Premier League Preview: Southampton

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 31st January 2025 11:27

Town won’t get a better chance at emerging victorious at Portman Road than this one as rock bottom Southampton come to visit.

Following Leicester’s victory against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday the two teams occupy 19th and 20th position but while Town are just one point from safety, Southampton are another ten further back.

They have just six points from 23 games. Their sole victory was a 1-0 win against Everton back in November. The other three points have come from their home game against Town, a 1-1 with Brighton and a battling 0-0 with Fulham.

All of those were before new manager Ivan Juric came in. The Croatian manager who has only ever managed in Italy before this job, has not picked up a single point in charge so far but earned some respite with a 3-0 FA Cup win against Swansea.

His career in Italy doesn’t really contain anything noteworthy with his most successful time coming at Torino between 2021 and 2024 where he achieved a 36.07% win rate.

In his games in charge so far he has made the Saints more of a threat going forward but that has also led to even more defensive vulnerabilities as can be seen above.

<h1>Previous meeting (Southampton 1-1 Ipswich Town) </h1>

The trip to the south coast didn’t get off the the best of starts for Town as they gave veteran midfielder Adam Lallana too much space to pick out Tyler Dibling just outside the box. Jacob Greaves missed the interception and the youngster took one excellent touch to control the ball before giving Aro Muric the eyes and calmly side-footing past him into the net.

Sam Szmodics had a free header the other end before Cameron Archer really should have done better, rounding Muric but hitting the post with a tame side footed effort.

Dara O’Shea and Leif Davis then tested Aaron Ramsdale in the Saints goal before Omari Hutchinson produced some magic footwork and fired in a shot reminiscent of Hull away last season, but Ramsdale was there again to produce an excellent save.

The second half was a bit quieter but Archer did have another great chance. Once again, Greaves was at fault but the Saints striker could only poke his shot right into the onrushing Muric.

Szmodics and George Hirst then had chances before Southampton got another attempt on goal away from a deep free-kick, then Hirst tested Ramsdale with a header to win a corner.

The intial delivery from Davis was headed away but it fell invitingly to Sam Morsy on the edge of the box to take a touch and fire a deflected shot past the despairing Ramsdale to spark wild scenes in the away end.

Ipswich came away from the match with six shots on target, their joint-highest of the season along with Manchester United (H) and generated an xG of 1.6, again the highest of the season alongside Manchester United (H), Chelsea (H) and Tottenham (A), so were definitely creative in this match and made Ramsdale earn his money.

Southampton were happy to let Town have the ball in their half, the length of Muric’s passes were the shortest of all games and Town only had one goal-kick throughout the whole 90 minutes, showing how the Saints liked to keep the ball and not waste chances.

Town’s 10 passes into the penalty area was a season high and they also made the second-most progressive passes out of all games, which shows that although Southampton are good on the ball, their work off it leaves a lot to be desired.

Whilst they didn’t have many goal-kicks, Ipswich won a lot of free-kicks with 19 in total, they also put 23 crosses into the box. A large part of that will be down to the fact they had 10 corners, another season high and Town were good at winning the ball in the air too with 69.2% or aerial duels won, another season high.

Defensively, Town targeted their press to when Southampton tried to play through the middle, attempting 11 tackles in the midfield third but winning just one of three.

They did, however, manage 13 interceptions. Interceptions looks like an area that’s been worked on with the 4-1 defeat to Liverpool last weekend (13) and the 2-2 draw with Fulham recently (15) the only two games this season with higher number. A big factor in the Liverpool game was Kalvin Phillips energy with six of those interceptions coming from him.

<h1>Players to watch </h1>

This section has been too successful at predicting who to watch out for in recent games as five goals in the last three games have come from players I've picked out. Let's hope this one ends that trend.

