Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 18th September 2023 10:06
The Town will go marching on, to St Mary’s on Tuesday in what will arguably be their toughest test yet.
It’s hard to judge this Southampton squad on its form pre-international break as a constant churn of players being sold and signed meant an inconsistent side game to game.
Now that has all settled they’ll come out of the international break having lost James Ward-Prowse to West Ham, Romeo Lavia to Chelsea and Nathan Tella to Bayer Leverkusen and a few more on top of that.
In the manager's hotseat is another of the EFL’s highly-rated bosses. Russell Martin has drawn plaudits for his style of play at MK Dons and Swansea but this is seen as his biggest test yet with some critics saying he is all style and no substance.
So far the Saints have had a solid start to the season with three wins (2-1 Sheffield Wednesday, 2-1 Plymouth, 2-1 QPR), one draw (4-4 Norwich) and a 5-0 defeat to Sunderland before the international break which may have caused questions to start being asked. They also had to rely on late goals in games against both Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth so Town will need to make sure they focus for the full 90-plus minutes.
Their first game back after the international break did not go as planned with a 4-1 loss to Leicester. Despite having more possession, their high line was constantly exposed as Leicester punished them on the counter-attack. That means they come into this one having conceded nine goals in their last two games.
As you can see below Martin’s teams are possession-heavy and passing focused, so this will be a very different test to the game against Sheffield Wednesday
<h1>Goalkeepers </h1>
In between the sticks for the Saints is £12 million-keeper Gavin Bazunu. The 21-year-old signed from Man City is the perfect stylistic fit for Martin’s Saints, favouring the sweeper-keeper role and playing out with his feet.
But the bread-and-butter of keeping the ball out of the net is where there are still question marks. He was swapped out for Alex McCarthy at the end of the last campaign and fans have been calling for him to be replaced again this season. Martin has publicly stood behind Bazunu and stated him will continue to pick him as the youngster will only get better and better.
He has faced Town before in loan spells for Rochdale, when he put in a very impressive display in a 2-0 defeat at Portman Road, and Portsmouth when he condeded four (Bonne, Chaplin, Aluko, Burns) in a horrendous performance at Fratton Park before putting in a far better performance to keep a clean sheet at Portman Road.
He has conceded 16 goals so far already this season (four against Norwich and five against Sunderland and four against Leicester) and currently has a –3.92 goals prevented rate. He came across far too wide and opened up the angle for Mavididi to slot Leicester's fourth past him.
His deputy this season has so far been the aforementioned McCarthy. The stopper had a very short loan spell at Town conceding 12 goals in 10 appearances back in 2012 and has been with the Saints since 2016. During that time he has made 136 appearances most of which were in the Premier League and kept 36 clean sheets with there being a few occasions where he has come back in to replace a new number one, including Bazunu.
Now 33 years old McCarthy should provide quality cover but may struggle for game time with Southampton having been knocked out in the first round of the Carabao Cup by Gillingham. He’ll probably feel disappointed if he doesn’t get a start soon with Bazunu conceding so many.
<h1>Defence </h1>
Southampton have one of the best right-backs in the league in Kyle Walker-Peters whose form was so impressive just over a year ago that he made his England debut. It is a surprise that he has not left the club but he will bring undoubted quality.
Walker-Peters has been shifted back to his favoured right-back position following the sale of Tino Livramento and has started the season in excellent form, getting up and down the right wing and even winning a penalty against Norwich.
His pace and dribbling ability are both assets but he’s also solid defensively winning 74% of his ground duels so far. Where he may have a weakness is in the air having only won 43% of his aeriel duels with crosses to the back post definitely proving to be a weakness against Sunderland.
His back-up in that position is another man that Town fans may remember. James Bree came in on loan in January during the 2018/19 relegation season and was a solid if unspectacular performer. He then found a home at Luton Town and went on to play 143 games for the Hatters, including 27 in last year's promotion-winning season.
Bree joined the Saints at the end of the January window when he was reunited with old Luton boss Nathan Jones, but found himself out of the squad after only two games when Jones was sacked.
He’s featured once in the Carabao Cup for Southampton so far this season and has been on the bench for most of the league games but will no doubt find it extremely hard to replace an in-form Walker-Peters.
