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Reply | Are town well primed for the prem?
at 15:51 12 May 2024
Four Four Two did an excellent video analysis on this recently, concluding there's no single solution to stopping our play. We are irrepressible shapeshifters.
My only prediction is that our summer signings will be in the 8-12 bracket rather than 3-4. We'll be competing against 17+ teams of significantly more quality than this season's Leicester or Leeds, both of which didn't survive with much stronger squads than they've put out in the Championship. We didn't really threaten a win against either, as gallantly as we battled for the Leicester draws.
Likewise, much has rightly been made of how uncompetitive this year's trio have been; it all demonstrates the chasm that has formed between the two leagues since we were last here. Burnley were good enough to hit 101 points and +52 GD in the Championship, losing just 3 games. They then spent £95M on transfer fees, sold none of their talent and have transformed into whipping boys. Opinion may be that their tactics were naively one-dimensional, but 5 wins and 24 points remains rough treatment for a souped-up version of the side that was on easy street in the division below. Luton, for all their praise, concede over 2 goals a game and are likely to finish on 26 points, which may translate to 10 points below where Forest would have finished without their deductions (Burnley v Forest one to keep tabs on next weekend).
I'd love to see the main group be successful again with just a few reinforcements, but the above is why my head tells me to prepare for something closer to a 50-50 fusion, at least for the core 16 or so players who finish with 1,000+ minutes. |
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Reply | John Lundstrum
at 14:05 11 May 2024
Norwich spent £118M overall on wages in their 21/22 PL season, plus a net spend of £22M in transfer fees (£55M spent on arrivals, albeit amortised in their accounts, with Buendia sold for £33M). They were a parachute club with £62M wages in 20/21 though, so building from a higher base than us. |
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Reply | John Lundstrum
at 13:38 11 May 2024
Is there such a thing as a "survival bonus" in the PL? Stay up and we give you a few more coppers. Something which surprised me about the 22/23 season was how even the newly promoted clubs spent their way to a total wage bill exceeding £100M. Brentford were the paupers last year, spending £99M on salaries (and related costs). Perhaps this was an outlier year, given what Forest spent and the other two's recent PL status, or maybe we will come close to this number ourselves. |
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Reply | Biggest myth - norwich have a loyal fanbase
at 18:49 9 May 2024
They've had more promotions and relegations in the past 20 years than they've had normal seasons, which is as extreme as our situation was but for the reverse reason.
As such it's difficult to know what a decade or two of treading water in the 2nd/3rd tier would do to their numbers, if they'd return to 90s levels of somewhere in-between, but I for one am game to find out. Hopefully two-thirds of the way through their spell they uncover a student of McCarthy ball. |
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Reply | weird story: pedestrian jailed for causing death of a cyclist
at 18:05 8 May 2024
Cheers for the local knowledge. In the CCTV footage it appeared wide enough, but the camera crew with the man bombing past definitely gave a tighter feel. If the normal or appropriate approach is to dismount, it would need to have happened before the confrontation began really (quite a threatening picture to stop at once the woman got going, given the profile of the cyclist). I don't believe failure to adhere to common or respectful practice may excuse the defendant's decisions, when returning to the case itself. |
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Reply | weird story: pedestrian jailed for causing death of a cyclist
at 17:13 8 May 2024
"How does the judge *know* its a shared path, when the council can't say for certain? How does the judge *know* what the pedestrian knows and where's the allowance for the learning disability for that matter?"
The judge is sufficiently satisfied to have made these assertions, so one would hope both are beyond reasonable doubt. It shouldn't be difficult to establish her familiarity with the path, nor its typical usage. Is it rather assumption on your part that the judge has speculated here, or are you very familiar with the case? Without knowing so, my hunch would be that this path forms part of her regular shopping route.
Having viewed the footage, I'm not surprised by the eye-witness account. It's difficult to establish if contact is made because that part of the encounter is just out of shot, but I don't think contact is required for the cyclist to have recoiled and lost balance. All very sad, and her subsequent actions won't have helped her. |
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Reply | I'd be against loaning Omari again ...
at 15:11 8 May 2024
I don't see any prospect of him signing permanently this summer tbh. He's publicly stated he wants to be the best player in the world, which is ambitious lol but I applaud him for it. If he agrees / pushes to close the Chelsea chapter earlier than needed, I only see him moving to a club that's in the European mix from the outset. Otherwise he surely keeps the elite door open for another season of improvement, hopefully.
I'd love him to return to us on loan though and have hope that could happen, even if it's probably reliant on a pathway not opening up at a higher level, with Chelsea or an overseas club in European competition. If his agent doesn't find this alternative, I'm sure he'd be very happy to join up with us again and I think we'd struggle to find two better loan options; he's improving all the time. |
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Reply | Benchmarking against Burnley summer transfer action
at 21:56 7 May 2024
Luton spent a little more than that last summer, which was the lowest spend for a newly promoted club in quite some time I think, while Burnley spent one of the highest ever amounts in £95M. My guess is we'll be somewhere in the middle. |
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Reply | What is the most salubrious street in Ipswich? (n/t)
at 21:46 7 May 2024
Unless you live near the top and have a weak heart.
