Opposition Preview - Norwich City

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 15th December 2023 12:27

“Norwich City we’re coming for you,” has reverberated around Portman Road ever since it first looked likely the Super Blues could achieve promotion from League One. Now the time is finally here.

Norwich flew out of the traps this season with four wins from their first six games and such was their good start they were above Town for the first few weeks.

Then a terrible run of form and injuries saw them plummet down the table with fans turning on then sporting director Stuart Webber and manager David Wagner.

A small turnaround of four wins in six looks to have kept Wagner in a job and the former Huddersfield manager will be in the dugout at Portman Road.

In terms of the history of this fixture, Town have failed to win the last 14 matches between the two sides with their last victory coming all the way back in April 2009.

Kieran McKenna has set a lot of historical records to rest in his time with the Super Blues and will want to add this one to the list as well. So, what is the state of our biggest rivals' squad?

<h1>Goalkeepers</h1>

In goal is a player with Norwich City in his blood, given he's the son of a former Canaries keeper. Angus Gunn is in his second spell at Carrow Road having initally been there on loan from Manchester City back in 2017 before rejoining on a permanent transfer from Southampton in 2021.

Gunn, the son of City legend Bryan, was born in Norwich but his recent form has seen him switch international allegiance to Scotland and he made his debut for them in March of this year.

He recently missed six games with injury and Norwich lost four of those, which shows his value to the team with the Canaries looking much stronger in the last few of games following his return.

Filling in whilst Gunn was injured was former Millwall keeper George Long, who signed on a free from the Lions in the summer.

He was Millwall’s number one last year and kept 12 clean sheets in 36 games and was brought in to provide competition to Gunn. However, his six-game spell in the side this year saw him concede 16 times with a goals prevented rate of –3.76, the sixth-worst in the league. With Gunn back fully fit you’d expect Long to remain on the bench until the FA Cup.

<h1>Defenders</h1>

Norwich have used four different centre-back pairings over the course of the season, but it’s looking like one of their most effective pairing could be one with only one natural centre-back in there.

The men currently in possession of the shirts are Shane Duffy and Kenny McLean. Duffy is a natural centre-back and started the season in there alongside Ben Gibson.

The 31-year-old is back playing regular football again having fallen out of favour at Brighton and then not having the most successful loan spells at either Celtic or Fulham.

Norwich picked him up on a free transfer in the summer and he’s struggled at times in a slow Canaries defence, getting picked apart by both Southampton and Plymouth but has improved in recent games with his ability to win aerial duels a key factor which is keeping him in the team (70% win rate which is equal to that of Cameron Burgess).

Dropping back to play alongside him in the last few games has been Kenny McLean, who has been an ever present for the City side this season playing every minute of every game.

The Scottish international is key to the Canaries ranking second in the league for midfielders on interceptions and duels won. He’s switched in the centre-back role seamlessly, getting the match-winning assist from that position against Bristol City and he adds a bit more pace to the backline than the other options.

His ability to pick that pass and bring the ball out from the back can really get Norwich ticking and for now it looks like he’s set to stay in that position.

The man he’s displaced there is Ben Gibson. Gibson signed for the Canaries back in 2021 from Burnley and has been in and out of the team since his signing. His 14 games in a row at the beginning of the season was the longest run of games he’d had in the side in a row since signing.

When he was in the team he was the main passer of the ball in the backline but only managed one key pass in that time and is perhaps too similar in profile to Duffy.

It was an injury against Sunderland that forced him out of the side and he could struggle to get back in when he’s fit given the form of McLean in there.

Norwich were short on defenders going into this season with Grant Hanley out with a long-term injury. The 32-year-old is one of Norwich’s longest-serving players having been with the club since 2017 and is set to be back in training this week. But it’s very unlikely he’ll feature in the East Anglian derby with his return targeted for the end of December.

They turned to Sunderland defender Danny Batth at the end of the transfer window as a stop-gap signing for their defensive issues. Since joining he’s only made three starts as he also signed with fitness issues.

Batth has managed to get on the scoresheet in that time with a header against Watford. He’s another one in the squad who comes with plenty of experience with 305 Championship appearances across spells with Wolves, Middlesbrough, Stoke and Sunderland.

