep going at the rate they are currently. 20 games left will quickly become 15, then 10...
Hopefully we can step it up a bit to put teams to the sword and keep them there before they get an opportunity to score from nothing, Hirst and Broadhead (plus AN Other?) bring added quality and some of the luck that has deserted us and found our opponents in the first half of the season arrives at our feet when we need it. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:52 - Jan 15 with 3214 views | chicoazul |
Lol |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:52 - Jan 15 with 3218 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
We don't need 15 wins from 20. We need 40 points or so, which is 12 wins and 4 draws. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:02 - Jan 15 with 3168 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:52 - Jan 15 by Cheltenham_Blue |
We don't need 15 wins from 20. We need 40 points or so, which is 12 wins and 4 draws. |
Would 91 be enough for 2nd this season though? | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:08 - Jan 15 with 3131 views | Bent_double |
I'm thinking 14 wins, maybe 3 draws, and 3 defeats (SW, Derby and a surprise loss to a team near the bottom. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:18 - Jan 15 with 3081 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:02 - Jan 15 by clive_baker |
Would 91 be enough for 2nd this season though? |
if we end on 91 points, we've had an amazing season.
If the two promoted get more that that, then its got little to do with us. 91 should be more than enough to get a side up. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:18 - Jan 15 with 3078 views | BigCommon |
Yes, doable...But rather than look too far ahead, let's just string a few wins together and get some momentum and positive feel back...A lot can happen in 4 months of football.. |  | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:43 - Jan 15 with 3017 views | billlm |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:32 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
You seem to have set an arbitrary 96 points as a bench mark.
I would look at the situation on 11 February after Sheff Wed have played Plymouth and then us. At that point the current top 3 will all have played each other twice. It will give a realistic picture of who is actually playing catch up and how big a gap it is. We could really do with closing the gap before then. |
Sounds more realistic,
Oxford's fortunes have changed for the better tough match to win that one,
But we really need to win Oxford Morecambe and Cambridge before we play wednesday,
Then as you say after Wednesday play us both it will become clearer,
Really need to win three on the trot now,
We have the squad do we have the mentality,
That's questionable, |  | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:48 - Jan 15 with 2998 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:08 - Jan 15 by Bent_double |
I'm thinking 14 wins, maybe 3 draws, and 3 defeats (SW, Derby and a surprise loss to a team near the bottom. |
Losing to Wednesday at PR would be a big blow to our chances. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:51 - Jan 15 with 2984 views | ibbleobble |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 14:17 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
15 wins is only 96 points if we lose the other 5. We do not currently lose anything close to a quarter of our matches. We could get 96 points with 13 wins and 6 draws.
If we can win 13 or 14 of our last 20 matches, we will be promoted. |
Winning 14 of our last 20 would mean our win ratio needs to increase from what it is currently by another 17%. A 70% win ratio between now and May. That would be some run but I’ll wage a bet that’s not going to happen given the persistent recurring themes blighting our season. |  | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:55 - Jan 15 with 2967 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:51 - Jan 15 by ibbleobble |
Winning 14 of our last 20 would mean our win ratio needs to increase from what it is currently by another 17%. A 70% win ratio between now and May. That would be some run but I’ll wage a bet that’s not going to happen given the persistent recurring themes blighting our season. |
We have won 14 from 26, throwing away a winning position at the end in 4 of those too. If we can improve on throwing away the lead, we would be there. 13 from 20 is a 65% win rate. We won 12 from our first 20 matches this season. It is definitely achievable. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:59 - Jan 15 with 2945 views | Bent_double |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:48 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Losing to Wednesday at PR would be a big blow to our chances. |
Yes, agreed, but at the moment I think SW would win that one - hopefully they will hit a poor run of form in the next month, but I'm not expecting it.
I still think it's Plymouth that we need to push into 3rd, unfortunately though, yesterday has given them a psycological boost for the rest of the season , whilst denting ours further. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:05 - Jan 15 with 2913 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:18 - Jan 15 by Cheltenham_Blue |
if we end on 91 points, we've had an amazing season.
