| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies 22:02 - May 13 with 2249 views | gordon |
If anywhere near accurate, this is very low given the Spanish death toll. Means a second wave is pretty much inevitable in the UK (we can't be at anymore than 10%ish if the Spanish data is roughly accurate) given the premature easing of restrictions here and the absence of any meaningful way of identifying and suppressing outbreaks in a timely fashion.
The German data on antibody prevalence was coming from a town at the centre of their outbreak, whereas this is (supposedly) a large randomised sample. Not very good news at all.
[Post edited 13 May 2020 22:03]
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:03 - May 14 with 444 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 08:55 - May 14 by Guthrum |
Which is why we would be stupid to lift too far, too quickly. Doubly so as we are behind countries like Spain in the progress of the disease.
The hope is that by careful easing of some restrictions, while taking strict precautions and - yes - being alert (!), the increases can be kept under control and fresh outbreaks spotted, isolated and dealt with. This will be easier to do second time around, as we now know what we're looking for and much more about how the virus behaves. |
We haven't used the time of the lockdown to put in place any meaningful infrastructure to identify and control new outbreaks. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:06 - May 14 with 443 views | Guthrum |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:03 - May 14 by gordon |
We haven't used the time of the lockdown to put in place any meaningful infrastructure to identify and control new outbreaks. |
Another reason not to lift too soon, then. Plus we need to get the numbers down further for it to be really effective, anyway. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:14 - May 14 with 436 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:06 - May 14 by Guthrum |
Another reason not to lift too soon, then. Plus we need to get the numbers down further for it to be really effective, anyway. |
Even in high risk environments like care homes where outbreaks have occurred, people are regularly reporting that if they can get a test, then it is taking up to 2 weeks to get a result, if they ever do get a result from the test.
It's shambolic - we built a testing system designed to give the impression that we hit an arbitrary target, rather than one that's much use in actually dealing with the virus. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:23 - May 14 with 419 views | Pinewoodblue |
Be interesting to see results for similar tests in NYC, population just over 8m , 187,000 confirmed cases and 20,000 deaths. |  |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:31 - May 14 with 419 views | Chutney |
I think there's the danger of analysis paralysis with this, but really it's quite simple.
There are only 2 end goals:
1) A vaccine
2) We live with this thing, and it wipes out 1% of the population globally, over a period of time.
That's the reality of the situation unfortunately. So there's lots of effort and attention going into point 1, which people are hopeful of in the not too distant future. Meanwhile the balancing act for point 2 is that employment and economies will be protected as best as possible, and people will start going about their business again but with measures to ensure point 2 happens at a much slower rate than it otherwise would. |  | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:43 - May 14 with 410 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:31 - May 14 by Chutney |
I think there's the danger of analysis paralysis with this, but really it's quite simple.
There are only 2 end goals:
1) A vaccine
2) We live with this thing, and it wipes out 1% of the population globally, over a period of time.
That's the reality of the situation unfortunately. So there's lots of effort and attention going into point 1, which people are hopeful of in the not too distant future. Meanwhile the balancing act for point 2 is that employment and economies will be protected as best as possible, and people will start going about their business again but with measures to ensure point 2 happens at a much slower rate than it otherwise would. |
I don't think that's an accurate or realistic assessment. With most viral infections drug treatments will be available after a while, a vaccine will help, and we'll learn more about how to reduce transmission risk. Those countries that have responded aggressively will work out how to balance the risks over time.
Those countries that say it's inevitable that hundreds of thousands of deaths are inevitable will probably end up with that, and much higher economic costs to boot. | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:45 - May 14 with 405 views | gordon |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 09:23 - May 14 by Pinewoodblue |
Be interesting to see results for similar tests in NYC, population just over 8m , 187,000 confirmed cases and 20,000 deaths. |
Yes, I still think that there must be urban centres, particularly with high proportions of younger people with significantly higher levels of antibody prevalence. There's also a significant lag in any study, because it must take least 2 weeks (could be longer as well) post-infection for the antibodies to show up (as well as reporting / analysis time). | | | |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 11:46 - May 14 with 378 views | Girthyguy |
| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 05:35 - May 14 by tonybied |
Based on what statistics? Didn't Patrick
Valance say last week that it was believed in London around 10% of the population had caught the virus and somewhere around 4% for the rest of the country? |
Just the ones that are flying around. I done my own guesstimate. 500k dead was likely for herd Immunity were we told and if we carried on with the initial plan. So I thought if we had 33k dead but allegedly it's about double that so let's say 60k ish. I make that 11-12% ish but I'm just guessing like I think a lot of us are. I'm sure I'm completely wrong. This is why we should of ramped up testing sooner. | | | |
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| Only 5% of Spanish population with antibodies on 12:10 - May 14 with 355 views | gordon |
Seroprevalence data from the UK is going to be released this afternoon btw | | | |
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