| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World 17:05 - Apr 10 with 998 views | Kievthegreat |
Chances of finishing top 2 before today:
Plymouth - 79%
Ipswich - 77%
Sheffield - 36%
Barnsley - 8%
After todays game:
Ipswich - 69% (-8%)
Plymouth - 60% (-19%)
Sheffield - 59% (+23%)
Barnsley - 13% (+5%)
We dropped some important points, but Plymouth took a much bigger hit. We are now the favourites for winning the league and Autos according to their model. [Post edited 10 Apr 2023 17:07]
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World on 18:20 - Apr 10 with 808 views | Kievthegreat |
One other thing to keep in mind. We dropped 2 points away and it was very disappointing given the nature in which they were dropped, but Plymouth dropped 3 at home which is a much bigger deal. Their result is a much bigger outlier.
Obviously the inverse of that is our next 2 games are at home while all our rivals have back to back away games. This is when we need to maximise our points tally as it's when our opponents have their statistically toughest matchups. Percentages are from 538 computer prediction and they represent W/D/L. Brackets represent ranking them from most to least likely to win.
Plymouth:
Exeter (A) - 46%/25%/29% (6)
Shrewsbury (A) - 39%/27%/34% (7)
Wednesday:
Burton (A) - 66%/19%/14% (4)
Bristol Rovers (A) - 55%/24%/21% (5)
Barnsley:
Forest Green (A) - 75%/17%/8% (2)
Lincoln (A) - 46%/28%/26% (8)
Town:
Charlton (H) - 71%/19%/10% (3)
Port Vale (H) - 79%/15%/6% (1)
Bar Barnsley vs Forest Green, we have the 2 most winnable games. Plus Barnsley have a tricky trip to Lincoln to counter balance an easy game against Forest Green (although we thought it was a gimme for Wednesday too).
Given that from now to the end of the year, we will always be playing at home when our rivals are away or vice versa, I would expect there to be a lot of toing and froing till the end of the season. | | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World on 18:48 - Apr 10 with 746 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World on 18:20 - Apr 10 by Kievthegreat |
One other thing to keep in mind. We dropped 2 points away and it was very disappointing given the nature in which they were dropped, but Plymouth dropped 3 at home which is a much bigger deal. Their result is a much bigger outlier.
Obviously the inverse of that is our next 2 games are at home while all our rivals have back to back away games. This is when we need to maximise our points tally as it's when our opponents have their statistically toughest matchups. Percentages are from 538 computer prediction and they represent W/D/L. Brackets represent ranking them from most to least likely to win.
Plymouth:
Exeter (A) - 46%/25%/29% (6)
Shrewsbury (A) - 39%/27%/34% (7)
Wednesday:
Burton (A) - 66%/19%/14% (4)
Bristol Rovers (A) - 55%/24%/21% (5)
Barnsley:
Forest Green (A) - 75%/17%/8% (2)
Lincoln (A) - 46%/28%/26% (8)
Town:
Charlton (H) - 71%/19%/10% (3)
Port Vale (H) - 79%/15%/6% (1)
Bar Barnsley vs Forest Green, we have the 2 most winnable games. Plus Barnsley have a tricky trip to Lincoln to counter balance an easy game against Forest Green (although we thought it was a gimme for Wednesday too).
Given that from now to the end of the year, we will always be playing at home when our rivals are away or vice versa, I would expect there to be a lot of toing and froing till the end of the season. |
Not quite correct about the home and away bit. For some reason, Plymouth have 3 home matches on the trot meaning that for the last two matches both them and us are at home and away at the same time as each other.
Additionally, on 25th we are away while Wednesday do not play. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World on 18:54 - Apr 10 with 713 views | Kievthegreat |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - Not the End of the World on 18:48 - Apr 10 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Not quite correct about the home and away bit. For some reason, Plymouth have 3 home matches on the trot meaning that for the last two matches both them and us are at home and away at the same time as each other.
Additionally, on 25th we are away while Wednesday do not play. |
Correct on the Plymouth vs Burton game. Missed that they were at home on 29th and away last day like us . And yes on 25th, Wednesday don't play, but the others are still at home.
Big 8 days coming up. 6 points puts us back in the top 2 IMO as one of Wednesday or Plymouth will drop at least 2 points. Now just need to make it happen! | | | |
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