The fact that McLean is playing ahead of him despite the 33-year-old now being fit feels like more of a tactical switch, but won’t do his confidence any good.

Such were the injury issues at one point that 21-year-old Jaden Warner had to fill in for two games but is now very much back into the U21s having done his best in matches against Blackburn and Cardiff.

There has also largely been consistency in the right-back spot with Jack Stacey starting 18 of the 21 games so far.

The 27-year-old made 97 appearances for Bournemouth without ever really nailing down any position. He was picked up in the summer on a free transfer and has so far proved to be and astute signing.

Stacey has two assists so far and averages one key pass as game as well as winning a large number of tackles and providing solidity as well as attacking thrust down that side.

Norwich lack depth in that area with 19-year-old Kellen Fisher the back-up. He was signed in the summer for a nominal fee from National League side Bromley, where he was a key member of the promotion pushing side that finished seventh.

He impressed in each of his three Carabao Cup outings this season, contributing an assist in the first round and adding another one in his league start against Sunderland.

He’ll hope to continue improving and getting up to speed in the Championship as the season goes on and didn’t look out of place in Wednesday night's 3-1 home victory over Sheffield Wednesday when he got a rare league start.

There is similar consistency on the left-hand side of defence with Dimitrios Giannoulis having started 19 of the 21 games so far this season.

The Greek international joined in 2021 and has had that position locked down since signing, only missing games due to injury and suspensions.

He’s also a key part of Norwich’s press, ranking seventh for tackles, seventh for interceptions and ninth for duels won out of all defenders.

In addition to that, he provides a running outlet with a high number of successful dribbles ranking him ninth in the league for defenders. With the left winger tucking in, he’s a common target for Gabriel Sara’s cross field balls.

With back-up Jacob Lungi Sorensen injured and likely not to be back in training until the end of December, it’s Sam McCallum who has been backing up Giannoulis.

The 23-year-old was another who impressed in Norwich’s brief Carabao Cup run and has made five league appearances off the bench.

He comes with plenty of Championship experience having made 86 appearances across loan spells at Coventry and QPR so is a reliable backup in that area.

<h1>Midfielders</h1>

Norwich’s star player this season has without doubt been Sara. The Brazilian has 13 goal contributions so far, five goals and eight assists, and is the only player close to competing with Leif Davis in terms of key passes.

His heatmap shows just how much influence he has with barely any area of the pitch uncovered and his versatility to operate in all of the midfield positions gives Norwich the flexibility to play in different formations.

He’s very much an all-round midfielder and also doesn’t shy out of a tackles putting them in with high volume and also a high number of interceptions. He’s one of the best all-round midfielders in the league and will need to be marked very closely.

With McLean moving back into the defence, there isn’t really anyone with the same profile to sit in there and break up play alongside Sara.

Against Preston it was Chilean Marcelino Nunez who played in there with him. That was Nunez’s second start in a deeper role having played a bit further forward in his other starts. He’s not a stranger to that role as he played there a lot last season as he made 37 appearances. He looks to be the first-choice there in this new tactical shape.

Another option in that area is the experienced Adam Forshaw. The 32-year-old signed this summer on a free transfer from Leeds as a squad option and has proved to be so up until now with only two starts and four sub appearances.

Like Nunez, he’s also a player who has the attributes to play more advanced or in the deeper midfield role and comes with 69 Premier League appearances in addition to 129 in the Championship.

He’s featured in two play-offs and brings that experience and nous to the squad which can be very important when it comes to seeing out games.

Next we move onto a man who is sure to get a bunch of stick from Town fans if he sees any minutes on the pitch.

It was a sign of the decline in Ipswich’s academy reach when Liam Gibbs decided to make the move across the border and sign for Norwich in 2021. He has now made 50 appearances for the Canaries and is growing into his role in the team.

Wagner’s tactical flexibility has seen him play in a number of roles so far this season. He’s been picked for big games, playing in the number ten role against both Leeds and Leicester and he started as a centre forward against Bristol City.

