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Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda 10:51 - Apr 8 with 987 viewsjayessess

If you wanted confirmation that even McKenna's very healthy points tally slightly underrates our underlying performances ... we're now 4th in the Expected Goals table:



As you might expect there are 4 teams above us who've out-performed xG MK Dons +9, Oxford +3, Sheffield Wednesdsy +3, Plymouth +21 (!) - all of them because they've scored substantially more goals that you'd expect from the chances they've created.

Basically, they score from half chances, set pieces, own goals etc. and we don't.
[Post edited 8 Apr 2022 11:05]

Blog: What Now? Taking a Look at Life in League One

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Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on 11:21 - Apr 8 with 870 viewspointofblue

It was similar with expected goals against - Plymouth has a far higher number than ourselves (54 to 41) yet have conceded one less in reality. They’re really fluking it this season.

In comparison, basically every expected goal against us has gone in.

This is the table after Cook’s final League game in charge:
https://experimental361.com/2021/12/03/expected-goals-table-league-1-28-nov-2021

By this point we should have only scored 26 goals but had actually netted 36; we had conceded 30 when our xG against was 22. Obviously Bonne’s loss of form is key to the decline of the former and we’ve managed to pull on xG against back into line with expectations. Plus we’ve moved up four places in the xG table.

Poll: Who would you play at right centre back on Saturday?

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Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on 11:38 - Apr 8 with 824 viewsjayessess

Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on 11:21 - Apr 8 by pointofblue

It was similar with expected goals against - Plymouth has a far higher number than ourselves (54 to 41) yet have conceded one less in reality. They’re really fluking it this season.

In comparison, basically every expected goal against us has gone in.

This is the table after Cook’s final League game in charge:
https://experimental361.com/2021/12/03/expected-goals-table-league-1-28-nov-2021

By this point we should have only scored 26 goals but had actually netted 36; we had conceded 30 when our xG against was 22. Obviously Bonne’s loss of form is key to the decline of the former and we’ve managed to pull on xG against back into line with expectations. Plus we’ve moved up four places in the xG table.


Checking that, I think we're only actually 1 point down on our expected points under McKenna, the bulk of the missing points are Cook (4) and McGreal (2)?

Plymouth is just wild. I'm not sure how you do that over 40 games!

Blog: What Now? Taking a Look at Life in League One

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Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on 11:47 - Apr 8 with 792 viewspointofblue

Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda on 11:38 - Apr 8 by jayessess

Checking that, I think we're only actually 1 point down on our expected points under McKenna, the bulk of the missing points are Cook (4) and McGreal (2)?

Plymouth is just wild. I'm not sure how you do that over 40 games!


I think to an extent we did it in 14/15, especially over autumn and Christmas. It then caught up with us during the spring which it amazingly hasn’t for Plymouth.

Yes, looking at that we dropped four points under Cook (looking at the table, four defeats which should have been draws but no additional wins) and two under McGreal, which I presume is the Sunderland game, so we’ve only ‘dropped’ one point overall under McKenna.

Poll: Who would you play at right centre back on Saturday?

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