 | Forum
Reply | Your help needed
at 14:08 12 May 2023
Thank you!
You're right the next step is trying to incorporate the odds and weighing my predictions against the market to see if something is undervalued. This way I have to be wrong less times, as when I'm correct I'll win bigger. Betfair seem to have downloadable odds data to input into spreadsheets, correct to the minute.
The other - lazy, sorry - caveat I have is I'm trying to cut down on my copy/paste admin. There are some websites out there that give away spreadsheets of the most recent results each week, meaning I don't have to type out every team name and input every result. I just copy/paste the results in. If I'm to delve into player or in-game stats I'd need to find a similar spreadsheet that someone else has put together, so I can just paste the stats in, rather than type them out for the 92 English teams and 42 Scottish teams. Life is for living. |
| Forum
Reply | Was Brexit worth it?
at 11:54 9 May 2023
The scene: A Greene King owned pub, somewhere in rural Suffolk, the evening of Bank Holiday Monday 8th May 2023. Two men sit haunched over a small round table in the middle of the dimly lit pub. Discarded peanut bags have been folded and propped into empty pint glasses, awaiting collection. The pub has slowly emptied and the bar staff are idly polishing glasses behind the bar.
1. No one has ever posted a thread with a billion angry replies on TWTD, it's just not possible.
2. That's because no one has found the perfect topic yet.
1. A billion?! No chance. There is no perfect topic, it doesn't exist. You're asking for a topic that everyone has an opinion on, makes everyone all types of furious, and everyone will be drawn into the argument no matter how ridiculous. That's too much. There can't possibly be a topic like that.
2. Of course there is.
1. Well there certainly isn't on Monday night, you'd need to post it just before the lunch hour on the first working day of the week, when everyone is suitably bored and looking for a distraction.
2. Trust me. I've got this one. |
| Forum
Reply | Your help needed
at 11:12 9 May 2023
Sounds good - as in working out how well a team is currently doing home or away? |
| Forum
Thread | Your help needed
at 12:30 7 May 2023
I’ve spent the last short while making a spreadsheet to predict the results of football matches. I’ll let you guess why.
It’s reasonably successful — it’s quite good at predicting value bets. I tend to stake £12 each weekend and am £100 up roughly every six months. I’ll take that. (If you had guessed betting, you would be correct.)
It conducts four tests on the upcoming fixtures based on this season’s scores so far. For each match it looks at:
1. Goals scored vs goals conceded for both teams
Calculates how many goals the home team has scored in the last five matches vs the league average for that period, and how many the away team has conceded vs the average. If the home team is better by a buffer of 1 then home win predicted. The same in reverse for the away team but with a 1.2 buffer (as it’s harder to win away).
2. Points per game last 30 days
How many points the home and away team are averaging per match in the last month. If one team is outperforming the other by a buffer of 1 or 1.2 then recommend that win.
3. Form score (who they actually earned their points against)
Works out how many points a team has earned were actually ‘worth’ based on their opponents PPG for the previous 30 days. The points earned are multiplied against the other team’s PPG. For example, if Manchester City earned three points against Fulham who were averaging 1.5 PPG until that point then Manchester City’s form score for that game is 4.5 (3 points earned X Fulham’s 1.5 PPG). However, if Fulham had won and Manchester City had an average PPG of 3 until that point then Fulham’s Form Score would be 9 (3 points earned X City’s 3 PPG) for that game.
For an upcoming fixture, an average is taken of each team’s Form Score for the last 5 games to work out how well they’re doing. If they’re winning, and if they’re winning against decent teams. The two averaged Form Scores are compared and a result recommended if a buffer is exceeded.
4. Performance against percentile
Last year’s league table is split into five percentiles (0-20%, 20-40%, etc). Works out how many PPG a team earned last year against the teams in the same league percentile as an opponent. For example, if Aston Villa inexplicably dropped lots of points against teams in the relegation zone last season but seemed to get results against teams in the second top percentile, and they are up against a team who finished in the two top percentile, the spreadsheet will flag it.
