FiveThirtyEight update - almost there.... by Kievthegreat 22 Apr 2023 17:43

Chances of finishing top 2 before today:
Plymouth - 88%
Ipswich - 84%
Sheffield - 23%
Barnsley - 4%

After todays game:
Ipswich - 92% (+8%)
Plymouth - 91% (+3%)
Sheffield - 15% (-8%)
Barnsley - <1% (-3%)

And now chances of winning the league in their simulations...
Ipswich 42% (+4%)
Plymouth 56% (-1%)
Wednesday 2% (-3%)
Barnsley <1% (-4%)

Barnsley look to be out of it. They could win all their remaining games, but that it's unlikely that 94 points will get them top 2 now.

Meanwhile us getting a result in the hardest game of the weekend significantly boosts us in their statistical model, despite every team winning.