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UK Debt 2 Trillion
at 14:32 21 Aug 2020

It's fine. We control the issuer of the currency so it could all be paid off tomorrow. It won't be because of inflation and the fact that the economy needs UK Government debt to function.
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UK Debt 2 Trillion
at 14:31 21 Aug 2020

But you can't count one side of the balance sheet without considering the other.

I appreciate your point but both values have to move in unison.
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UK Debt 2 Trillion
at 12:08 21 Aug 2020

One more thing. This is why looking at both sides of the transaction is important. The debt is the liability side of the arrangement but for every liability there is an asset.So we could say that the national debt is £2tn but the national assets are £800bn (at least). Therefore our net position is no worse than £1.2tn.
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UK Debt 2 Trillion
at 12:06 21 Aug 2020

The BoE can create money, this is what QE does and the BoE ending up as the holder of UK debt is a result of QE. UK Govt issues Gilts and offers them to the market in the normal way (through GEMMS). BoE 'creates' cash to buy the gilts from the GEMMS. this creates more money in the GEMMS and aids liquidity.

The original intention had been to sell the debt back into the market when 'normal times' returned but there are no signs of that yet. As such, the debt held is just maturing and being replaced via the same mechanism. There is an argument for cancelling the BoE held debt but the economic argument against this is a risk of inflation - you would be effectively taking Sterling out of circulation.There is no sign of this actually happening though.

Also, it serves a political purpose to be able to point at a large number and use it as an excuse to hack away at the state.

Have a look at Japan's debt to GPD, this is probably where most Western countries will end up due to demographics. It hasn't been a problem for Japan and the have managed the stagnation relatively well.
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UK Debt 2 Trillion
at 11:58 21 Aug 2020

40% + of the UK national debt is held by the bank of England. The Government controls 100% of the BoE so, on payment of the coupon or maturation of that debt, the proceeds will cycle back round to HMT.

The excess borrowing this year is almost entirely funded by via BoE borrowing - it is increasing the 40%.

The remainder of the debt is held by a mix of institutional investors and pension schemes. The largest block of gilt holders are UK pension schemes - in other words, the second largest holders of UK debt are the UK residents and pension plan holders.

I wouldn't sweat the headline too much, always try and see who is on the other side, for every liability there is an asset.
[Post edited 21 Aug 2020 12:01]
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Ignorant question about the end of capitalism
at 16:40 6 Aug 2020

Also, there is a good discussion about whether or not monetary policy actually influences inflation anymore. With rates being so low the small changes to the base rate seem to be separate from the economic movements. In effect the central banks shot their bolt in 2008 and it is sort of irrelevant what they do now, they are just tinkering.
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Ignorant question about the end of capitalism
at 16:38 6 Aug 2020

The all of government accounts hold a clue in that 30%+ of the total gilt issuance is held by the Bank of England. This is a by product of the way that QE works. The original plan was to sell the debt back into the market in due course but that isn't happening and the debt is just maturing as per normal and the funds going to the BoE. The fact that UK Gov are financing the current debt spending by creating additional money and using it for (basically) more QE probably means that the BoE is holding 40%+ of the UK debt.

The rest of the gilts are held by a mix - some institutional investors, other governments and insurance companies and pension providers. UK gilts are a good hedge for retirement savings so the insurers and pension providers like them. Index-linked gilts were created for this function - it allowed pension providers to completely hedge away the inflation risk on pensions.

In terms of inflation - the government and central banks generally have struggled to get genuine inflation going for years. The only inflation we really see is currency inflation (after the brexit vote when they raised interest rates slightly) and that is just a function of forex washing through the inflation statistics. There was not and has been no real demand side inflation for ages - the salary information shows that people are still no better off than they were in 2008.

So, the current national debts aren't really a problem, especially when you look at who the asset holders are on the other side of the transactions. Also, Japan seems to be the destination for developed countries and their debt to GDP ratio is far higher than ours due to the fact they had to address the issues of an aging population - something we are going to have to deal with in the coming years.
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Help needed
at 11:09 26 May 2020

I use IP Vanish on a few devices and never had a problem. The app is easy to use and it seems to work fine.
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Public service announcement for the Twtd 'new to cycling' massive
at 09:01 12 May 2020

I paid £80 for the fit and then bought some new items - they do use it as opportunity to upsell. My £80 covered position on the bike, saddle fit, cleat positioning etc. There is a more expensive one where they go through everything with you but unless you plan to start doing Crits this seemed a bit excessive.

It was worth it, solved my hand numbness by undoing the tweaks I had made to try and fix it and going in the opposite direction to what I thought - I had been bringing my position in to release pressure from the hands but they angled the hoods down and added a longer stem. Has worked so far.
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Public service announcement for the Twtd 'new to cycling' massive
at 17:26 11 May 2020

Normally you wouldn't much more than a few degrees, too much would suggest a problem elsewhere in your setup.