Paget Road is very posh apart from the road itself, which is quite bumpy. Hope this isn't a stalker alert OP lol (leave the man in peace). |
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Reply | Financial sustainability rules
at 18:11 7 May 2024
Yeah spot on. We need to be responsible with this accounting technique mind, in the event next season misses the mark. |
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Reply | Financial sustainability rules
at 17:57 7 May 2024
Will be interesting to see if these financial rules and penalties continue into 24/25 (I'm not confident they will, to be discussed in the Prem's June meetings). If they do survive, £150M+ PSR headroom sounds right for max available spend, but we'd need to be cute with our exit strategy should things not go well aha.
To USA's question, this from a law firm's analysis of the Everton decision:
"The Commission rejected an argument put forward by the Premier League that a formulaic approach to sanction should be taken. The Premier League had argued that the appropriate penalty should always be a points deduction, with a fixed starting position of 6 points, and a further increase of one point for every £5m by which the club exceeded the £105m PSR threshold.
However, it’s also worth noting that the Commission left the door open for a new independent regulator to take such an approach. It also noted that the Premier League could amend its own rules (to impose a mandatory structured formula) if it wanted to."
https://burlingtonslegal.com/insight/everton-fc-10-point-deduction-an-analysis-o |
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Reply | Financial sustainability rules
at 16:40 7 May 2024
Revenue is somewhat at the mercy of league finish. Looking at last season's relegated sides, turnovers were £145M (Saints), £190M (Leeds) and £177M (Foxes). Southampton's broadcasting revenue was £108M, while attendance average was 30.5K.
It's how Leicester got into so much hot water, pegging their spending to an ambitious league finish (and subsequent financial reward). Crystal Palace received £141M broadcasting revenue for finishing 11th (£180M turnover overall).
If we are to be sensible, we should probably use the £108M TV figure for calculating our maximum spend. £108M + our own revenue streams + PSR/FFP headroom (providing the current scheme survives the summer!). |
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Reply | Speaking with RKD about Huddersfield tickets. How many do you think we could
at 14:43 7 May 2024
I was asked if I could help with tickets by family who have never been to football before. Would it be fair to say the average fan knew more people who were "stuck outside" the stadium than in it? Even 60K feels conservative to me, but then my personal experience may be atypical. |
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Reply | Why is Fabio Wardley on the bus ffs (n/t)
at 14:23 7 May 2024
I agree with you it's a little unedifying - hadn't appreciated he was front and centre in the team photo on Saturday too, as I was on the Cobbold side at the time. Yet it's still true he joined the journey when we were a well-backed, unsuccessful L1 outfit, if not before. Our rise has been meteoric and I doubt Wardley predicted this (Championship in 1-2 years sure, but not this).
If it's all insincere then that's a shame, but I don't believe he'd be afforded the access he has if the players and staff took exception to it. They appear to all get on well. Has he pinched some of our attention across the celebrations? Evidently some people's, but I doubt most had their attention or joy impacted by even a negligible amount tbh. |
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Reply | Arsenal Rumours
at 13:50 7 May 2024
Forest will have lost significantly more than us in the relevant years before PL footy: £62M IIRC in their last two Championship seasons (before permissible deductions). Not that I support their model, though, as essentially it was a big or bust, rule-breaking approach which banked on the league's sanctions being toothless. It's worked out for them, just, but was close to going very wrong. |
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Reply | Hello Ipswich fans
at 22:24 6 May 2024
Will be very interesting to see. Transfer fees paid by newly promoted clubs in the past three years (both windows):
Luton €28M, Brentford €38M, Watford €44M, Norwich €64M, Sheff Utd €67M, Fulham €72M, Bournemouth €83M, Burnley €111M, and Forest €195M.
A lot of variation there and failure + success at each spending level.
(Transfermarkt reported figures) |
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Reply | Don Goodman comment/Leeds chant
at 20:11 6 May 2024
"Leeds' collapse allowed Ipswich to claim second spot behind Leicester, though promotion wasn't officially sealed until the final day."
Not how I'd frame it, but possibly the narrative we've advanced today in fairness! |
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Reply | Slightly surprising stats from this season
at 18:18 6 May 2024
That's a great one! For all the talk around our defensive frailties, the away setup saw us concede less than Leeds and 21 others. 15 clean sheets in total this season, only bettered by Leeds and West Brom. Our goals-conceded column is high for promoted teams on account of our home record, but it's also at home where we've enjoyed the greatest margin over teams (+27 GD at home, only bettered but L&L).
So did the attack really outperform the defence this season, or rather were setup choices the decisive factor? I'm plumping for setup choices. |
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