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Two reasons to remain calm.
at 22:21 12 Apr 2024

1) Leicester stay in control of the title and remind me of us in our middle period last season. Daka's chances tonight and Vardy's against Bristol City were as good or better than those we've created in the same time period. It's when you stop creating sitters that you really need to worry, as a similar saying goes. They've lost some belief and all their fear factor, however, which is superb so late in the season.

2) We know what happened against Watford, when we were significantly more fancied to win than we are tomorrow (by the outside world at least, if not Town fans). Boro are in good form, have beaten the top sides and were pre-season favourites bar the big 3.

No downplaying how massive tomorrow could be for us, but it would be a mistake to arrive at the ground expectantly. Bold performance needed off the pitch too (sad to be missing it)!
Champ Team of the Year
at 16:23 12 Apr 2024

Hladky is being edged out by John Ruddy of all people(!!), if I'm right in believing Sky outsources this to Our man is 0.02 rating points behind.

Funnily, big man Moore would be our #1 in the team, if it wasn't for the rule on minimum appearances. He is rated 7th in the league, with 1st-3rd filled by PL players who made one Championship appearance before their transfers. He's head & shoulders above Armstrong and 0.22 rating points above Sargent (who also currently misses out due to lack of games). He's even 0.01 points above Leicester's stately home!

Leif is a shoo-in for LB and the others have too much to do now, with Sam and Burge our nearly men.
[Post edited 12 Apr 16:25]
Not a lot wrong with Leicester is there?
at 14:08 1 Apr 2024

Hunger ✓
Quality ✓
Worse opposition to come ✓

Nobody's rolling over that's for sure!
22/23 accounts, including L1/CH clubs
at 16:43 23 Mar 2024

First and foremost, P&S loss:
21/22 £6.3M
22/23 £12.4M
No cause for celebration but thankfully below the £13M "annual loss limit", which in practice becomes £39M over 3 seasons (rolling). The full P&S loss "allowance" for 23/24 is therefore £20.3M, although anything above £13M would reduce permitted losses in future Championship seasons, should we remain here.

Comparison with L1 rivals, 22/23 accounts:
Club: Turnover / Wages
Ipswich: £21.8M / £19.8M*
Derby: £20.4M / £15.3M
Wednesday: £19.3M / £14.0M*
Plymouth: £14.7M / £9.1M*
Barnsley: £9.3M / £8.3M
(Bolton, Peterborough and Portsmouth not yet available)

Championship clubs, 22/23 accounts:
Club: Turnover / Wages
Norwich: £75.6M / £56.4M
Watford: £66.2M / £48.7M
Sheff Utd: £64.3M / £48.6M*
Bristol: £36.6M / £36.0M
Stoke: £31.2M / £30.1M
M'boro: £28.6M / £29.6M
QPR: £23.3M / £25.4M
Ipswich: £21.8M / £19.8M
Coventry: £20.4M / £18.5M
Luton: £18.4M / £27.6M*
Hull: £18.1M / £23.7M
Preston: £15.6M / £21.6M
Wigan: £15.9M / £23.2M
Rotherham: £15.7M / £10.3M
(Others not yet available)

Broadcasting revenue, selected clubs, 22/23:
Norwich £48.6M (Sky 15 times)
Watford £48.3M (Sky 12 times)
Luton £10.1M (Sky 10 times + PO F)
Middlesbrough £9.8M (Sky 12 times + PO SF)
Bristol City £8.9M (Sky 4 times)
Ipswich £3.9M
The importance of parachute payments. Note that TV selection amounts to a useful but small proportion of overall broadcasting income, with most of it shared equally among clubs. We may expect to earn £6.0-7.5M more this season.

Commercial revenue, selected clubs, 22/23:
Bristol City £21.4M
Norwich £17.0M
Stoke £16.9M
Luton £10.1M
Middlesbrough £10.0M
QPR £8.7M
Ipswich £5.4M
Coventry £4.2M
Hull £3.9M
Preston £3.0M
This is where some clubs do so much better than others.

Gate receipts, selected clubs, 22/23:
Norwich £10.0M (26.5K)
Middlesbrough £8.8M (26.0K)
Ipswich £8.0M (26.2K)
Coventry £7.1M (20.0K)
Stoke £5.1M (20.6K)
Preston £3.9M (15.9K)
We currently average 28.8K and prices have increased, in addition to membership sales.

*Promotion bonuses likely included in wage bills.

[Post edited 23 Mar 16:53]
Ooh no. 16
at 17:46 29 Jan 2024

No. 9 still up for grabs 🥕

Unless we're respectfully leaving it vacant what with Freddie's loan and George's roboleg?
Prediction Logged by at 18:03:48
Leicester City v Ipswich Town prediction logged
Goals scored without Hirst this season..
at 16:01 12 Jan 2024

3 against Leeds (loss - good performance)
3 against Cardiff (from loss to win)
2 against Birmingham (from loss to draw)
1 against Wednesday (win)
1 against Huddersfield (from loss to draw)
1 against Stoke (kept win)
1 against Blackburn (from draw to win)
1 against Watford (from draw to win)
1 against Rotherham (kept draw)
1 against Plymouth (kept win)
1 against Preston (kept win)
1 against Leicester (from loss to draw)
(3 against Wolves (great win))

Sorry for the lack of order and if I've forgotten any, but that's a decent amount of goals considering Hirst has played two-thirds of league minutes this season (1624 minutes ÷ 26 games = 62 minutes per game, averaged out).

