| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table 00:31 - Mar 6 with 3388 views | Guthrum |
As per usual, based on recent form. Still got a bit of ground to make up.
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:33 - Mar 6 with 529 views | positivity |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:15 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
Swindon had 63pts after 36 games in 2013. Finished in sixth place with 74pts.
This season will probably be higher than that but if 6th place does get around the 80pts mark, I would be surprised. If it does happen, I can’t see any of the chasing pack being close to them. [Post edited 6 Mar 2022 21:31]
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swindon were 3rd at the time, mk have 6 points more than that this year at the same stage.
it's an exceptional year
the bottom 4 have a lot less points than this year, so the points distribution is less even than the norm
even if the final 10 games revert to historical norms, you'll still see the 6th &7th team attaining around the 78-80 point mark |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:35 - Mar 6 with 527 views | jeera |
Guthrum out! |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 00:08 - Mar 7 with 504 views | tractorshark |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:33 - Mar 6 by positivity |
swindon were 3rd at the time, mk have 6 points more than that this year at the same stage.
it's an exceptional year
the bottom 4 have a lot less points than this year, so the points distribution is less even than the norm
even if the final 10 games revert to historical norms, you'll still see the 6th &7th team attaining around the 78-80 point mark |
I don’t disagree it will be higher than 74 but you asked for an example and I’ve given you one.
It doesn’t matter what position Swindon were in at the time. All that matters is where they finished and on what points total.
The MK Dons point is totally irrelevant unless they too finish 6th.
I imagine there are quite a few examples of clubs who were 3rd, 4th or 5th in March and ended up finishing sixth.
Bottom line is in that season Swindon had more points than Sheff Wed right now and finished 6th on 74 points. It could happen again, it most likely will not.
But I’ll stand by my original statement, if we get 77 points I think we’ll be in the playoffs. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 16:48 - Mar 7 with 368 views | positivity |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 00:08 - Mar 7 by tractorshark |
I don’t disagree it will be higher than 74 but you asked for an example and I’ve given you one.
It doesn’t matter what position Swindon were in at the time. All that matters is where they finished and on what points total.
The MK Dons point is totally irrelevant unless they too finish 6th.
I imagine there are quite a few examples of clubs who were 3rd, 4th or 5th in March and ended up finishing sixth.
Bottom line is in that season Swindon had more points than Sheff Wed right now and finished 6th on 74 points. It could happen again, it most likely will not.
But I’ll stand by my original statement, if we get 77 points I think we’ll be in the playoffs. |
don't think so, statistically speaking, if the points total of the 3rd placed team is higher than average, it's likely to remain being higher than average at the end. the identity of the team and their final position is unimportant.
similarly if the points for the 6th placed team now is higher than average then it is likely to be higher than average at the end
i hope you're right about the points needed for 6th though (and that we get them!) | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:10 - Mar 7 with 314 views | Bluroo |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:41 - Mar 6 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I think that as the end of the season draws near teams do tend to drop off. Form is never consistent throughout the season. One or two of those in 4-8th may well improve. Most will drop off. Several factors will play into this.
1 Several of those teams will have 3 matches a week more often than not and don't have big squads to cope with it. Some have probably managed so far without using very many players at all.
2 Pressure is a funny thing that affects some teams negatively. As mid-table sides play and are safe, they might play in a more relaxed style that often throws in surprise results. Others near the bottom might be there having missed a player who returns and they have an entrenched fighting spirit or a new manager who gets them playing more effectively.
In short, I very much doubt that all of Plymouth, Wycombe, Oxford, Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth will continue on their present form. Of course, if half of them do then it will be a tall order for us. However, if 2/3rds don't 6th place could easily be up for grabs.
We just need to keep getting results. I think 76 points will be enough. Fewer might be. We will see. |
This is based on “recent form” but Plymouth have to play 8 of the top 10 in their last 12.
No way will they get to 81. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:14 - Mar 7 with 309 views | tractorshark |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 16:48 - Mar 7 by positivity |
don't think so, statistically speaking, if the points total of the 3rd placed team is higher than average, it's likely to remain being higher than average at the end. the identity of the team and their final position is unimportant.
similarly if the points for the 6th placed team now is higher than average then it is likely to be higher than average at the end
i hope you're right about the points needed for 6th though (and that we get them!) |
To be honest you may well be right, who knows? I just don’t think it will be as high as 81pts as the OP’s table predicts. And that’s because I see more draws.
But, like I say, it’s a good thread and a good talking point. The more pertinent question is will Ipswich hit 77pts? The next couple of weeks will probably reveal that. I do have my doubts but I very much want to be proved wrong. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:15 - Mar 7 with 308 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:10 - Mar 7 by Bluroo |
This is based on “recent form” but Plymouth have to play 8 of the top 10 in their last 12.
No way will they get to 81. |
Indeed. That is what I am saying. At least one of those top six (and probably a couple) will drop off in form. If it is Rotherham and Wigan/MK Dons, then that does us no good at all. Hopefully Plymouth and Wycombe/Oxford do.
It is down to us to get as many points as we can and see if it is enough. I doubt 6th place will have many more than 74 points at the end. |  |
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