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Your help needed
at 12:30 7 May 2023

I’ve spent the last short while making a spreadsheet to predict the results of football matches. I’ll let you guess why.

It’s reasonably successful — it’s quite good at predicting value bets. I tend to stake £12 each weekend and am £100 up roughly every six months. I’ll take that. (If you had guessed betting, you would be correct.)

It conducts four tests on the upcoming fixtures based on this season’s scores so far. For each match it looks at:

1. Goals scored vs goals conceded for both teams
Calculates how many goals the home team has scored in the last five matches vs the league average for that period, and how many the away team has conceded vs the average. If the home team is better by a buffer of 1 then home win predicted. The same in reverse for the away team but with a 1.2 buffer (as it’s harder to win away).

2. Points per game last 30 days
How many points the home and away team are averaging per match in the last month. If one team is outperforming the other by a buffer of 1 or 1.2 then recommend that win.

3. Form score (who they actually earned their points against)
Works out how many points a team has earned were actually ‘worth’ based on their opponents PPG for the previous 30 days. The points earned are multiplied against the other team’s PPG. For example, if Manchester City earned three points against Fulham who were averaging 1.5 PPG until that point then Manchester City’s form score for that game is 4.5 (3 points earned X Fulham’s 1.5 PPG). However, if Fulham had won and Manchester City had an average PPG of 3 until that point then Fulham’s Form Score would be 9 (3 points earned X City’s 3 PPG) for that game.

For an upcoming fixture, an average is taken of each team’s Form Score for the last 5 games to work out how well they’re doing. If they’re winning, and if they’re winning against decent teams. The two averaged Form Scores are compared and a result recommended if a buffer is exceeded.

4. Performance against percentile
Last year’s league table is split into five percentiles (0-20%, 20-40%, etc). Works out how many PPG a team earned last year against the teams in the same league percentile as an opponent. For example, if Aston Villa inexplicably dropped lots of points against teams in the relegation zone last season but seemed to get results against teams in the second top percentile, and they are up against a team who finished in the two top percentile, the spreadsheet will flag it.

It usually says a team that finished well last season will beat a team that didn’t, but it also picks up on those anomalies where a team seemed to sneak something against the top teams and comes unstuck against the bottom teams. Perhaps because they are a defensive minded team that does well when it shuts up shop against a decent team but comes unstuck when it tries to play attacking football against a team it thought it would beat.

*

So that’s the spreadsheet.

My question to you is:
What are the other tests I can include?

What are the other situations that cause you to think a team is likely to beat another one? It doesn’t have to be a fully constructed test, I’m happy to waste hours of my life trying to figure that out. Instead, I’m keen to find out what you think are those obvious indicators that a team is going to win, based on past performance.

The spreadsheet isn’t perfect. It’s really good at predicting teams who should win and what would happen if everything goes according to plan, but rarely happens. It gets completely caught out by the freak results, or just the slightly unexpected results.

A couple of tests I’m thinking of adding are:

5. Comparing previous predictions
Some kind of rolling score looking at the prediction of the spreadsheet vs the actual outcome. An average of how many times the prediction was correct can be used to determine its accuracy.

The accuracy of all four (or more) tests can be used to give a weighting as to how much consideration I should take into account for all outcomes.

For example, the four test is probably the least accurate as it relies on last year’s table. Teams change year on year. Players change, managers change. So, it’s a useful test but only to a point.

6. Combine the weighting of each test into a score and compare against odds
If test 1 is correct 80% of the time and test two is correct 20% of the time, and test 1 is predicting a win, then it’s 80% likely. That’s 1/4 on, or 1.25 as a decimal. If the odds are significantly longer than that then it’s worth investigating further.

Please let me know any tests you reckon should be done, or you do in your mind before a game, based on past results only (not ‘new manager bounce’ unfortunately) that I should consider doing.

In answer to your next question: Reasonably fun at parties, but admittedly not always.

876 words including this sentence, if you’re wondering.
[Post edited 7 May 2023 14:36]
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Can’t sleep
at 05:43 29 Apr 2023

Today’s going to be extremely enjoyable in a not-very-enjoyable-at-all way
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Any clue who the commentators are cheering for?
at 20:06 25 Apr 2023

iFollow are saving costs using local commentators, more power to them, would be nice if they didn't refer to "us" and the co-commentator doesn't sigh when they miss a chance though
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Co-comms on Radio Suffolk reckons we’re going to win the league
at 17:01 1 Apr 2023

That would be nice
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That Barnsley result looks ominous
at 22:02 21 Mar 2023

They’ve put four past Wednesday, I’m glad we’re now playing them later in the season
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Robyn Cowen
at 09:57 11 Mar 2023

I’m equal parts delighted and relieved that she was one of the commentators who decided not to commentate on MOTD this evening, I’d be distraught if she was cancelled:

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Dean Bowditch is 36 years old
at 17:30 1 Mar 2023

37 in June. Life comes at you fast.
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As sure as night follows day…
at 20:51 18 Feb 2023

…regardless of how good our performance is, the people sat behind you in the Cobbold will be moaning. You could be sat anywhere and it will never be the people in front of you.

1-0 up after ten minutes, 2-0 before half time, 4-0 winners, clean sheet, 24 shots against 3. Over the course of the match I counted eight of the starting eleven who are deemed to have “gone off the boil” with mutterings about the manager before kick off.

