Sometimes the real story of a season is in some of the more obscure, underlying stats, and they confirm what we all know the problem is, as well as providing some unexpected optimism at a time when relegation is not an impossibility.

Play around with various form tables, and you can usually find ones where your team comes surprisingly high or low. For example, so far this season Ipswich have scored (exactly) one goal in a game 16 times in 30 matches, which is more often than anyone else. So the problem is not an inability to score, but an inability to 'push on'. Ipswich have failed to score just seven times, and only five teams have done better than that.

Similarly, if you create a table based solely on matches where the team has kept a clean sheet, another tale unfolds. Cardiff top this one, having kept 10 clean sheets and won all of those games, whereas Ipswich are bottom of that table, having kept a respectable six clean sheets, but only having won two of those matches. My take on this is that Town can keep clean sheets but only at the expense of attacking success. Or the team goes the other way: Ipswich have let in three or more on seven occasions, only Scunthorpe (eight times) have done worse.

It's been a while - seven matches - since any of those clean sheets though: only QPR fans (an incredible 19 matches) need longer memories.

The most common team/score combination in the division so far this season is a 1-1 draw involving Ipswich (nine times) followed by a 1-1 draw involving Palace and a 0-1 defeat for Plymouth (both eight times).

So, where's all this leading us? To a prediction of whether or not relegation is likely, that's where. Last season, the points total needed to finish fourth from bottom was 47. In the previous seasons since 2000/01, the corresponding figure has ranged from 43 to 53, with 50 being typical. However, the points needed to be fourth from bottom after 30 matches this season is 34, which is higher than any of those seasons (where it's ranged from 26 to 32). So on that basis, it's fair to predict 54 points might be needed to avoid relegation this year.

Are Ipswich going to make it? Britannia Stander Andy P has broken the season down into six manageable chunks - the first of six games, then five chunks of eight. In the first six, Town managed only two points, and in the second eight only six points.

But the next two chunks saw 13 points and 12 points respectively, an average of 1.63 and 1.50 points per game. Had Town drawn at Peterborough that would have meant 1.63 points per game for the last 16 matches, a performance that over an entire season leads to 75 points and a comfortable play-off place. So Town have almost been playing to play-off standard recently, amazingly.

If Ipswich keep up 1.5 points per game, the result would be 57 points and safety. So, despite the doom and gloom, carry on at this rate and the worst-case scenario should be avoided.

LincsBluebelly added 13:04 - Feb 18 Here's another statistic to ponder...if you discount all the matches in which we haven't won, then we would be averaging 3 point per game. Therefore, if we extrapolate this over the course of the season, we would end up with an amazing 138 points! Unfortunately, however, we can't discount the poor results when analysing statistics or trends.
0

jpr_23 added 13:05 - Feb 18 Amazingly, we're not playing to Play-Off standards. We're almost playing to it, if we'd won a bit more, in one small arbitary chunk of the season. Actually, we're playing to relegation form, because we've hardly won all season and are currently, based on the season as a whole to now, in the bottom three. Not that amazing, is it... Still, at least our manager was a really really good player in his time.

0

CherryHintonBlue added 13:33 - Feb 18 Over the first third of the season we played to relegation standard (11 points from 15 games), and over the middle third we've played almost to playoff standard (22 points from 15 games). If we carry on at this rate (22 points from the next 15 games) we'll go into the last match with 55 points, which should be plenty to avoid relegation. That's all I'm saying.

0

LincsBluebelly added 13:54 - Feb 18 CHB, ignore my sarcasm...I admire your optimism!
0

JayITFC added 13:57 - Feb 18 All the stats in the world can't hide the fact we're in the bottom 3 with a third of the season remaining. Worrying times indeed...
0

arc added 14:07 - Feb 18 A few weeks ago I might have agreed with the sentiment behind this article—we seemed to be improving, had pulled away from the relegation places, and it seemed that we would comfortably push on into mid-table. The last few weeks, however, we have been poor again, teams around us are winning, and we're back in the bottom three. Without a dramatic reversal, we're going down.