The starting pairing of centre-backs for Southampton has been Jan Bednarek and Jack Stephens, both players who have been at St Mary's for a while. It was an area of weakness in terms of depth for the Saints which has been covered by the loan signings of Mason Holgate and Taylor Harwood-Bellis late in the window.
Bednarek is a Poland international and has 50 caps for the national side. He was signed from Lech Poznan back in 2017 and has made 178 appearances for the Saints since then, scoring eight goals, including one in the 4-4 draw with Norwich.
It looked like he might have been on his way out of the club with a loan move to Aston Villa at the beginning of the 2022 season but he only started one game for the Villains before being recalled in January.
Bednarek was one of Southampton's better players following his recall and has continued that form into this season, although he was one of many defensive players to have a poor game against Sunderland.
Stephens has been at Southampton since he was 17 but has only managed 155 appearances for the club. In a lot of seasons he played roughly half of the games but was always more of a rotation option than the first name on the team sheet. He spent last season on loan at Bournemouth but again was in and out of the first team, making 17 appearances in total.
Given Saints' tenure in the top flight, the Championship is a new experience for both him and Bednarek and they’ll both be looking to prove that they can play at a higher level.
Stephens picked up a knock in the last game before the international break so it remains to be seen whether he’ll feature in this one.
Holgate has had a mixed career to date. He broke into the Everton team in 2016/17 making 18 Premier League appearances and a further 15 the following season. Then came a Championship loan spell at West Brom where he made 19 appearances in a productive season where the Baggies made the play-offs.
That was followed by another three seasons in the Everton first team (80 Premier League appearances in those) before again falling out of favour last season as Sean Dyche turned to experienced campaigners Conor Coady, Michael Keane and James Tarkowski.
He had a Southampton debut to forget in the 5-0 defeat to Sunderland but will be looking to improve as he gets more minutes and fitness under his belt.
Man City youngster Harwood-Bellis was one of Burnley's key players last season. The ball playing defender played 32 games for the Clarets, keeping 11 clean sheets in the process. He was also a key player as England won the U21 Euros, captaining the side to the title.
He had the sixth most passes in the league for a defender last year with 2,484 and should fit into Martin’s possession-based team like a glove. He made his debut against Leicester but much like Holgate's it wasn’t his finest performance.
Southampton’s main threat, much like Ipswich comes down the left side of defence. Ryan Manning was Martin’s first signing when he was made manager of the Saints and is a crucial cog in the way he wants to play.
Picked up on a free transfer from Martin's former club Swansea the left-back, who came close to joining the Town academy as a youngster, has made the second most passes for a defender so far this season with fellow full-back Walker-Peters in third place. But where he stands out is in the number of those that are key passes (14), second only to Town's Leif Davis (19) in that metric as can be seen below. *All stats pre-international break
Manning also excelled in both of those metrics with the Swans last season with more than 100 key passes for his side. He also contributed five goals and 10 assists and already has two assists so far this season, making him one of their key men to watch. It is likely a battle between him and Davis as to who is the best left-back in the league this year.
It is, however, a position where Southampton have very little cover. Walker-Peters could fill in there if required with Holgate also having played there a few times for Everton, but there is no natural replacement for Manning were he to get injured.
Young 17-year-old Jayden Meghoma deputised for him in the cup, making his Saints debut but struggled along with a lot of his teammates in that game. He’s an England U17 international and clearly has promise, but it’s likely that it would be seen as too early for him to get regular Championship game time.
<h1>Midfield </h1>
Martin sets up his team in a 4-3-3 formation which means the midfield usually consists of a deeper-lying holding midfielder and two further advanced. Ward-Prowse started the season in the deep role but since his move it has been filled by Shea Charles and then in the last two games against Sunderland and Leicester by former Ipswich man Flynn Downes.
Downes was one of the few players to come out of the Sunderland game having put in a relatively good performance. Downes made 99 appearances at Town before leaving for Swansea. He only stayed one season in Wales before West Ham swooped in. He started seven Premier League games last year for the Hammers and played a big part in their Europa Conference League run, featuring in all of the games up to the quarter-final before being dropped for the semis.
If his season at Swansea is anything to go by he will become crucial to the Saints midfield once he gets fully up to speed. Unfortunately for him he came off against Leicester with what looked like a foot injury, so is a doubt for this one.
Before Downes's arrival it was 19-year-old Northern Irishman Charles filling the deep lying role. Charles has eight full international caps and signed this summer from Manchester City’s academy for £15 million. He scored in a pre-season friendly against Bournemouth and hasn’t looked out of his depth so far.
