Premier League Preview: Manchester City

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 23rd August 2024 11:14

Pep Guardiola has managed 304 Premier League matches. He’s lost 38 of them. His City side average 2.36 points per game (Kieran McKenna’s Town averaged 2.01 in their last two seasons).

That is the scale of the task that Town face on their first away day of the season to the Etihad Stadium. Aston Villa, Arsenal and Wolves were the only teams to beat them last season and no one left the Etihad with three points. The last team to do that was Brentford in November 2022. If Town win here then I expect the statue of McKenna to immediately be commissioned, no forget that, name the whole stadium after him.

<h1>Goalkeepers </h1>

Town will face their second Brazilian goalkeeper in as many games. For the Brazil national team Ederson is very much the second choice with only 25 caps to Liverpool’s Alisson’s 65. However, there is not very much between them at all.

Ederson conceded the second-least goals per 90 minutes last season, letting in just 0.87 per game behind Arsenal’s David Raya and also did well in terms of goal prevention, preventing 1.2 more goals that expected.

On pure save numbers, he only made 56, which shows how hard it is to even get shots away against Man City, but the biggest part about being a goalkeeper for a top team is the ability to stay switched on and make big saves when called upon.

Manchester City’s back-up keeper Stefan Ortega is arguably the best back-up in the league and had more of an opportunity to show it last season with Ederson missing six Premier League games. Ortega also impressed enough to start all of the games in the FA Cup.

He’s just as composed with his feet as Ederson and prevented two more goals that would have been expected from the shots, he faced, proving he’s equally adept with his hands.

It’s a surprise that he hasn’t looked to move on for more regular football but he recently signed a fresh deal to keep him at the Etihad until 2026 citing Pep’s loyalty as a key factor. There are even rumours he could take the number one spot if a big money move comes in from Saudi Arabia for Ederson.

<h1>Defence</h1>

City had a pretty stable defensive unit last season and most of the time it was five into four positions. John Stones’s hip injury saw him miss the start of the season and struggle to reclaim his place.

Man City and England captain Kyle Walker played the most matches with the right-back bringing a profile that is unique to the position. He ranks in the top ten in the league for progressive passes and progressive carries for defenders, but his best attribute is his pace and ability to recover back from high up the pitch, slow down attacks and make last ditch tackles.

With Stones out injured, it was Manuel Akanji who stepped in to fill the role of the central defender who drifts further forward to support Rodri in midfield when City were in possession, completing 93.7% of his passes of which 148 were progressive passes.

If Akanji is the most progressive of the centre-halves then Portuguese international Ruben Dias is the anchor. He doesn’t miss many tackles with a success rate of 73.1% and made the most passes and the most progressive passes out of the whole City backline. At 27 years of age, he is reaching the peak of his career and looked imperious in Portugals Euros campaign.

In a throwback Pep has occasionally selected a back four contain four natural ‘centre-halves’. Such is the modern game that defenders now have to be versatile and Nathan Ake is certainly that.

Left-footed, he can fill in as either a centre-back or a left-back and is adept in both roles. He’s another that had a good Euros with the Dutch looking calm and composed in their group before being unlucky to be knocked out by England.

Town fans will know Josko Gvardiol well. He featured for RB Leipzig last summer in the Innsbruck Cup and was comfortably beaten in the air as George Hirst headed home above him at the back post. Since then, he has got a big money move to City and been converted into a flying left-back by Guardiola.

This has seen a return of four goals and an assist, including a brace in the 4-0 victory over Fulham towards the end of last season. In fact, all of his goal contributions came from April onwards as his development accelerated and he grew more and more comfortable in his new role. He will certainly be a different proposition to the last time Town faced him.

The final player to mention in this defensive unit is Rico Lewis, who is listed as a right-back but in his fledgling career has already player at left-back, defensive midfield, central midfield, right midfield and attacking midfield.

He’s still only 19 years of age and has a big future ahead of him, bringing qualities that saw him fill in for Stones when he was injured and become the player to drift into midfield in possession.

He’s made 50 appearances for City and his form also saw him win his one and only England cap in November 2023 in a European qualifier against North Macedonia.

With Cole Palmer moving on and having success at Chelsea, Pep will know that he may have to start integrating the young English talent that he has at his disposal a bit more in the coming season.

<h1>Midfielders</h1>

More often the not, City play with a single pivot in midfield given how dominant they are in possession. That man is Rodri and his stats for last season were remarkable.

