Premier League Preview: Liverpool

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 16th August 2024 8:42

Portman Road will host Premier League football this Saturday for the first time since a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United on 27th April 2002. There’s some poetry in the fact that Town’s last Premier League opponents (a 5-0 defeat at Anfield) are their first back in the big time.

It will be a Liverpool side in transition with Jürgen Klopp ending his nine years in charge with a Premier League title and a Champions League to his name.

Replacing him is Dutchman Arne Slot, who is making his bow in Premier League football having played and managed exclusively in Holland up until now.

Slot got his first managerial job at SC Cambuur having previously been assistant manager there and even though he was unable to get them promoted back into the Eeridivise, he did take them to the semi-final of the Dutch Cup, beating Ajax along the way.

From there, he took what looked like a step down to be assistant manager at Town's 1981 UEFA Cup final foes AZ Alkmaar but it wasn’t long before he became the main man there too. He averaged 2.11 points per game in his time at AZ, which is impressive for a club that are historically in the top half of the Eeridivise without really challenging for the title. He was sacked for negotiating with Feyenoord whilst still under contract and then went on the assume the manager's job there.

It’s his spell at Feyenoord which will have been the main piece of work that has seen Liverpool come calling. They were consistently in Europe throughout his time there and in 2022/23 he led the club to their first title since 2017 and added a Dutch Cup to that trophy cabinet in his last season in charge.

Those trophies plus his development of an attacking and attractive brand of football leaving him well placed to pick up from Klopp without having to make too many changes.

<h1>Klopps Liverpool v Slots Feyenoord</h1>

The first thing to note in this comparison is that Klopp himself has switched things up in the last couple of seasons. Modifying the role of Trent Alexander-Arnold and changing things a bit in terms of possession following the loss of his hard workers Gini Wijnaldum and Sadio Mane. For the sake of statistics I'm going to compare Klopp’s 23/24 season and Slot’s 23/24 season with Feyenoord.

Let’s start with Slot, his biggest similarity to Klopp is how hard he likes his team to press. His Feyenoord side only allowed 10.3 pass per defensive action (a metric that measures how many passes a team has on the ball before someone tries to tackle them). This allows them to win the ball high up the pitch with 346 high turnovers.

In possession is where the differences to Klopp start to show. Like Klopp, Slot’s Feyenoord did get the ball forward quickly but did it with a lot more passing and movement.

Whereas Klopp’s early success came from long switches of play to get pace in behind, Slot likes to draw the press onto his side and then play through the lines into a double pivot formed of a defensive midfielder and an inverted right-back.

His Feyenoord side last season had the lowest number of touches in their own penalty area last season but also played the lowest number of long balls. He looks to have tweaked that tactic slightly with Liverpool utilising two deep midfielders instead.

Slot likes his players to form triangles wherever possible. This creates a number of ways through to goal. Already in pre-season we have seen Harvey Elliott play some exquisite passes in behind and Salah has been moved back to being a rapid winger on the right-hand side as opposed to a more central forward with Slot liking to exploit the space in behind if teams press too high against them.

<h1>Goalkeepers</h1>

The Liverpool goalkeeping unit is made up of Brazil number one Alisson, Irish number one Caoimhih Kelleher and Vitezlav Jaros with the evergreen Adrian moving on the Real Betis.

The early transfer rumours that were swirling around Kelleher with the player making noises about moving on to become number one and play more seem to have quietened down with the Irishman starting most of Liverpool's pre-season games with Alisson taking extra time off following the Copa America.

Jaros has been promoted from the U21s where he’s been since 2021 when he signed from Dublin side St Patrick's Athletic and has also featured in pre-season.

Alisson is one of the best goalkeepers in the league with 114 clean sheets in his time at Liverpool in 201 appearances. He missed part of last season with a hamstring injury but still performed well keeping 8 clean sheets and making 80 saves in total.

He saved 73.4% of the shots he faced, which was the fourth best in the league behind Andrea Onana, Alphonse Areola and Jordan Pickford. Only Ederson and David Raya conceded fewer goals per 90 minutes than the Brazilian.

If there is one weakness to his game that Ipswich could test it will be balls into the box. The Liverpool stopper only claimed 4.3% of crosses that came into his box last season.