With the arrival of Downes to play the holding role, Charles may end up getting more opportunities in the more advanced midfield positions. However, against Leicester he was surprisingly deployed as a central defender, potentially to deal with Leicester’s pace on the counter. That experiment did not work and with Downes going off with a knock, it’s likely he’ll slot back into midfield for this one.
One of Southampton's brightest prospects last season was Carlos Alcaraz, not to be confused with the tennis prodigy of the same name. Following everyone's favourite Football Manager strategy, the Saints picked him up from Argentinian side Racing Club in January for £12 million.
He started to pay off the fee last season with four goals and two assists. Two of those goals came from outside the box, one a run from deep and finish against Leicester and the other seizing on an Aaron Ramsdale mistake and calmly firing home.
His skillset is the perfect match for the two advanced eights that Martin likes to utilise and although he’s only scored once so far this season (v Gillingham) more are surely to come. He’s taken the joint-third most shots in the league of all midfielders so far with eight.
Next is one of two Armstrongs in this squad (neither will hold a candle to Alun). Stuart Armstrong joined Southampton from Celtic in July 2018 and has 149 Premier League appearances to his name alongside 16 goals and 12 assists. In all those years he has been a regular starter for Southampton, maybe not playing every game but hitting no less than 25 appearances throughout the season.
He’s started four out of six games this season picking up two yellow cards already. He’s a versatile player and has a penchant for a long ranger screamer every now and then. Like Alcaraz in the other eight role he has also taken eight shots so far this season.
<h1>Forwards </h1>
On to the other Armstrong. Adam Armstrong is a prolific goalscorer at Championship level and is already proving that again this season, sitting joint-top goal scorer after five games with four goals (Norwich's Jonathan Rowe, Hull's Ozan Tufan, Plymouth's Ryan Hardie and Preston's Will Keane are the others). Hardie is now top after game six with five and Blackburn's Sammie Szmodics and Hull's Aaron Connolly have joined Armstrong on four.
Armstrong's overall record stands at 61 goals and 21 assists in 192 Championship games. Although his main position is as the central striker, Martin also sees his attributes fitting one of the number eight roles in midfield and he was trialed there successfully against Plymouth. With Nathan Tella leaving and Che Adams rumoured to have been after a Premier League move, it looks like that could have been a one-off with him being needed as the main striker now.
Adams didn’t get the move and is still at the club. He’s been something of a super-sub this season scoring winners against Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth, as well as another goal against Norwich.
His only starts so far were in the game against Plymouth and then in a front two alongside Armstrong at Leicester and he’ll be hoping to get some more game time now that the midweek games are kicking in.
Adams is certainly a quality player to have sitting on the bench with his Championship record of 37 goals in 120 appearances. Twenty-two of those came in a prolific season for Birmingham City in 46 games.
Southampton definitely have strikers capable of finding the back of the net
With Tella leaving, a lot more will be resting on the shoulders of 20-year-old Samuel Edozie. A player that lots of Saints fans were calling to be given more game time last year, the youngster has quick feet and excellent dribbling ability.
Edozie has already started as many games this season as last, providing the threat on the left flank with his ability to either go down the line or cut inside on his favoured right foot. He will only improve as time goes on and with Town’s right side having been a weakness so far may end up getting some joy and adding to his two goals so far this season.
Twenty-one-year-old Sekou Mara was signed from Bordeaux in July of last year as one for the future, however he ended up playing 22 games, mainly off of the bench, scoring his only goal so far in a 4-1 defeat by Manchester City.
Although his preferred position is as the central striker, he finds himself firmly behind Adam Armstrong and Adams in the pecking order this season. Because of this and due to the sale of Tella, Martin trialed him on the right-hand side of the three against Sunderland and given the lack of other options he may be used there again against Town should Martin chose to rotate his squad.
Kamaldeen Sulemana is another signing from January last year, who was signed with the future in mind. He’s a full Ghanaian international with 18 caps to his name and was one of the bright sparks last season following his signing from Reims. He scored two goals in the 4-4 draw with Liverpool in the last game of last season.
Sulemana has been injured for the start of the season but got his first minutes at the weekend. He won’t be taking to the pitch against Town, however, as he received a bizarre straight red in that match against Leicester in what appeared to be a 50/50 challenge.