0

rml123 added 20:23 - Feb 18 What a stupid article. You could take any section of the season and bend it anyway you like. Hey if we beat Sheff Weds on Saturday, we will be playing at Champions standard over a 1 game period.
0

RobbieScarlatti added 21:16 - Feb 18 I work in stats, so i'm used to turning things to how i want. But this is taking the biscuit. The little burst of half decent form is the outlier here, not the drudgery of the majority of games where we have achieved nothing.
0

svendust added 00:34 - Feb 19 Statistically we have only lost to teams begining with P in the last past 4 months (if you include Palace) I believe if there were no teams in the division starting with P we would be in the play offs now. Looking ahead we only have Plymouth left to play out of the 16 games remaining. Therefore if we are averaging 1.63 points that would give us around 57/58 points at the end of the season (15 x 1.63 + 33). Though I am hoping we can coninue current form and hope QPR continue theirs, as I think that would be enough for the bottom 3 to be Posh, Plymouth and QPR.

0

Superfrans added 10:03 - Feb 19 CherryHinton - ignore the idiot comments above, they clearly don't understand statistics and what they mean. Your analysis is admirable. And, for me, it makes it clear - we were in deep relegation form during the first quarter of the season, and we improved in the next two quarters, but that hasn't been enough to take us clear of relegation trouble - which, given how bad our start was, is not surprising. The only flaw in your thesis is that it relies on our easy and difficult matches being evenly spread throughout the season. But teams go in and out of form - we played QPR at the right time and Peterboro at the wrong time, it seems to me. So, it is reasonable to overlook that factor. Fundamentally though, the question is whether we can recapture that play-off form after the Peterboro defeat. We will find out in the next couple of matches, I guess.

0

stiffshorts added 11:03 - Feb 19 What's truly amazing, to me, is the awful footballing side we've developed into over the past 3 seasons in particular. We used to have a tempo about our game, short slick passes, accurate as well. Players that ran into positions to cover the odd loose ball, players not afraid to "have a go" and, most of all, a feeling for the fans that no matter how many the opposition scored the "mighty" Town would score at least one more. Now we have developed into a defensive, sideways style of play that relies on containment and midfield holding. This season in particular (must be Keano's coaching) a style where the players try to express themselves early on then suffer from lack of self belief to go that extra yard when in front. The "hit & hope" Wimbledon way when we're under a little pressure. There is a massive underlying coaching problem with our club at the moment that has developed into a style of football that contains and restrains what should be good class players. Whose fault is that? I want to be optimistic but 3 seasons of deteriation have numbed me. This is not the ITFC I grew up loving. I don't know where it's all gone wrong but I do know what is wrong. As supporters we deserve much, much better.

0

alfromcol added 19:59 - Feb 19 Two more clubs going into administration would be very helpful and may be our best bet for staying in the Championship!!
0

RobbieScarlatti added 21:41 - Feb 19 Is Keane going to get us promoted? Computer says no.
0

Geomorph added 17:44 - Feb 20 good stuff chb. I can't believe the degree of ignorance being displayed here. W7 D7 L3 in the last 17 games makes 1.65 points per game... easily play off standard. Clearly the first 14 games of the season were terrible. Hence our still precarious position
0

DrJeckyll added 16:51 - Feb 21 good blog, u can take a horse to water but you cant make it drink
0

Kropotkin123 added 13:19 - Feb 24 7pts from 4 away games = 1.75pts a game. Not bad going at all, considering many of those where teams we are suppose to be equal to... if the table doesn't lie. The table above us is looking very tight and if we get a good result against Bristol City, this blogger may well have smile which reads as clearly as the facts presented in the blog.
0

jabberjackson added 20:21 - Feb 24 a very interesting analysis, and clearly way above RML123 intellectual capacity whose unnecessarily abusive message makes me very sad indeed i wonder whether he's one of the extremely irritating boo boys that do nothing to makle us feel great about our club and our support carry on analysing cherryhintonblue, great stuff
0

Trotsky added 00:45 - Apr 7 Nice blog. Interesting reading a few months later. Town have got it to 1.64 points per game average over a period of 28 consecutive games. In that period, forest have got 3 more points than us, and only newcastle and west brom have done better than us or forest. And yes, the whole season counts of course, but by and large, 1.64 points over a 28 game period to now is nothing to be sniffed at considering what went on at the start of the season.

0

Blogs 295 bloggers