If the two promoted get more that that, then its got little to do with us. 91 should be more than enough to get a side up. |
That’s not really the question. It’s more to do with what will actually likely be required for promotion from where we are now. Of course it’s guess work but 91 feels light, as ridiculous as that sounds | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:41 - Jan 15 with 2795 views | Stewart27 |
I think it’s more than do-able.
Nice to be in this position chasing down a small number of points for once. | | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:45 - Jan 15 with 2789 views | Mullet |
In the context of the season, whatever the magic number is it seems likely we can do it to me.
If this has been the blip and we are coming out of this illness with new signings to boot, there's every reason to think our form will pick up to prior levels. Maybe even improve.
The issue is then how many points teams take off the other two, as that impacts the chase too. The only thing I feel less confident about is the title now. Everything else is still up for grabs. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:46 - Jan 15 with 2773 views | Illinoisblue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:18 - Jan 15 by BigCommon |
Yes, doable...But rather than look too far ahead, let's just string a few wins together and get some momentum and positive feel back...A lot can happen in 4 months of football.. |
Let’s just beat Oxford first. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 18:02 - Jan 15 with 2590 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:45 - Jan 15 by Mullet |
In the context of the season, whatever the magic number is it seems likely we can do it to me.
If this has been the blip and we are coming out of this illness with new signings to boot, there's every reason to think our form will pick up to prior levels. Maybe even improve.
The issue is then how many points teams take off the other two, as that impacts the chase too. The only thing I feel less confident about is the title now. Everything else is still up for grabs. |
I’m with you, lots of reasons to believe and lots of football to be played. I’m less bothered about the title, not fussed if we finish 1st or 2nd to be honest | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 18:02 - Jan 15 with 2586 views | ibbleobble |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:55 - Jan 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
We have won 14 from 26, throwing away a winning position at the end in 4 of those too. If we can improve on throwing away the lead, we would be there. 13 from 20 is a 65% win rate. We won 12 from our first 20 matches this season. It is definitely achievable. |
I’m not saying it’s not within the team to do so, it just won’t happen. We need to turn around a bit of a ‘slump’, bed in and find the balance with the new signings, beat everyone in the bottom half of the table (9 teams) and beat 4 of the sides out of 10 placed in the top half.
This gives us 7 games leeway to not take maximum points. Stay tuned. We’ll continue this chat game-on-game as we go. | | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 19:24 - Jan 15 with 2397 views | Ryorry |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 18:02 - Jan 15 by ibbleobble |
I’m not saying it’s not within the team to do so, it just won’t happen. We need to turn around a bit of a ‘slump’, bed in and find the balance with the new signings, beat everyone in the bottom half of the table (9 teams) and beat 4 of the sides out of 10 placed in the top half.
This gives us 7 games leeway to not take maximum points. Stay tuned. We’ll continue this chat game-on-game as we go. |
The commentators on Spurs v Arsenal just now pointed out that with only 9 games left in one season (can't recall which), the Gunners (I think it was) were top of the league by 8 points, but were still overhauled by ManU (iirc), who pipped them for the title.
Of course top 2 can still happen for us after 46 games when we have not just 9, but 20 games to go. You & some others are judging us by our season so far, when basically we are now in a new situation with 3 new players in. And obviously KM is astute enough to re-draw our lines with those 3 added to our mix. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 19:51 - Jan 15 with 2330 views | Guthrum |
In 2018, 96 points would have got you 2nd place as well (in fact did, for Blackburn), on the grounds 3rd only had 87. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 21:10 - Jan 15 with 2139 views | NeedhamChris |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 19:51 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
In 2018, 96 points would have got you 2nd place as well (in fact did, for Blackburn), on the grounds 3rd only had 87. |
My worry here is that there's such a chasm between the top clubs and the rest of the league - that this season is ripe for being an exception to that.
A Peterborough fan in 2012/13 would have been pretty confident that 54 points would have kept them in the Championship.
Right now, we should be focused less on what we might need, and more on getting into the top two and then staying there. Over the last 10 games we've lost a little ground on Plymouth and performed much worse than Wednesday. We need to fix that soon, otherwise all of this is redundant. | |
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