He completed 92% of his passes of which he made 3,365, over 300 passes more than the next highest in the league (Brighton’s Lewis Dunk). He also beat Martin Odegaard to the most progressive passes with 376 putting him top of that metric, as well as scoring eight goals and assisting nine.

He’s become indispensable for both club and country as the best modern-day possession-based anchor man in football, more than adequately filling the boots left by Fernandinho for club and Sergio Busquets for country.

On some occasions Pep opts for more cover in the midfield area and Mateo Kovacic was signed for that very scenario. The 30-year-old Croatian gives Rodri the freedom to arrive late into the box to score the amount of goals he has whilst also being able to play a bit further forward if needed.

His career has seen him play for Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Chelsea and now City and in each he is a valuable squad player who allows other players to excel rather than being a world beater himself.

You could end the list of midfielders there at those two based on how attacking Man City play, but I'm also going to included Kevin De Bruyne and Matheus Nunes in list as they can and have previously played deeper on occasion.

Starting with De Bruyne, who despite an injury hit season, only making 18 appearances, still managed four goals and ten assists. His career Manchester City record reads 382 appearances, 102 goals, 170 assists. With Pep’s switch to playing an attacking five in lots of games, he’s been given even more freedom to play further up the pitch.

Nunes was an interesting signing and has struggled to make much impact after an impressive season with Wolves in the previous season. Of his 19 Premier League appearances only nine were starts and similar to Lewis he’s mainly used for his versatility as he’s able to play as a six and eight or a ten.

Someone who looks set to stay around this season is James McAtee with Guardiola stating recently, "I don’t want to loan him and I don’t want to sell him, because I need him in particular situations.”

McAtee spent last season on loan at Sheffield United which will have helped his development despite their struggles. He started 20 games for the Blades scoring three goals and along with Oscar Bobb will look to fill the shoes of Julian Alvarez whilst also making up the home-grown complement in City’s squad. Whether that changes following the return of Ilkay Gundogan on a free transfer from Barcelona is still an unknown.

<h1>Forwards </h1>

City’s threat comes from everywhere and they have so many different profiles of attacking player.

Let’s start this round up with Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden who was the talk of the Euros for playing out of position.

This is actually a bit of a misnomer as he often played on the left-hand side of a front three for Manchester City. The difference there was that Guardiola converted Gvardiol into a naturally left-footed attacking left-back that allowed Foden to drift into the inside pockets and have City playing with two tens, much like Kieran McKenna does with Nathan Broadhead and Conor Chaplin.

Numbers-wise, Foden had never scored more than 11 goals before last season's return of 19. He also chipped in with eight assists. What’s most impressive was how clinical his finishing was. He exceeded his expected goals by 8.7 which was by far the highest in the league. 45.7% of his shots were on target, he completed 85.5% of his passes and he was the man for the big moment securing the Premier League title with two excellent goals in the final game of the season against West Ham.

Foden played the most matches of all of the forwards and I was quite surprised to see Julian Alvarez in second place with 31 starts and 36 appearances in total.

Originally signed to provide competition and cover to Erling Haaland, he still managed to score nine goals in just 13 starts and a number of sub appearances in his debut campaign. Last season, he took his game to the next level by not only filling in for Haaland when he was injured but playing a number of games in a slightly deep role in behind Haaland.

That saw a return of 11 goals and nine assists and some outstanding performances in the Champions League. He’s been sold to Atletico Madrid for a considerable profit this summer, so the goalscoring load will go back on to City’s main man.

This brings us on to football's version of a cheat code. Erling Haaland. Still only 23 years of age, he has 90 goals in 98 appearances for Manchester City. That is in line with his performances at other clubs.

He has consistently averaged around a goal per game across his entire career to date. When he’s on it he’s unstoppable. He scored five in the FA Cup against Luton and four in the league against Wolves.

That’s not to say he’s infallible. He fired blanks against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Wolves. City failed to win any of those games.

He was interestingly –2.2 goals away from his expected goals metric and seven of his Premier League goals were penalties. Cut off his service and he doesn’t have the profile to create something out of nothing himself, but if you don’t he’ll punish you.

Where City have sometimes struggled in the past was when slick passing just wasn’t cutting it. Teams that sat back in a low block and looked to counter could sneak wins. Pep’s answer to that last summer was the signing of Jeremy Doku.