Last season he played in a deeper role that got him plenty of playing time so he can cover a lot of positions. Numbers-wise he only has one Championship goal and no assists, but will no doubt be fired-up for this one if he gets any time on the pitch.

Moving to the wings and from a poached youngster to one of their own. In Jonathan Rowe the Norwich City academy look to have produced a player capable of breaking into the first team and possibly netting them a decent fee should they need to sell any players.

Rowe started the season on fire, scoring five goals in his first five games and his total is now up to eight. He can play on either side or also as a number ten and can do a bit of everything.

He has high numbers of passes, key passes and successful dribbles and also contributes in the forward areas with tackles, interceptions and duels won with only Jack Clarke having better defensive numbers of the players in those forward positions.

He can play on either side but is more effective on the left with his ability to use the space to cut inside and dribble at Town’s defence, and is another one that will need to be marked very closely.

On the other side it’s likely that one of Christian Fassnacht or Onel Hernandez will start. Self-styled 'Cuban Baller' Hernandez seems to do more of his talking on social media rather than on the pitch with his total of cringey Tik Tok videos considerably higher than his one goal contribution (an assist against Leeds) this season.

Like Rowe, he has the ability to play on both sides but has been preferred on the left so far. He’s struggled to replicate his best Championship season of 2018/19 when he scored eight goals and contributed ten assists with injuries stunting his career.

He spent time on loan at Middlesbrough and Birmingham to reignite his career but is now back in the Norwich squad and will be another one who will likely be fired-up for this game.

By contrast, Fassnacht is a model professional. The Swiss international had spent his whole career in Switzerland before joining Norwich from Young Boys in the summer. His Young Boys record was very impressive with 75 goals and 43 assists in 251 appearances.

He’s found the Championship a bit harder with only three goals in his 20 appearances so far, but provides plenty of running and energy and more width out on the right-hand side.

Two more less used options on the wings are Borja Sainz and Przemyslaw Placheta. Twenty-five-year-old Pole Placheta has had a stop-start career with the Canaries so far having in and out of the team when he first joined and then getting injured very early on into a loan spell with Birmingham last season.

He’s made three starts so far this season with another ten appearances off the bench, averaging 33 minutes per game so far.

Sainz is a new signing this summer joining on a free transfer from Turkish side Giresunspor, where he scored ten goals in 34 appearances.

At 22 he still has plenty of potential having not quite made it over in La Liga. He made his first start of the season against Sheffield Wednesday in midweek and marked it by scoring an absolute beauty, cutting in from the left and curling into the top corner with his right foot to add to the goal he scored off the bench against Fulham in the Carabao Cup.

<h1>Forwards</h1>

One player who won’t be taking to the pitch at Portman Road is Josh Sargent. The American started the season in red hot form with three goals in four games before suffering an ankle injury that has since required surgery.

He’s still only 23 years of age and in his first season in the Championship brought 13 goals as he eventually found his feet having arguably struggled in the Premier League. He’s likely to only continue to improve as he has good physical attributes and game intelligence that allows him to play in a variety of positions.

At the other end of the age spectrum is the experienced Ashley Barnes, who was signed on a free transfer following the expiry of his Burnley contract this summer.

The 34-year-old veteran now has 200 appearances in both the Premier League and Championship, finding the net 81 times (42 Premier League, 39 Championship).

He’s got three of those this season but has more often been deployed behind the central striker. This strategy was effective when Sargent was fit with the two dovetailing nicely, but he’s struggled to hit the same heights since the American’s injury.

He may not be the quickest these days but you know that you’re going to get work-rate and effort from him, and in that number ten role he is good at finding the half-spaces to get a shot away.

Barnes wasn’t the only addition to the forward ranks in the summer with Ui-Jo Hwang joining on loan from Nottingham Forest.

The South Korean international also brings with him plenty of experience with 18 goals in 60 international caps. He’s spent most of his career in Korea but had a very successful spell in France with Girondis Bordeaux netting 29 goals in 98 appearances.

He was just hitting form with three goals in his last five games before he suffered a hamstring injury early on in the game against Watford having just put the Canaries ahead and will likely miss this one.

