Premier League Preview: Southampton

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 20th September 2024 11:59

Southampton haven’t had the best start to the season. Sticking to their principals of possession-based passing football but coming unstuck to two 1-0 defeats before more comprehensive losses to Brentford and Manchester United.

The first game against Newcastle will have been a particularly tough pill to swallow having played over 62 minutes against 10 men following Fabian Schar’s red card.

Their one success is progress in the Carabao Cup with victories against Cardiff and fellow strugglers Everton (on penalties).

Like Town, they’ve been active in the transfer market with 15 players arriving in the summer window as they looked to enhance their squad and make it competitive in the Premier League.

<h1>Goalkeepers </h1>

Gavin Bazunu finished last season with a goals prevented rate of –11.52 as he played 41 games, keeping just 11 clean sheets.

The Irish international suffered an unfortunate injury that kept him out of the play-off final against Leeds and veteran keeper Alex McCarthy seized his opportunity taking the gloves off him in that one and establishing himself in goal for the start of the season. The one-time Town loanee was Southampton’s best player against Nottingham Forest making seven saves.

However, the Saints moved to strengthen in that area with the permanent signing of Aaron Ramsdale. Ramsdale had two good season’s as the number one keeper at Arsenal before being displaced by David Raya and is certainly an upgrade in that area. He’s come straight into the team and without him the result against Manchester United could have been a lot worse.

<h1>Defence </h1>

Manager Russell Martin has ditched the 4-3-3 that served the Saints well in the Championship and switched to a back three, which allows them to get more central defenders on the pitch.

That back three so far has consisted of Tyler Harwood-Bellis, Jan Bednarek and Jack Stephens. There was a tactical switch to a 4-2-3-1 against Manchester United but whether that was just in the hope of getting a win or a specific game plan is hard to tell.

Harwood-Bellis and Bednarek were the regular pairing in the Championship season and Stephens came in at left-back in last year's game against Town, playing a free role that allowed him to drift into midfield which caused a bunch of problems early on.

Between the three of them they have already completed 741 passes, 46 of which have been progressive (moving the ball up the pitch). Stephens won’t be available for this one having been given a straight red against Manchester United.

Alongside the back three, both wing-backs have also been consistent. Twenty-four-year-old Yukinari Sugawara was signed over the summer from Dutch side AZ Alkmaar where he helped them keep nine clean sheets, but it’s his assists that stand out, with the Japanese international contributing seven of them in 30 appearances.

Sugawara has slotted in on the right which has seen one of last year's stand out performers Kyle Walker-Peters move over to the left. The 27-year-old will be hoping to use his new Premier League platform to push for a place in the England squad once again and, like in the Championship last season, he ranks highly for both passing and dribbling metrics as can be seen below.

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The backline was completely changed in the Carabao Cup and a back four of James Bree, Ronnie Edwards, Nathan Wood and Charlie Taylor featured against Cardiff.

Of those four, Ronnie Edwards is the one I'm most intrigued about. The highly-rated 21-year-old joined the Saints in the summer off the back of two incredibly successful seasons in League One with Peterborough, having been named in the PFA Team of the Year at the end of last season. He really suits Southampton’s style being incredibly comfortable on the ball but is likely to be integrated slowly.

Nathan Wood is again in a similar category. Only 22 years old, he was signed from Swansea over the summer after a couple of good seasons for the Swans.

The back-up full-backs are the opposite, former Town loanee Bree has a season of Premier League experience with Luton and Taylor has 161 Premier League appearances from his six Premier League seasons with Burnley and will no doubt become a leader in the dressing room.

That’s left Martin’s favourite from his time at Swansea, Ryan Manning, at the back of the queue with youngsters Juan Larios and Armel Bella-Kotchap, who spent last season on loan at PSV, as the only players in the defensive unit to have not started any games yet.

<h1>Midfielders </h1>

Martin started the season with a consistent midfield, picking a trio containing Flynn Downes, Joe Aribo and Will Smallbone. The former Town player has been playing as the deepest of the three and is up there in terms of defensive metrics with Bruno Guimares, Christian Norgard and Sam Morsy, which can be seen below.

The trio form a very compact midfield with Walker-Peters often drifting in there to form a box with Aribo and Smallbone ahead of him and Downes.

Downes's back-up is highly rated Chelsea loanee Lesley Ugochukwu. The 20-year-old is 6ft 3in tall and very physical for his age. He’s not managed to get much game time at Chelsea but did make 60 appearances for Stade Rennais before siging for the London side. Ugochukwu was drafted in against Manchester United to provide more cover in midfield alongside Downes.

