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Reply | Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan
at 19:19 10 Aug 2025
Nice try but it’s not really option decay but more like probability compression.
Two points in April change your odds a lot more than two points in August — same value on the table, very different value in the race, and it’s the race that counts.
You’re obviously not wrong with your simplistic view of what is a far more complex statistical analysis but you are ignoring the point I was making, which was I would stress more about a 2 pt swing with 10 games to go than with 45. |
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Reply | Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan
at 18:56 10 Aug 2025
Let’s compare a 2 point gap gained with 45 games to go (now) vs 10 games to go (end March/April)
Let’s look at the statistical analysis as it’s also about how much “noise” is still left in the season. With 45 games to go, there’s so much variance in results that a 2-point gap is tiny in statistical terms – it’s about the same as flipping a coin and calling heads slightly early.
With only 10 games left, there’s far less time for random swings, so the same 2-point gap is proportionally much bigger. In fact, a 2-point lead with 10 games left is roughly as valuable as a 4-point lead in August. That’s why timing matters as much as the raw points gap.
It’s basic Standard Deviation, assuming a draw rate of ~27% which tends to be the average.
So yes, it is a question of maths. |
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Reply | Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan
at 18:41 10 Aug 2025
Oh bless, you’re a bit precious aren’t you.
I couldn’t care less about an apology either way, and doubt very much the Bannon sending off changed the outcome as Leicester were odds on to win but the fact that this is the keyboard battle you’re choosing to fight today is fantastically entertaining. |
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Reply | Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan
at 18:24 10 Aug 2025
And you must realise that there’s still 45 games left for countless other things to happen and situations change, rather than the handful left in April, right?
Same points, completely different context and situation. [Post edited 10 Aug 18:27]
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Reply | Everybody is in agreement
at 09:04 10 Aug 2025
Don’t underestimate the difference in summer break, rest and preseason either.
Brum played their last game of last season on May 3rd, we played West Ham on May 25th.
3 weeks may not seem much but almost certainly means that we are slightly behind the non relegated teams from a rest and sharpness aspect, I don’t expect fitness to be an issue but certainly sharpness from playing matches as Brum played more preseason than us.
It’s one of the few disadvantages the relegated sides have vs the rest. |
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Reply | Hope we use Tuesdays game to our advantage
at 08:41 10 Aug 2025
Not fit, are you joking?!?
The pace of Friday’s game was relentless with Brum chasing down and harassing, and we kept up with all of it, and when the Brum players were going down with cramp all over the pitch, we were taking the game to them without issues.
Fitness was not a problem on Friday.
Edit for further clarification: the issue was sharpness not fitness, related but distinct requirements. Fitness is all about a player’s physical shape – their stamina, energy, and how ready their body is for a match. Sharpness is more about the mind – being switched on, tactically aware, and able to play at the pace and intensity of real competition. [Post edited 10 Aug 8:52]
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Reply | Why is there such a debate about the penalty decision?
at 07:31 10 Aug 2025
What disallowed goal? The foul was given against the forward before the shot was made.
As for the foul itself, forward jumps into defender with no attempt for the ball, foul, no question.
I don’t get what people don’t understand about the laws of the game. [Post edited 10 Aug 7:32]
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Reply | Blades/Brizzle
at 18:37 9 Aug 2025
The amount of space given / lack of press by both sides is certainly making a more entertaining fare than last night. |
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Reply | Sam Morsy
at 18:19 9 Aug 2025
I doubt what we would have been able to offer him would have come anywhere near what he is earning on a 2 year deal in Kuwait. Worked for both parties. |
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Reply | Al Hamadi
at 11:30 9 Aug 2025
He reminds me of a less experienced Jackson with more pace and slower decision making. Coach the second more and we have a competent player to come on and use pace against tiring sides. |
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Reply | I seem to have a little contray veiw to most after last night.
at 10:12 9 Aug 2025
I would argue that Brum are as good as people think but focused more on stopping us playing than trying to outplay us. They were fearful of going toe to toe from an footballing sense, tried to outmuscle, trip, leave the boot in on several occasions to nullify and squeeze a 1-0 win.
Hence the poor game.
The more I look back on last night, the better I feel about our performance and mental strength, that was a huge point. |
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Reply | That was the blueprint for how a lot of teams will approach us this season.
at 09:58 9 Aug 2025
The fact they were unable to beat us, and spent so much of their time trying to nullify our threat is good. Our performance was not good, but I think we would have lost that game in 23/24, mentally we are much stronger than we were 2 years ago.
We won’t come up against much physically stronger defences and midfield in this division this season.
Let the new players bed down in competitive games and we will be fine. |
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Reply | Only 2 players started last night
at 09:04 9 Aug 2025
The answer to your question is not as simple as pick from these two.
Who are we playing, what is the rest of the team etc.
There are times when Burns will be preferred to Ogbene, and Clarke to Hutchinson, depending on who else is alongside and who we are up against.
You have to pick a team for the game you are about to play, not what you think is the best 11 individuals you consider in the squad. |
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