| Scissors 16:03 - Dec 15 with 3942 views | flykickingbybgunn |
Anybody not into maths read no further.
My much better half has two pairs of identical kitchen scissors. They come apart into male and female for cleaning.
She often uses both pairs and they sit on the draining board awaiting drying.
My problem is this.
What is the probability that I pick up a M and a F so that I can make a pair straight off ?
As I see it there are two conflicting probabilities.
If I pick up one, at random, it does not matter if it is M or F because what is left gives me a probability of 2-1 (66%) of picking up one to make the set.
On the other hand if I pick up two together then the results are MM, MF, FM or FF.
In other words 2-4 (50%)
They cant both be right.
P!ease help me. Answers on a post card to .....
Puzzled @ TWTD |  | | |  |
| Scissors on 11:36 - Dec 16 with 448 views | ITFCson |
| Scissors on 09:15 - Dec 16 by Nthsuffolkblue |
No problem. Easily done and why stats is potentially confusing. Part of it is having what we think should be the right answer and then looking to prove it rather than carefully working it out. If it is any consolation, I learnt the explanation of the 67% in the Monty Hall problem (and the fact it had that name) from lowhouse. Previously I had thought it had changed from 33% to 50% rather than the 67% it is. |
Given I was aware of the Monty Hall problem (having seen the film '21) and understanding it only compounded my annoyance at my incorrect workings this time around. |  | | |
| Scissors on 11:50 - Dec 16 with 428 views | ADStephenson |
| Scissors on 10:08 - Dec 16 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I did think the comment may have been rather harsh and I apologise for it. I was concerned that you were doubling down on false logic but I accept you recognise you got in a muddle. If we can admit our mistakes as teachers that is a good thing.
I apologise for the bluntness of my earlier comment. |
Thanks - if we can admit our mistakes (as anyone) that is a good thing! |  |
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| Scissors on 12:01 - Dec 16 with 404 views | Kievthegreat |
| Scissors on 11:36 - Dec 16 by ITFCson |
Given I was aware of the Monty Hall problem (having seen the film '21) and understanding it only compounded my annoyance at my incorrect workings this time around. |
The trick with Monty Hall is it's subtly adding in a variable (that the Quiz show host knows what's behind the doors) that on the face of it seems irrelevant, but has actually fundamentally changed the scenario.
I think the 'trick' here (not deliberately), is that the OP has planted the MM, MF. FM, FF part in the question which gives an impression of only 4 outcomes or that the 2nd scenario is in fact any different to the first. |  | | |
| Scissors on 19:31 - Dec 18 with 289 views | flykickingbybgunn |
Oh no !
"She who must be obeyed" has requested another pair of scissors for Christmas ....
Thank you for all your help and thoughts.
Now if I have 3 males and 3 females .......
I think that I may just go and boil my head. | | | |
| Scissors on 23:15 - Dec 18 with 267 views | Kievthegreat |
| Scissors on 19:31 - Dec 18 by flykickingbybgunn |
Oh no !
"She who must be obeyed" has requested another pair of scissors for Christmas ....
Thank you for all your help and thoughts.
Now if I have 3 males and 3 females .......
I think that I may just go and boil my head. |
Your odds have now worsened to 60%. Maybe we don't need the full debate this time though!  | | | |
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