Great performance admittedly against limited opposition, but you can only beat who is in front of you and we emphatically did. Wide players didn’t quite have the delivery but were in great positions to receive the pass. Another day and those two shots that hit the post would have made it 6-0 (vidiprinter: SIX). Our squad depth meant none of the subs were a noticeable dip in quality.

A great boost ahead of a run of must-win winnable games.
[Post edited 18 Feb 2023 20:56]
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Emir of Qatar interested in buying Manchester United for £4.5bn
at 15:00 8 Feb 2023

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/08/emir-of-qatar-interested-in-buy

The emir purchased PSG in 2011 through Qatar Sports Investment. Current Uefa rules do not allow clubs with the same owners to face each other in one of its competitions, so a Qatar-owned United and Qatar-owned PSG would not be allowed to compete in a Champions League tie should such a fixture arise.

While the purchase of United is being explored, it is understood those driving the Qatar interest are conscious of the Uefa rules and a solution is being sought. This could include trying to persuade Uefa to consider the possibility of adjusting or changing its regulations.

If these rules were to change then eventually clubs would be concentrated under a few owners. They could be nation-states, billionaire's playthings, investment funds or commercial enterprises, but eventually most major clubs would converge in one of a few groups.

For example, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, AC Milan and Barcelona would be 'Petro Corp' clubs, all owned by the same profit generating energy company that could benefit from a better reputation. Whereas Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal, Juventus and Atletico Madrid would be Soccer Capital clubs, a fund enjoying healthy dividends. Schalke 04, Tottenham, Inter Milan and Real Madrid would be part of the Persia Sports Group.

A few dominant owners would emerge and the major clubs in Europe would converge under them.

We could then see players rotated within these groups, in a similar way to Watford/Granada/Udinese. Raheem Sterling would be loaned out to Bayern Munich or Barcelona each season, the Chelsea reserves would be blooded at AC Milan if their squad needs a boost. It would be a huge event if players switch from Petro Corp to Soccer Capital.

Manchester City players have moved within the City Group, although these clubs often don't come into contact with each other.

Currently we only have 'feeder club' agreements, so this excludes when teams play each other. This would change. The stated rules are UEFA so I'm not sure on Premier League's rules, but you could have Man City, Tottenham and Brighton under one owners, and Liverpool, Arsenal and Brentford under another. There's an obvious question about whether healthy competition would remain. The narrative wouldn't be if Arsenal win the league but if a Petro Corp team wins the league.

I wish I'd chosen better names for my owners but I'm this far into the analogy so I guess I'm committed now.

I'm picking up big ESL vibes from this - the wealth concentrated in a small, closed group.
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Who was the last great striker we had?
at 22:13 16 Nov 2022

Daryl Murphy?

Marcus Stewart?

…Alex Mathie (thanks for the post)?

……Paul Mariner?
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Maldon & Tiptree vs Heybridge Swifts
at 18:39 3 Sep 2022

I went to the big local derby on bank holiday Monday. Heybridge are near the top of the league, Maldon (formerly managed by Wayne Brown) have had a terrible start to the season and need to get their act together to stay in the league. A reversal of previous years.

Heybridge ended 2-1 winners with a first half nerve settler, a 93rd minute supposed clincher and a 95th minute sloppy 'oh sht we might draw this' header conceded from a corner, then a panicked last two minutes of an extended injury time. The Leyton Orient loanee, Harrison Sodje, played well for Swifts at left back.

Hopefully The Jammers stay in the league, I wouldn’t want to see the derby disappear.

Don't forget to pay your local non-league team a visit if you can't get to an ITFC game!

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…or is it Kieron Dyer’s job to lose?
at 12:01 6 Dec 2021

The speculation here is that it’s McGreal’s job to lose. I suspect McGreal won’t get it full time. It’s not an overwhelming appointment following an unremarkable time in League Two but a solid interim to see us through the short term.

Interim managers only get the job if they go on a great run as interim so the club can’t not hire him, and that momentum seems to fall away after the appointment is made permanent. See Ole GS.

Dyer is now part of the managerial team.

This would be good experience for Dyer, another step up the ladder and greater involvement/exposure in running first team games. Hiring Dyer as the replacement for Cook would probably be too soon, but his promotion is partially going under the radar.

Owners like stability/continuity behind the scenes when managers change to minimise disruption. Someone who ‘gets the club’. With the correct tutelage under the next manager then Dyer is taking another step towards the first team.

We may be looking for our next manager, but we may have already hired the manager that follows them?
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Brett Johnson announcement on LinkedIn
at 11:51 3 Dec 2021

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/brett-m-johnson-70b148_tim-riester-appointed-as-n

It's been my greatest professional honor to be a Founder, Co-Chairman and Alternate Governor of Phoenix Rising Football Club. I could not be more excited to pass the baton to Tim Riester, as I now shift my attention to the launch of professional soccer in Rhode Island through Fortuitous Partners at Tidewater Landing. It's never been a more compelling time to be involved with professional soccer and I'm thrilled for whatever I'm able to contribute to United Soccer League (USL), as it transforms communities throughout the United States.

It looks like Brett is stepping back from the more established Phoenix Rising and taking a bigger role at the smaller Rhode Island club, but I'm not sure if that means he's switching companies (i.e. leaving the fund he works for who now own ITFC). I suspect not.

Either way, it looks like Brett now has to grow two football clubs! Rhode Island and...
[Post edited 3 Dec 2021 12:01]
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News archive
at 11:22 21 Jul 2021

Morning - does anyone have a link for the news archive?

I'm trying to find the story from April/May to prove to someone that yes, Paul Cook really did put the entire team on the transfer list.

Cheers!
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