<b>Taylor Harwood-Bellis </b>

Harwood-Bellis was a player that Town were interested in at the end of last season but his loan deal with Southampton from Man City had an option to buy when the Saints got promoted. He’s had a tough time in the Premier League and has made six errors leading to goals. Only Chelsea keeper Robert Sanchez has now made more.

<b>Jan Bednarek </b>

Centre-half Bednarek has scored two goals in his last two games to put himself joint-top of Southampton’s scoring charts. Both goals came from inside the box. One a deft flick to divert a shot into the top corner and the other a great attacking header as he was left unmarked in the middle of the box. Dibling, Joe Aribo, Adam Armstrong and Archer are the other Saints players who are also on two.

<b>Paul Onuachu </b>

The giant striker (6ft 7in) is the man who has benefitted the most from the change in manager, starting four of the last six games. It was a game where he didn’t start where he netted his first goal of the season, coming off the bench to score against Nottingham Forest.

With Dibling having spent time out injured, Juric seems to have gone with an old school front two, which tends to be a little and large combination with Onuachu and one other alongside him.

<h1>January Window </h1>

It’s been a quiet window for Southampton as it has for many other teams. Their only notable additions are Albert Gronbaek, who has joined on loan from French side Reims having struggled this season following his summer move from Bodo/Glimt, and Brazilian defender Welington, who has signed from Sao Paolo.

Both could be considered risks with no Premier League pedigree and Saints may well be looking to build for a future in the Championship with both signings.

<h1>The Teams </h1>

Now that the busy period is over Town boss Kieran McKenna has the luxury of being more consistent in his team selections again, especially with a break for the FA Cup next weekend.

Christian Walton is likely to continue in goal and Axel Tuanzebe will almost certainly be at right-back, but I can see arguments about every other slot in the backline.

Dara O’Shea and Greaves played against Liverpool, which made sense, but both Luke Woolfenden and Cameron Burgess are better on the ball, something that could be important against this lowly Saints side.

Davis only managed a half with illness before being replaced by Conor Townsend, who once again did excellently, but as long as Davis is fit I believe he’ll start.

Then there’s the midfield. A lot will depend on how Jens Cajuste is, the Swedish international having been rested last week. Kalvin Phillips did very well against Liverpool so he’d be the first name to pick in there with Sam Morsy the obvious choice to pair with him, but I also wouldn’t rule out a rare start for Jack Taylor.

With cameos off the bench that were the highlight of the Liverpool game I imagine most people will have Nathan Broadhead and Julio Enciso in their line-ups, but who plays on the right? With Chieo Ogbene and Wes Burns both sidelined it’s between Ben Johnson, Omari Hutchinson and Jaden Philogene. My money is on Hutchinson.

Southampton have a number of players back from injury. Ramsdale and Dibling both appear to be fit enough to play some part which is a big boost for them.

A back three of ex-Town loanee James Bree, Bednarek and Harwood-Bellis has been a consistent choice for Juric with Kyle Walker-Peters, Ryan Manning and Yukinari Suguwara vying for the wing-back slots.

Lesley Ugochukwu and Joe Aribo have been preferred in the middle with Flynn Downes return from injury seeing the former Town midfielder having to battle, so far unsuccessfully, to win his place back.

One positive for Southampton ahead of them has been the performances of Matheus Fernandes as the number 10 and he’s likely to continue to start behind Onuachu and Armstrong.

<h1>Prediction </h1>

Southampton are probably poorer now that they were under Russell Martin from what I've seen. At least with Martin they had a playing style the players were familiar with. Juric doesn’t seem to have been able to cut out the individual errors and that’s where the differences could be.

Town put in a good performance against them at St Mary’s but found Ramsdale in his best form. If he’s fully fit he could be in the mood to foil the Blues’ advances again. Southampton will also likely threaten from set pieces, which is something Town have largely dealt well with this season.

I swing between being incredibly confident and then incredibly nervous about this one but I'm backing a close Town win. Let’s roar the boys to a 3-2 victory!

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