<h1>Defence</h1>

Liverpool have a very strong defensive unit with Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson and Virgil Van Dijk the standouts. The big problem with the Liverpool defence last season was fitness, with every single player in the backline missing games through injury. This gave chances to Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah. Both impressed in the matches they played but could find chances limited again with the return to fitness of the first-teamers.

Despite only making 25 starts, Alexander-Arnold still made 205 progressive passes last season with Jurgen Klopp experimenting with having him drift inside in possession to fill the midfield. Gareth Southgate went a step further in the Euros by playing him as an out and out midfielder but despite his unmatched passing range he seemed to lack the composure and the ability to take the ball on the half-turn. It seems unlikely that new manager Slot will continue that experiment.

The other stat that backs that up is the fact that he lost possession 60 times last season, the most out of all defenders in the league, so if he starts expect Ipswich focus their press on Liverpool’s right-hand side.

On the opposite side, Robertson’s appearances were even more limited last season, just 18 starts. Despite his limited game time he was still able to notch up 63 progressive carries and provide Liverpool much need width down the left-hand side. He finished last season with two goals in his last three games and has also impressed in Scotland’s brief Euros appearance.

Van Dijk is in his prime at 32 years of age and captain of both club and country. He is the best one-on-one defenders in the league and rarely misses a tackle. His tackle win percentage of 85.7% was the highest in the league last season and that was backed up by high numbers of blocks, clearances and interceptions. He is also extremely comfortable on the ball, making 200 progressive passes and also has a habit of chipping in with important goals.

The big question mark will be who plays alongside him. Joel Matip was the experienced option but has been released having missed the majority of last season with a cruciate ligament injury which will take time to recover from.

Ibrahim Konate spent all of last season managing a recurring thigh issue and tends to be brought in to cover pacy forward players, a similar tactic to the one Kieran McKenna used bringing George Edmundson in for certain games that suited his skillset last year. With Matip and no defensive reinforcements in the building yet, Konate will be hoping for more game time this year.

My money however would be on the versatile Joe Gomez pushing for starts in that position. Gomez made 51 appearances for Liverpool across all competitions last season covering right-back, left-back and even filling in as a deep lying midfielder on a few occasions. That versatility and his good form earned him an England call-up for the Euro’ but he didn’t manage to get any minutes on the pitch.

His favoured position is at centre-back and historically he has played most of his games there. He’ll hope to make a claim for a regular berth there from the start of the season. He is still yet to score a professional goal across 224 appearances with Liverpool and 24 with Charlton. Let’s hope that doesn’t finally come at Portman Road!

The other realistic option is Quansah, who has followed in the footsteps of Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams as Liverpool youngsters who have stepped in during an injury crisis. Those two never really forced a case for continued inclusion once the senior players regained fitness but Quansah will hope that that isn’t the case for him.

The 21-year-old will have done his chance no harm with two goals in the last two league games against Aston Villa and Wolves. He’s also looked calm and composed on the ball and played with a confidence in his 17 matches last season that give me the impression that he does have a better chance of forcing his way into getting regular game time, possibly at the expense of Konate.

The other defensive player to get Premier League minutes last year were Conor Bradley, Kostas Tsimikas and a brief cameo for Owen Beck in between loan spells at Dundee.

Bradley and Tsimikas have featured regularly throughout pre-season with both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson missing due to the Euros and both have impressed. Bradley with his underlapping runs and Tsimikas, who could suit the more defensive left-back role that Slot seems to be playing with. It wouldn’t surprise me if at least one, if not both, started against Ipswich.

<h1>Midfield</h1>

Last season Liverpool went through a midfield overhaul. Fabinho, Jordan Henderson, Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and James Milner all departed and were replaced by Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch, Wataru Endo and the Dominic Szoboszlai. Those four, complemented by Englishmen Curtis Jones and Harvey Elliott were the players that made up Klopp's midfield three and will likely continue to do so under Slot.

Of those players it was Mac Allister who played the most games. The 25-year-old Argentinian didn’t quite replicate his form that saw him net ten times for Brighton in 2022/23 but did still manage five goals and five assists.

Some of this was due to the fact that at times he was asked to fill a deeper more defensive role. Of all of Liverpool's midfielders he made the most tackles, the most interceptions but also made the most progressive passes. Figuring out where he is at his most effective will be one of the first things on Slot’s to-do list.

Dominik Szoboszlai was Liverpool’s most expensive signing last summer and like Mac Allister also didn’t quite hit the form of eight goals and six assists in the 2022/23 season for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga that saw Liverpool spend £60 million on him. He finished the season with just three goals and two assists.