It might be the stem length forcing you too upright or the wrong width / style of saddle.

Try and experiment as best you can - listen to your body, if you have aches and pains (beyond the normal) don't push on.

When this all settles down it might be worth going for a basic fit with a pro.

Good luck.
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Public service announcement for the Twtd 'new to cycling' massive
at 15:18 11 May 2020

That's next level stuff, although after a long ride you might end up with an odd tasting cocktail.
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Public service announcement for the Twtd 'new to cycling' massive
at 15:02 11 May 2020



This might help.

Remember to try and keep your back straight and pull your elbows into the body - it was described to me by the bike fit pro as squeezing lemons in your arm pits. It helps with position and helps to stop back pain.
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Public service announcement for the Twtd 'new to cycling' massive
at 13:33 11 May 2020

Have a look on Youtube for rudimentary bike fit videos, they will help with initial set up. For saddle height balance next to wall and move one peddle so it is at 6 o'clock. Place your heel on the peddle and if the saddle height is correct your leg should be straight. When you then move to the ball of your foot being on the peddle you should have a slight bend in the knee at the same 6 o'clock position.

It may just be your muscles adapting. I haven't ridden a lot during lock down but have used the cross trainer, it seems to work a completely different set of muscles so when I cycle I can feel the bottom of the thigh is getting a proper work out.

GCN have good bike fit videos on Youtube as do a few others - avoid anything requiring tape measures and calculations, you don't need that - just use the generally accepted principles and tweak from there. I did this and then went for a proper bike fit and I only needed a few tweaks to the rule of thumb position.
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Cycling hive mind required please
at 09:11 30 Apr 2020

It does sound like a set up issue. Slipping gears is a pain but is normally an alignment issue.

The disc breaks do rub especially if there is water or grit in them - I get a 'ting' sound from mine and it drives me mad.

GCN on youtube also do some good maintenance videos so might be worth a look.
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Budgie finances in trouble
at 09:31 29 Apr 2020

No because the VAT bill falls due quarterly for most companies.

The £18m is unlikely to include any PAYE or NI as this is still being paid - cleared in the HMRC by the 22nd of the Month. All VAT bills have been delayed and any VAT arising between March this year and the end of the year will need to be settled by April 20201.

No business will be paying VAT over at the moment, always better to keep it for cash flow and then settle it later. There is no claim mechanism for this, it happens automatically, so no need to do anything other than let the normal payment date pass (7 May).
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"Client Onboarding' - just had an email from someone
at 15:10 21 Apr 2020

When you get a new client.

They sound like a good company to work with, you could definitely leverage your synergies to create win-win situations across the piece.
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The price of oil.....
at 09:50 21 Apr 2020

The Fed are buying junk bonds and that will keep the US shale producers in business. This administration, with its America first message, will not let US shale cease. The US is energy independent and they will want it to stay that way.

This will make it far harder to work through the inventory though, and if the economy doesn't get going soon some of the bigger players could go to the wall.

Also, money for capex will be burnt through to maintain the current position so costly exploration will disappear for the next 5 years or so, so if we do not shift our economies from hydro-carbons we are storing up a shortage and price rises in the longer term.
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TWTD's cycling massive
at 16:25 20 Apr 2020

I know a lot of people like the Brooks saddles but I found them a bit too soft for me. I am currently using a Bontranger with a cut out and it is fine so far. Longer term I intend to try one of the Fizik cut out saddles as they do seem highly regarded.

It is worth getting your sit bones measured when the shops reopen - just sit on a gel pad - to get an idea of the width.
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Had a bit of a depressing realisation last night...
at 16:17 20 Apr 2020

Yes is the answer. The employee or worker should conduct a workplace assessment and then appropriate adaptations made to the working environment. Larger organisations have an online computer program for this but it should be completed annually or after any significant change to the working area.

I think the problem is that many people do not have enough room to dedicate a space to serve as a constant work area so it is difficult to complete these assessments. The number of people I know with dedicated studies is minimal, instead it forms part of the dinning area or the spare room.
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Help with furlough needed
at 12:29 16 Apr 2020

I am just looking at this for our company and found this:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claim-for-wage-costs-through-the-coronavirus-job-ret

Employees whose pay varies
If the employee has been employed for 12 months or more, you can claim the highest of either the:

same month’s earning from the previous year
average monthly earnings for the 2019-2020 tax year
If the employee has been employed for less than 12 months, claim for 80% of their average monthly earnings since they started work until the date they are furloughed.

If they have been employed for less than a month, work out a pro rata for their earnings so far, and claim for 80%.
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