It usually says a team that finished well last season will beat a team that didn’t, but it also picks up on those anomalies where a team seemed to sneak something against the top teams and comes unstuck against the bottom teams. Perhaps because they are a defensive minded team that does well when it shuts up shop against a decent team but comes unstuck when it tries to play attacking football against a team it thought it would beat.
*
So that’s the spreadsheet.
My question to you is:
What are the other tests I can include?
What are the other situations that cause you to think a team is likely to beat another one? It doesn’t have to be a fully constructed test, I’m happy to waste hours of my life trying to figure that out. Instead, I’m keen to find out what you think are those obvious indicators that a team is going to win, based on past performance.
The spreadsheet isn’t perfect. It’s really good at predicting teams who should win and what would happen if everything goes according to plan, but rarely happens. It gets completely caught out by the freak results, or just the slightly unexpected results.
A couple of tests I’m thinking of adding are:
5. Comparing previous predictions
Some kind of rolling score looking at the prediction of the spreadsheet vs the actual outcome. An average of how many times the prediction was correct can be used to determine its accuracy.
The accuracy of all four (or more) tests can be used to give a weighting as to how much consideration I should take into account for all outcomes.
For example, the four test is probably the least accurate as it relies on last year’s table. Teams change year on year. Players change, managers change. So, it’s a useful test but only to a point.
6. Combine the weighting of each test into a score and compare against odds
If test 1 is correct 80% of the time and test two is correct 20% of the time, and test 1 is predicting a win, then it’s 80% likely. That’s 1/4 on, or 1.25 as a decimal. If the odds are significantly longer than that then it’s worth investigating further.
Please let me know any tests you reckon should be done, or you do in your mind before a game, based on past results only (not ‘new manager bounce’ unfortunately) that I should consider doing.
In answer to your next question: Reasonably fun at parties, but admittedly not always.
876 words including this sentence, if you’re wondering. [Post edited 7 May 2023 14:36]
|
| Forum
Reply | I’m doing a beer and a fag per goal
at 16:31 29 Apr 2023
I’m at a brewery, I’ve already informed my friends (who I have made wear Ipswich shirts) that in 15 minutes in going to pss and sht myself at the same time |
| Forum
Thread | Can’t sleep
at 05:43 29 Apr 2023
Today’s going to be extremely enjoyable in a not-very-enjoyable-at-all way |
| Forum
Thread | Any clue who the commentators are cheering for?
at 20:06 25 Apr 2023
iFollow are saving costs using local commentators, more power to them, would be nice if they didn't refer to "us" and the co-commentator doesn't sigh when they miss a chance though |
| Forum
Reply | Robyn Cowen
at 10:01 11 Mar 2023
Well maybe not distraught but somewhere between ‘that’s a shame’ and ‘will someone please take over from Martin Tyler’ |
| Forum
Thread | Robyn Cowen
at 09:57 11 Mar 2023
I’m equal parts delighted and relieved that she was one of the commentators who decided not to commentate on MOTD this evening, I’d be distraught if she was cancelled:
|
| Forum
Reply | Sheffield Wednesday
at 23:26 1 Mar 2023
It’s the calendar year, they were trying their hardest to lose every game until May |
| Forum
Reply | Dean Bowditch is 36 years old
at 18:08 1 Mar 2023
I'm only a year older than Bowditch - you and I might be the same age - but you don't expect your footballers to be this age. And you certainly don't expect Dean Bowditch to be this age.
Ashley Young is born on the same day and year as me. As long as he's still wheezing along the touchline then I can be a Premier League footballer. |
| Forum
Reply | Sheffield Wednesday
at 17:35 1 Mar 2023
Agreed - it's a lot easier to average 3 points per game if you only play one game compared to playing ten |
| | backinbeige
|
Site Scores| Forum Votes: | 79 | | Comment Votes: | 45 | | Prediction League: | 0 | | TOTAL: | 124 |
|
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
).