Similar to Mac Allister, he has had to adapt to a new system playing deeper in a more structured midfield three compared to Leipzig where he was given more attacking freedom to drift around the pitch and try and influence games.

One change that Slot could make is to give him that freedom again in some games by switching to a 4-2-3-1 and leaving the 23-year-old Hungarian higher while the other two midfielders sit and hold.

Gravenberch was clearly signed as one for the future and only made 12 appearances last season but will be a player that Slot will know a lot about having faced him a number of times while Gravenberch was at title winning Ajax. In terms of style, he’s probably been earmarked as the long-term successor to Wijnaldum, despite his 6ft 2in frame he’s very comfortable with the ball at his feet and in only 12 starts completed 39 progressive carries and managed 42 touches in the opposition penalty area.

Wataru Endo was a bit of an unsung hero last season. Looking at his stats he doesn’t really excel in many areas, he’s not a tough tackler, he’s not a pass master and he’s not a tricky dribbler.

What he does bring is the workrate that allows him to provide cover for the more attacking players in the midfield unit to flourish and do their job. Mac Allister was the main man to benefit from the extra cover that Endo provides as it allowed him to play in a slightly more advanced role in that midfield.

Curtis Jones is another player who doesn’t stand out in terms of numbers but was someone who was favoured by Klopp for his workrate in big games. If everyone else in the midfield unit stays fit this season then I think he could find his game time limited and there could even be a potential loan move on the cards. The form of Harvey Elliott in a deeper role will have dropped him even further down the pecking order.

It’s Elliott who I’m going to pinpoint as Liverpool’s biggest midfield threat for this one. Due to injuries, he was first trialed in central midfield against Leeds in 2022 but it’s towards the back end of last season that he’s really grown into that role with a goal and three assists in his last three games.

He’s been on the radar as a future world talent and this could be the season where he adds consistent game time and performances to his undoubted potential.

His best attribute is his dribbling and at times the ball appears to be glued to his feet. He was only dispossessed nine times in his time on the pitch last season and contributed three goals and six assists in his limited minutes. He’s comfortable receiving the ball with his back to goal and spinning defenders and has that X-factor that can win games.

Stefan Bajetic, James McConnell and Bobby Clark also got Premier League minutes last season but loans look most likely for the trio.

Fabio Carvalho has returned to the club following his half-season loan at Hull and has impressed in pre-season but has since departed on a permanent deal to Brentford.

<h1>Forwards</h1>

If there was one word to describe Liverpool’s attackers last season it is profligate. Only Diogo Jota outperformed his xG (expected goals) by 4.7. Cody Gakpo (-1) Luis Diaz (-3.9), Mohamed Salah (-3.2) and Darwin Nunez (-5.3) all under-performed.

That is not to say that they are not an incredibly talented set of forwards. The five mentioned above contributed to 55 goals and 31 assists between them. Salah led the way on (18G, 10A) followed by Nunez (11G, 8 A), Jota (10G, 3A), Diaz (8G, 5A) and Gakpo (8G, 5A)

Now 32, it was Salah’s lowest goal return in a Liverpool shirt and transfer rumours are still swirling around whether he’ll still be at the club when the transfer window closes. Despite his finishing being more miss than hit, the majority of Liverpool’s play still goes through the Egyptian. He received the most progressive passes of all of the front players and made 98 progressive carries last season, while 43.9% of his shots were on target and even though a tiny bit of pace may have gone, his left foot is still unerring.

Nunez is now coming into his third season in a red shirt. Only Dominic Calvert Lewin and Brennan Johnson underperformed their xG by more than Nunez which means things could go one of two ways. The Premier League could eat him up and spit him out with him never finding the scoring form that saw him score 26 in 28 for Benfica or he could catch fire and finally find his shooting boots to become a 20-goal-a-season striker.

My money is on the latter, given the positions he gets himself in. He makes excellent runs in behind and has pace and strength and everything that makes a number nine that is capable of stretching defence’s and creating space for the players in behind him.

His competition for the central spot will be Jota, who is a very different type of forward. He was signed primarily as a left winger but his clinical finishing has seen him make more appearances centrally since the injury and release of Roberto Firmino.

He’s good with both feet and with his head and has a habit of finding himself in the right place at the right time which is a key attribute for all good strikers.