Another addition to the Saints midfield unit over the summer was 20-year-old Matheus Fernandes from Sporting Lisbon. He spent last season out on loan at fellow Portuguese side Estoril, who finished 13th out of 18 teams.

He only scored one goal in his spell there but did average 1.3 key passes per game and played as a number ten against Manchester United.

It’s a fairly young midfield unit but Adam Lallana returns to his old stomping ground to add some much-needed experience. Now 36, he made 266 appearances for the Saints in his first spell there, making 106 goal contributions (60 goals and 46 assists).

Lallana has 34 caps for England and despite his age still featured in the Premier League 25 times for Brighton last season, so will hope to still contribute even if his minutes are likely to largely be off the bench.

The final player to mention in this round up is Tyler Dibling. The 18-year-old scored twice in pre-season and impressed so much that he earnt a starting berth in midfield for the Carabao Cup game against Cardiff.

He went on to get two assists in that one and has appeared off the bench in all of Saints' first three Premier League games. He got his first start of the season against Manchester United and looked good in that one too. This could well be a break-out season for the youngster.

<h1>Attackers </h1>

Saints' new wing-back system has meant a switch to two central strikers up front. Adam Armstrong will need no introduction. Despite 21 goals and 13 assists last season he somehow missed out to Georginio Rutter in the Championship team of the season. He’ll be looking to prove that he’s got what it takes to play in the Premier League having only scored four goals in 71 top flight appearances to date.

His partner so far has been Ben Brereton-Diaz. The 25-year-old Chile international has always had plenty of talent but there are definitely questions around his attitude. He played the role of pantomime villain to perfection against Newcastle getting Schar sent off for the slightest of headbutts.

Like Armstrong, Brereton-Diaz excelled at Championship level and looked like he could make the step up to the Premier League in last season's loan spell with Sheffield United, scoring six goals in 16 appearances. He can also play out on the left-wing if the Saints do stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation.

Ross Stewart and Paul Onuachu are both within the striking ranks but both suffered serious injuries with Onuachu yet to feature at all and Stewart coming off the bench for the closing minutes of Tuesday night’s Carabao Cup tie against Everton.

This leaves new signing Cameron Archer as the only other fit natural centre forward. Archer hit three goals in pre-season with Aston Villa before scoring a brace in the Carabao Cup. He was a regular starter for Sheffield United last season and at just 22 years old has a lot of room for growth. His confidence may have taken a knock having missed an important penalty against Manchester United last game.

Deadline-day loan signing Maxwell Cornet could also be utilised as a striker, although the Ivorian is more of a natural winger and can also cover the wing-back slots if needed.

His spell at West Ham hasn’t gone too well so far but Southampton will hope he can find the form he had at Burnley prior to that move, where he scored nine in 26.

That leaves three wingers currently in the squad following Samuel Edozie’s loan move to RSC Anderlecht. Kamaldeen Sulemana was meant to be following him out of the door with a loan move to Ajax but that fell through before the end of the window, so he’ll still be around, alongside Sam Amo-Ameyaw and Ryan Fraser, who has made his loan move from Newcastle permanent.

Whether either of them will get game time still remains to be seen but Fraser will bring some more experience and Premier League know-how to the squad and Amo-Ameyaw has already shown some of his talent at just 18 years old with a goal in the Carabao Cup and will be looking to make the most of minutes in cup competitions and off the bench.

<h1>The Teams </h1>

Town come into this one having secured back-to-back points against teams currently in fifth and 12th, so it seems unlikely that manager Kieran McKenna will change too much from Brighton.

Luke Woolfenden was unlucky to be dropped against Brighton and could come back in for this one, but that is the only change I can foresee.

Wes Burns and George Hirst will both be fitter having had another week of training, which means the bench strength will increase even more.

Southampton faced Everton on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup, fielding a much-changed side but still going through on penalties.

This is likely to mean that Saturday’s line-up will be a lot closer to the one that started against Manchester United. The only change I can see is Harwood-Bellis replacing the suspended Jack Stephens.

<h1>Prediction </h1>

It’s too early for games to be must win but given the strength of the league there aren’t as many opportunities to pick up points as the Championship, so there does seem to be some added weight on this one.

Southampton are trying to stick to their principles but McKenna proved that he could outthink Martin twice last season.

I think he can do it again here, but I don’t think it will be easy. Southampton come with threats down either side in young Dibling, who excelled against Manchester United, and Walker-Peters, who was a class above in the Championship. I’m going for a 1-0 victory.

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