Should Martin want to play with two inverted wingers, he has a couple of options who could also fill in there. The first is 17-year-old Samuel Amo-Ameyaw. This is the youngster's breakthrough season and after an impressive performance in the Carabao Cup he has been trusted to make one start and two substitute appearances in the league so far.
The other option is Mr Versatile, Joe Aribo. Signed from Rangers at the beginning of last season, Aribo found himself filling in wherever he was needed, playing in central midfield, on either wing and as the central striker. Aribo managed two goals in his 22 appearances that season.
He has made five appearances so far this season, all from the bench and again in various positions, featuring in the eight role, left wing and right wing and up front so far. Chances are he’ll come on against Town but where he’ll play, who knows?
Southampton have also brought in some experience in the wide areas with Ryan Fraser joining on loan from Newcastle. The Scotsman scored four goals and assisted five in 18 appearances during a loan spell at Town in 2015/16, impressing the Portman Road faithful.
The Scotland international struggled with injuries during that period and that has continued throughout his career, but he has always done well once he’s got a run of games. He’s made two appearances from the bench for the Saints this season and has lookied to use the international break to get up to speed making his first start against Leicester.
The final signing the Southampton made on transfer deadline day was the £8 million addition of Ross Stewart from Sunderland. He’s currently out injured but will add yet more firepower to that frontline. I’m not going to go into too much detail as I covered a lot about him in the Sunderland preview.
<h1>The Line-Ups </h1>
Injuries and fixture congestion make these teams quite hard to pick. Martin has kept faith in Bazunu so far and is likely to stick with him in goal. Walker-Peters and Manning are likely to continue at full-back with Bednarek coming back into defence to partner Harwood-Bellis.
harles will move further forward back into the holding role and I can see Alcaraz and Stuart Armstrong coming in to midfield to provide a bit more stability.
Fraser is slowly building up fitness and could continue in this one and with Sulemana suspended Edozie is likely to keep his place on the left. Amo-Ameyaw has impressed in his appearances so far so I expect him to get some time off of the bench.
Adams and Adam Armstrong both started against Leicester in a slight formation tweak but I think Armstrong will get the nod on his own for this one.
I was surprised by the consistency of the Town line-up against Sheffield Wednesday and a lot could depend of fitness. Vaclav Hladky should start in goal. With Janoi Donacien still not having trained it will be interesting to see if Harry Clarke’s achilles can do two games in quick succession, but I've kept him in.
With Kieran McKenna saying he’s going to slowly bed Axel Tuanzebe in, the centre-halves will be unchanged with Brandon Williams likely to replace Davis, who came off against Wednesday with what could be a serious injury.
I thought Jack Taylor might have come in against Wednesday but the midfield ended up unchanged. This could be a battle against Southampton so I expect it to continue to be unchanged unless there are fitness issues. Taylor could end up getting his chance fairly soon with Morsy picking up his fourth yellow card against the Owls.
I toyed with Jackson starting this one for his pace in behind but where he comes in, I couldn’t place. Is it a direct replacement for Wes Burns, does McKenna go for pace down both wings with him coming in for Nathan Broadhead or does he start him up top? I’ve gone for none of the above. I fancy Burns, Chaplin and Broadhead to start with George Hirst in front of them and Jackson's pace to be utilised off of the bench as a replacement for any one of those.
<h1>Action areas </h1>
This one promises to be a fascinating tactical battle between two of the division’s highest-rated managers. There is no doubt that Town will not have the majority of the possession in this one. With Russell Martin's side averaging 68% possession against the teams they have faced so far. If you take the Leicester game out of the equation that goes up to 71%.
However, against both Sunderland and Leicester in particular that possession and possession in high areas of the pitch (Walker-Peters and Manning’s average position is well into the opposition's half) means they are susceptible to the counter-attack. This is where Town’s strengths lie with their pace and finishing.
Burns-v-Manning seems like a mismatch and wherever Jackson ends up starting or coming on he’s bound to cause pace in behind. It looks likely to be a very open, end-to-end game with whoever finishes their chances better taking the points.
<h1>Prediction </h1>
Town are still in top form, but Southampton will be hurting and looking to bounce back after two straight defeats. I think it will be an open game with plenty of goals and I'm going for a 3-3 draw with plenty of action at both ends.