Diaz provides similar attributes to Salah from the other side of the pitch. Naturally right-footed he’s comfortable with the ball at his feet, cutting inside as Robertson overlaps. His 137 progressive carries were the seventh-highest in the league last season and he’s also the member of frontline who is the best at instigating the high press with his speed and energy.

His one and only pre-season game saw him net twice and he’ll need to be watched carefully given Ipswich struggled against left wingers last season.

That leaves Cody Gakpo as the biggest conundrum for Slot to solve. The young Dutchman played most of his football on the left wing for PSV Eindhoven but with Luis Diaz and Jota blocking his way there for Liverpool he’s featured more as a centre forward and even in midfield for a couple of games last season, albeit those were off the bench.

In terms of youngsters, Ben Doak, Jayden Danns and Kaide Gordon all got Premier League minutes last season. Danns netted a brace against Southampton in the FA Cup but it’s Doak that I think could be the hottest prospect and I expect him to leave on loan to a League One side and have a very successful season.

<h1>Pre-season</h1>

Liverpool have spent their pre-season over in America, as is common for a lot of the big clubs these days, but a whole host of their squad have been late to return as they have been given extended holidays following the Euros and the Copa America.

This has meant Liverpool have been without Alisson, Alexander -Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Mac Allister, Gakpo, Diaz and Nunez for the majority of games.

Because of this Slot operated with two false nines against Real Betis but has confirmed that this won’t be his usual tactic when he has his strikers fit again.

<h1>The Teams</h1>

It was a return to the 3-4-2-1 formation that hadn’t been seen since League One days in the pre-season friendly against Nice. Given how flexible formations are these days that wasn’t a massive departure from the norm with the right centre-back still a bit of a hybrid and Ben Johnson at right wing-back still being tasked with playing high and wide.

What having Johnson in there does, however, is provides someone who knows the right-back role in depth and has the engine and appetite (something Wes Burns is occasionally lacking) to get back and defend.

As most people are guessing, this looks like the blueprint for how McKenna will set up for the division's tougher opposition. That means that Aro Muric, Johnson, Axel Tuanzebe and Leif Davis are almost certain starters against Liverpool.

The other central defensive pair in with them is up in the air with George Edmundson, Cameron Burgess, Luke Woolfenden and Jacob Greaves having all shared the pre-season minutes. Edmundson and Burgess started against Nice but I think it will be the other pair taking to the pitch against Liverpool.

In midfield Sam Morsy is nailed on but Jack Taylor has made a very good case to start alongside him with his pre-season performances. I think Jack Taylor will get more starts there in future but for this one I'm going with Massimo Luongo as he offers more defensively and that role will be tasked with covering one of the best wingers in world football.

At the top of the pitch, I think it will be as you were against Nice. Liam Delap is already showing his value with excellent close ball control and some driving runs, Omari Hutchinson has that X-factor that can turn draws into wins and Marcus Harness has excelled in pre-season. In a game where Town won’t have as much of the ball, his pressing and work rate as well as his good ball retention could be very useful in this one.

Liverpool finished pre-season with two games in one day on Sunday with all of the Euro internationals returning and split across the two squads. I’d hazard a guess that the team that beat Sevilla could be close to the starting line up with maybe a couple of changes.

<h1>Action Areas</h1>

Salah has featured throughout pre-season and is looking fit and sharp. Davis will have to track his runs in behind that are even more of a feature under Slot as Liverpool look to bait the press and keep their wingers high and wide.

Elliott is another player who Town will need to watch carefully. Slot has given him a free role in the midfield and he is flourishing with a couple of excellent assists in pre-season against Arsenal.

This is where I think Jacob Greaves attributes will add something to the backline. Greaves likes to press and win the ball high and will need to do that where Elliott drops into the pockets of space which will leave Luke Woolfenden covering the main strikers. If Elliott doesn’t play it could well be Szoboszlai playing in that role.

<h1>Prediction</h1>

Portman Road will be rocking for the return of Premier League football. A home crowd can give players the energy to feed off of and I don’t think this will be an absolute hammering. That said, Town will definitely have to suffer against some elite players. Any thoughts that it would take the Liverpool players to adjust to Slot’s methods seem unfounded after an impressive pre-season. I’m going to go for a respectable 2-1 defeat.

More blogs by ad_wilkin: