| More spinlessness from Labour? 16:07 - May 8 with 1007 views | DJR |
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/08/labour-urged-to-say-whether-it-
The problem it seems to me is that the more Labour pander to the right wing media agenda, the more it will be beholden to the media in office.
There must surely be a point where it has to stand up for some principles? If not, it faces the prospect of the anti-Tory vote being split when it comes to a general election. something evident in last week's polls where the Labour share of the vote (at 35%) was no higher than the local elections in 2022, and this despite the Johnson and Truss debacles. In contrast, Labour under Blair got 48% in 1995. [Post edited 8 May 2023 16:11]
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| More spinlessness from Labour? on 16:15 - May 8 with 959 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
Your second para sounds like the sort of desperate stuff a Tory MP would come out with after disastrous local election results.
Not sure there's any evidence, either, that pandering to the press now means they're beholden to them once in office. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| More spinlessness from Labour? on 17:17 - May 8 with 826 views | tractordownsouth |
That last point about vote share change from last year needs some context attached. The 2022 locals included London and Wales, which are traditional Labour strongholds, whereas this time it was mostly traditional marginals and rural Tory leaning areas being fought.
Also, the number of Lib Dem and Green seats show the is the anti-Tory electorate being efficient not split. Lib Dems won in the South, the Greens' big success was in Mid Suffolk whereas Labour ticked off virtually all their bellweather targets like Stoke and Plymouth, where they're battling the Tories. Labour losing a few votes in Surrey and North Devon is irrelevant because the Lib Dems are the main anti-Tory party there.
In Brighton, the one area where they were in direct competition with the Greens rather than the Tories, Labour won easily. [Post edited 8 May 2023 17:18]
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| More spinlessness from Labour? on 18:15 - May 8 with 750 views | DJR |
| More spinlessness from Labour? on 17:17 - May 8 by tractordownsouth |
That last point about vote share change from last year needs some context attached. The 2022 locals included London and Wales, which are traditional Labour strongholds, whereas this time it was mostly traditional marginals and rural Tory leaning areas being fought.
Also, the number of Lib Dem and Green seats show the is the anti-Tory electorate being efficient not split. Lib Dems won in the South, the Greens' big success was in Mid Suffolk whereas Labour ticked off virtually all their bellweather targets like Stoke and Plymouth, where they're battling the Tories. Labour losing a few votes in Surrey and North Devon is irrelevant because the Lib Dems are the main anti-Tory party there.
In Brighton, the one area where they were in direct competition with the Greens rather than the Tories, Labour won easily. [Post edited 8 May 2023 17:18]
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I was pleased to see what happened in Brighton, but my figures were based on the projected national vote share, and one would have thought the main opposition party would have done better this year than last especially as national opinion polls this year are much better for Labour now than last year.
In any event, all the major metropolitan districts voted this time, and in some areas of the country, such as Dudley, Stockport, Bolton, Leicester and Essex, Labour didn't do especially well.
One of the points I am concerned about is that the split in the anti-Tory vote means that there will be constituencies where, at the next general election, it will not be clear who to vote for if the desire is to defeat the Tories.
Where I live is a case in point. In normal circumstances, Labour would be the main opposition party at a time like this, but Labour came a distant fourth last week behind the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens (with the Greens usurping Labour for good in my opinion). In addition, the Lib Dems and Greens ended up with roughly the same number of council seats, and along with Labour now hold the balance of power. But as they hold the same number of seats, it will not be clear who to vote for to defeat the Tories, and as a result I will just vote Labour.
Anyway, I'm not trying to create an argument, because my main concern is the spinelessness of Labour, but I do feel it may also have electoral consequences with people switching to the Greens and Lib Dems because they are not attracted by Labour, even in seats where Labour are the main opposition. And it mustn't be forgotten that some Tory voters come back to the party when it comes to a general election, which might well take place when the cost of living crisis is over. [Post edited 8 May 2023 18:28]
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| More spinlessness from Labour? on 22:43 - May 9 with 556 views | tractordownsouth |
| More spinlessness from Labour? on 18:15 - May 8 by DJR |
I was pleased to see what happened in Brighton, but my figures were based on the projected national vote share, and one would have thought the main opposition party would have done better this year than last especially as national opinion polls this year are much better for Labour now than last year.
In any event, all the major metropolitan districts voted this time, and in some areas of the country, such as Dudley, Stockport, Bolton, Leicester and Essex, Labour didn't do especially well.
One of the points I am concerned about is that the split in the anti-Tory vote means that there will be constituencies where, at the next general election, it will not be clear who to vote for if the desire is to defeat the Tories.
Where I live is a case in point. In normal circumstances, Labour would be the main opposition party at a time like this, but Labour came a distant fourth last week behind the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens (with the Greens usurping Labour for good in my opinion). In addition, the Lib Dems and Greens ended up with roughly the same number of council seats, and along with Labour now hold the balance of power. But as they hold the same number of seats, it will not be clear who to vote for to defeat the Tories, and as a result I will just vote Labour.
Anyway, I'm not trying to create an argument, because my main concern is the spinelessness of Labour, but I do feel it may also have electoral consequences with people switching to the Greens and Lib Dems because they are not attracted by Labour, even in seats where Labour are the main opposition. And it mustn't be forgotten that some Tory voters come back to the party when it comes to a general election, which might well take place when the cost of living crisis is over. [Post edited 8 May 2023 18:28]
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Yeah, agreed Tory voters will return to the fold but mostly because it’s a mid-term election rather than the cost of living getting better. With swing voters, I think it may get tougher for them with more and more people having to get increased fix rates on their mortgages deals between now and the election.
I don’t think the vote splitting will be too much of a problem, in all the competitive by-elections except Hartlepool since 2019, if the Labour vote has gone up, the Lib Dem number has decreased and vice versa so in most areas people are aware of the best tactical vote. Off the top of my head it’s only Jacob Rees Mogg’s seat in North East Somerset and a couple of the South London constituencies that have healthy votes for both main opposition parties, so it shouldn’t have much of an impact. | |
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