In fact, if we overlook Hirst's contribution in tiring out opposition defences and probably skirt around stoppage time, we've scored marginally more goals with him off the pitch than on it (31 goals in Hirst's 62 minutes, 17 goals in the remaining 28 minutes + stoppage time).

We're desperate for strikers and this is far from an "everything is fine" post, but it's worth us remembering the above in light of McKenna's request that we back the strikers we have. I'm confident we're capable of scoring a couple against Sunderland, providing we don't try to turn a home game into an away one with the atmosphere we create. I was going to add this to MaySixth's thread but it became quite long.
[Post edited 12 Jan 16:37]
Kieran McKenna vs 20th century Ipswich Town vs Bruce Forsyth
at 16:17 24 Nov 2023

#WBA edition (come on Ipswich!).

Good old Kieran has enjoyed quite the run of late. In his last 25 league matches he has racked up 62 points the greedy guts (W 19, D 5, L 1).

Has he done enough to earn more points than Ipswich managed against West Brom in their last 25 encounters of the 20th century, however? Higher or lower TWTDers?

He has! The record is identical (W 19, D 5, L 1) but one of Ipswich's 19 victories came in the Simod cup and there were no points in that game (unlucky Brucey).

Our 26th game of the West Brom sequence, on 04/04/2000? A 1-1 draw at the Hawthorns.*

*Full disclosure, this draw actually replaced the loss at the beginning of the previous 25 match cycle, so once upon a time we were unbeaten against West Brom across 25 matches. Is this the longest unbeaten run Ipswich has ever enjoyed against any team? Is it the longest unbeaten run by one professional English club against another ever?
[Post edited 24 Nov 2023 16:18]
Championship player ratings: where is your favourite?
at 17:10 6 Nov 2023

FotMob give a rating to all players in the Championship who have played in at least 50% of games, 387 of them currently (roughly 16 players per club). Ratings are calculated based on more than 300 individual stats per player per match from Opta, so they're objective, even if one disagrees with the weighting of certain stats. Ratings and rankings so far:

1. Davis, 7.61, 7th. MOTM: 2
2. Morsy, 7.48, 17th. MOTM: 2
3. Chaplin, 7.46, 21st. MOTM: 1
4. Broadhead, 7.46, 22nd. MOTM: 3
5. Hladky, 7.31, 39th (1st GK). MOTM: 1
6. Burns, 7.29, 43rd
7. Luongo, 7.23, 66th
8. Woolfenden, 7.22, 68th
9. Williams, 7.20, 70th. MOTM: 1
10. Burgess, 7.09, 102nd
11. Hirst, 7.04, 124th
12. Clarke, 6.90, 123rd
13. Harness, 6.75, 254th. MOTM: 1
14. Jackson, 6.72, 263rd. MOTM: 1
15. Hutchinson, 6.70, 268th
16. Taylor, 6.51, 327th
17. Ladapo, 6.51, 328th. MOTM: 1

From Harness down we may be seeing evidence that minutes on the pitch are factored into scores. Notice Harry Clarke is in the top half of Championship performers this season. Players below him include Jobe Bellingham, Siriki Dembele and Liam Delap. First choice RBs below him include Milan van Ewijk, Ryan Stacey and Kaine Kesler-Hayden.

Finally, two near the top & two near the bottom:
1. Jaden Philogene, 7.64, 5th
2. Morgan Whittaker, 7.59, 10th
3. Sinclair Armstrong, 6.36, 363rd
4. Ellis Simms, 6.29, 375th
Rotherham rearranged!!!
at 14:14 23 Oct 2023

Tuesday 7th November @ 8PM brilliant 🥴
[Post edited 23 Oct 2023 14:17]
Bristol City TICKETS
at 21:56 17 Oct 2023

911 more being made available
Sky's team & manager of the season so far:
at 01:08 17 Oct 2023
Team to play Rotherham?
at 12:18 16 Oct 2023

Williams Woolfenden Edmundson Davis
Hutchinson Morsy Taylor Harness

Thinking: Wes injured. Oz play NZ on Tuesday eve so poss too soon for Burgess and Luongo. Rotherham likely to play deep and Freddie is our 'fox in the box'. Broady's had less time off than others.