These injuries have opened the door for homegrown talent Adam Idah and he has certainly taken his chance. His six goals this season put him one behind Jonathan Rowe in the Norwich scoring charts with the two former youth players making up over 40% of the club's total goals scored so far this season.

A lot of Idah's goals have also come from the bench which means he has the tenth-highest scoring frequency with a goal every 157 minutes.

He’ll likely only continue to improve and as a homegrown talent will know the importance of this derby game. If he comes up against Luke Woolfenden things could get tasty.

<h1>The Teams</h1>

An uncharacteristic mistake from Vaclav Hladky against Watford could have seen nerves creep in. Instead, the Czech keeper recovered incredibly well and looked even more comfortable on the ball as Town continued to play out from the back.

With the style that McKenna drills into his players, it’s perhaps a surprise that a mistake that costly has taken so long to come and shows the form that he’s in that it’s taken until match 21. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll continue to start in this one.

With changes to the back four against Watford bringing mixed success, I can see both of the local boys coming back into this one with a four of Harry Clarke, Woolfenden, Cameron Burgess and Leif Davis starting.

Sam Morsy did play against Watford and avoided the dreaded tenth yellow card so will continue in the middle alongside Massimo Luongo.

At the top end of the pitch, there were arguably an unexpected number of changes against Watford with the introduction of Marcus Harness the most interesting as he often dropped deep alongside Morsy and Luongo to form a midfield three at times and match Watford up.

Norwich have switched between a two in the centre and a three but it’s likely that both Nathan Broadhead and Wes Burns will return with one of Omari Hutchinson or Conor Chaplin in the middle. Given the effort put in by Hutchinson on Tuesday night, this will likely be Chaplin with George Hirst continuing at the top of the pitch.

For Norwich, there wasn’t too much rotation on Wednesday so a lot will depend on certain players' fitness.

Gunn should start in goal with Stacey coming back in at right-back alongside Duffy, McLean and Giannoulis.

With the move of McLean deeper, the midfield of Sara and Nunez looks to growing in confidence the more they play together.

In the forward areas, the lack of options should see Barnes and Idah up front and Sainz may have done enough against Sheffield Wednesday to keep his place.

With Rowe only coming back to full fitness, Fassnacht could come in to provide a more stable option down that right-hand side whilst also possessing more work-rate to close down Davis.

<h1>Action Areas</h1>

Town’s winner at Watford came from Morsy pressing high. Norwich like to build and get the ball into Sara from defence with McLean stepping out into midfield quite a lot. This could create openings for with Sara having the ability to pick the killer pass and Sainz looking particularly impressive receiving them last time out.

However, if Ipswich press well from the front (Hirst and Chaplin will look to narrow down McLean’s angles), it could create a counter-attacking opportunity with Norwich tending to push both full-backs up the pitch in those situations, which means Burns could get some joy down the right-hand side.

The Canaries also looked vulnerable from corners against Sheffield Wednesday, conceding the equaliser to a Bailey Cadamarteri header. Could this be a game for Burgess to get off the mark for the season?

A bit similar to Watford on Tuesday night, Norwich sat deep against Sheffield Wednesday and looked to get the ball forward quickly when they broke.

In the forward areas the interplay was nice and Barnes had two great chances in the first half, both of which he missed. He did, however, make up for that by netting in the second half.

Norwich also put a high number of crosses into the box, so it will be interesting to see if Town sit narrower and use the heading prowess of Burgess to win the aerial duels like they did against Watford.

From the noises on social media, you’d think there was a vast gulf between these sides such is the pessimism across the border, but this is a Norwich side that is still full of talent and Championship experience.

By moving McLean back into defence, Wagner looks to have stumbled on a formation and set-up that works and they come into this one off the back of a good set of results, the latest the 3-1 win against Sheffield Wednesday.

It all makes for an intriguing derby day. I’d love to have gone for a big 5-0 win here, but I think this will be a lot tighter and more nerve-jangling than that, I'm afraid.

Still, I can’t predict anything other than a Town win and I do believe we will finally end that awful run and McKenna will end yet another bad record hanging over the club - 2-1 to Town for me. COYB!

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