British MoD assessment yesterday was that the numbers and equipment level on the Belarussian border are inadequate for a significant push.
The destruction of the power infrastructure seems to be about several main strategic goals:
1 a low risk way for Putin to rack up hits on Ukraine. "Red meat" for the hardline Russian nationalists who have felt rather emasculated recently, bless them.
2 create a different problem for Ukraine's military to respond to.
3 diminish the ability of Ukraine to be on an effective war footing.
4 make the long term reconstruction of Ukraine more difficult, leaving it weaker for longer.
5 force more Ukrainian citizens to leave, increasing refugee pressures on Western Europe in the hope of undermining support for Ukraine.
6 through a combination of the above "convince" Zelensky that the sooner he comes to the table the better, if he wants any infrastructure left in what remains of free Ukraine.
There is an additional interesting development:
Russian Airbases a fair way from the border have recently been hit with what are reported as drone attacks.
My speculation is that *maybe* Russia's aim in these mass missile and drone attacks is to finally achieve air supremacy.
By destroying the power grid and rendering early warning systems inoperational.
By disrupting communications.
By exhausting the supply of ground to air missiles.
If Putin achieved the goal of air supremacy then anywhere in Ukraine could be targeted at any time, with relatively little risk.
Until now the Ukrainian armed forces have rarely attacked what they would consider Russian territory. It was considered a line in the sand that might trigger nuclear escalation. The attacks on Russian airbases suggest that they consider this a risk that they* have to take. Which, in my speculation, could be because of the fear of Russian air superiority being established.
* the big caveat here is that the Ukrainian Defence Ministry have not taken responsibility for these attacks. In some cases the Russians have claimed they were accidents.
There are other possibilities:
1 Other "separatists" within Russia carrying out attacks.
2 Russian armed forces carrying out acts of sabotage so that they can't take part in a war that they don't support/are losing.
3 "False flag" explosions set up by Russian MoD to give a pretext for escalation.
4 Another power getting involved. There was speculation that Ukraine doesn't have drones with the required range and ability to loiter, in order to hit these targets. And there is no public record of NATO countries officially authorising the provision of such weapons to Ukraine. It would be quite the escalation by NATO to do this, and go against their policy so far of providing weapons for Ukraine to defend and retake land within its own internationally agreed borders, not to attack Russian territory.
By far the most likely explanation is that Ukrainian special forces have infiltrated Russia and are carrying out these attacks, though. In which case, it provides support for my speculation that Russia has reprioritised "air superiority" as a goal, and the Ukrainians are sufficiently desperate to avoid that, that they are willing to risk escalation to a point where Russian Nuclear Doctrine allows the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Edit to clarify Russian Airbases attacked recently [Post edited 16 Dec 2022 11:33]
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