Not for me but will McKenna be tempted to reintroduce Walton, given Rotherham don't really press in the attacking third? They create so little and are averaging 35% possession, but have managed four positive results because they're the most clinical team in the top four divisions. 10 goals from 19 shots on target is mad! We would be on 39 goals already with that strike rate.
The Preston challenge
at 17:59 6 Oct 2023

You could be forgiven for scratching your head over Preston's current position in the table. In opponents' penalty areas they have managed just ten more touches this season than Sheffield Wednesday. Is that the most damning statistic in English football today? In almost every measurement with the ball at their feet they are bottom half, more often bottom six, and most often bottom three. Where Huddersfield leap up the table in crosses into the box and Millwall rise in shot creation, Preston remain unapologetically steadfast in their bottom-third obscurity. It would be remiss of me not to mention they are joint third in goals scored per shot, but when the gap between third and twelfth is 0.02 goals per shot and when Preston have mustered 48 fewer shots than the twelfth highest shooters in the division, the end result for the onion bag is actually an easier life than average. Their shooting is dangerous but seldom seen.

Of course these numbers must be counteracted somewhere for Preston to have even survived, let alone thrived, and defensively Preston do that everywhere: top three for tackles, interceptions, blocks, clearances, aerial duels and beyond. They have afforded the fifth lowest shots on target this season, despite giving up the fifth most possession. And this competitive energy is found in all thirds of the pitch, while the sight of Preston launching 94% of goal kicks tomorrow may feel quite jarring given the differing style of recent visitors to Portman Road. If we can look near our attractive best in the face of this defensive onslaught then it will be our most impressive performance to date.

at 20:40 3 Oct 2023

That was something else!
Huddersfield deserve more!
at 15:53 30 Sep 2023

We're not counteracting the press very well today. Big shout to Hirst for his hold-up play.

Thomas rag-dolling Hutchinson was nuts though whether our man dived or not!
Hladky: top of the table
at 13:43 20 Sep 2023

This is a celebration post, rather than a #1 argument. My confidence in Hladky is through the roof presently but I acknowledge the sample size remains small. In fact, I've been so blown away that I wanted to delve into the data. Fbref is a great website for this and below are a few stats, including comparisons, to give the fan club confidence they can trust their eyes.

Quick word on expected goals first: I don't believe it is perfect, but recruitment and management do utilize this data at the highest level. It identifies outliers who are either a) luckier than their peers, or b) outperforming their peers (and of course those who are underperforming or less lucky); players and teams that are worth reviewing with your own eyes. Now, stats.

1) Post-shot expected goals = the number of goals a goalkeeper is expected to have conceded, based on how likely the goalkeeper was to save the shot. Ipswich's = 10.5, while we have in fact conceded 7. We are +3.5 so far in post-shot expected goals against, which translates to half a goal every game being saved above expectation. The next closest to us so far are Huddersfield: +2.3. 12th = -0.2 Bristol City, 24th = -4.3 Southampton. This stat speaks for itself and he's at the top.

2) OPA = defensive actions outside the penalty area by the goalkeeper. Simply put, how many occasions the goalkeeper has swept up situations outside his own box. Ipswich's = 24. The next closest to us are Blackburn, who are on 21. 12th = 9 Plymouth, 24th = 2 Sunderland. Unlike in expected goals where Hladky is comfortably in front, per 90 minutes Ipswich are 2nd in this area (behind Blackburn who have played a game less). This stat requires a little nuance: evidently Sunderland do not use a 'sweeper keeper' and tactics will inform the positions of some teams. What we can say is, of the teams who ask this of their goalkeepers, Hladky is currently performing at or near the top. There isn't available data on goalkeeper mistakes from these situations but I cannot remember Hladky making one (despite his high number of involvements).

3) Launched Cmp = successful passes by the goalkeeper that were over 40 yards in distance. Ipswich are 14th for number of launched balls by the goalkeeper so far, having kicked 'long' 80 times. Ipswich's completion rate (success rate) is 36.3%, 4th best in the division. 1st = 43.5% Sheffield Wednesday, 12th = 29.0% Coventry, 24th = 17.8% Plymouth. Again, a little nuance needed. The tactical choice to kick long all the time should negatively affect a goalkeepers' stats, after all, as will some goalkeepers feel that a higher number of their 'launched passes' should more accurately be described as desperate clearances. We are 15th for goalkeeper average pass distance, in addition to being 14th for quantity of launched balls: I do not believe McKenna's tactics or opposition pressure give Hladky a substantial advantage or disadvantage compared to average here. He's performing near the top with his feet as well. Data is not available for short or medium pass completion rate.

4) Cross Stp% = the percentage of crosses into the penalty area which were successfully stopped by the goalkeeper. 1st = 10.0% Rotherham, 11th = 6.9% Ipswich, 24th = 3.1% Leicester. A lot of caveats to consider here, from tactics to performance of other players. There is no available data on goalkeeper mistakes from attempting to stop crosses. I've included this for completeness, really, but will say it supports what I've seen: Hladky hasn't played superman or hidden from swung-in balls.

Well done that man! In case anyone is interested, available goalkeeper stats for League One are much less detailed.
Well done Kieran!
at 21:03 19 Sep 2023

Right to make that substitution early.
Wednesday tickets
at 11:44 14 Sep 2023

A few left on the website for anyone that thought they'd missed their chance. Includes two lots of four together and one three in-a-row. Price remains disgraceful of course.
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