The 22-year-old Belgian is as direct as they come. Favoured out on the left, his pace and quick feet are enough to bamboozle even the best of defenders. His 218 progressive carries were a league high and saw him achieve eight assists in just 18 starts.

With only three goals scored there is still room for improvement in a player who is still quite raw but has already started to show his talents under Pep.

Luis Sinisterra, Crysencio Summerville and Stephy Mavididi all caused Town problems on that side of the pitch last season. Doku is a level up on that so whoever is in that right-back spot could well have their work cut out.

City’s most versatile forward is Bernardo Silva. The diminutive Portuguese largely features on the right-hand side of Man City’s five-man attack. He is favoured by Pep given his ability on the ball, able to play deeper in central midfield if needed.

His stats compare very similarly to Foden’s and despite not hitting Foden’s numbers last season still contributed with some important goals at important times including the winner in the FA Cup.

He knows just when to arrive in the box to get on the end of the balls in and ended up with six goals and nine assists last season. His footballing intelligence is up there with the best and he often plays a free role which makes him very hard to pick up when defending.

All of that talent has left Jack Grealish on the margins this season, following a 2022/23 where it looked like he was finally able to balance Pep’s rigid instructions with the attacking flair that made him one of the most exciting players in the Premier League during his time at Aston Villa.

His lack of game time saw him miss out on a place in the Euros squad with only ten league starts and it could be seen as time for both parties to move on. His impressive pre-season in the States has put him in contention but he missed the Chelsea match with a minor niggle. Unfortunately for Town fans Pep seems to think he’ll be back in time for this weekend.

Along with Lewis, Man City’s other young talent trying to break into the squad is Norwegian Bobb. The 20-year-old is already in the Norway international set-up with two goals in eight appearances and has been dipped into the City side last season as he gains experience.

With players away he has started on the right-hand side of the City attack throughout pre-season including in the Charity Shield where he assisted Silva for City’s equaliser.

He also scored against Chelsea and Celtic is City’s pre-season tour of the United States which will have done his chances of pushing for a starting place this season no harm. Alas those prospects were ended by a broken leg in training and he now looks to be out until at least November.

The final player to mention is a new signing. Brazilian international Savinho joined from French side Troyes this summer off the back of a successful loan spell with Girona in La Liga. He made 19 goal contributions (nine goals, ten assists) in 37 appearances playing largely as a regular winger on the left hand side.

He was one of the star players in La Liga, topping the charts for both progressive carries (181) and progressive receives (372) whilst also being clinical enough to exceed his xG by 2.9. Pep started out with him on the left against Chelsea but the switch to the right-wing mid-way through the first half actually saw him have far more of an impact. He was taken off at half-time in that one with knee issues. That’s a recurring niggle rather than a big injury so there is every chance he could still feature this weekend.

<h1>The Teams </h1>

Foden, Walker and Stones all returned to the bench following their Euro exploits, with Foden getting 45 minutes off of the bench. Rodri looks set to miss out completely having still not trained with the team. Whether any of them start remains to be seen. I think they may well be unchanged from the game against Chelsea.

For Town, there looks likely to be at least one enforced change with Wes Burns withdrawn with what looks to be another hamstring injury. I think Ben Johnson will be his replacement due to the defensive work that Town will need to do against this City side.

I also think Sammie Szmodics will make his full debut with Omari Hutchinson moving over to play as the right sided ten.

One thing that Town lacked in the second half in particular was legs in midfield. Sam Morsy and Massimo Luongo were phenomenal in the first half, flying into tackles and covering Liverpool’s runs but struggled a bit in the second half. To add a bit more energy into that midfield I think we’ll also see new signing Jens Cajuste thrown straight into the action.

The final change could be the return of Aro Muric in goal depending on his injury situation. Christian Walton deputised admirably, claiming at the feet of Luis Diaz on one occasion and making three smart saves. He finished with a positive goals prevented metric but I do think Town lost a bit of their ability to pass out from the back.

<h1>Action Areas </h1>

Against Chelsea, Lewis was City’s key man to watch. Listed on the teamsheet as a right-back, he was actually playing more as a right-sided central midfielder taking up spaces in midfield to form a lop-sided double pivot in the midfield with Kovacic, whilst also making underlapping runs into the box to draw defenders away from City’s wingers who stayed wide.

This gave De Bruyne a lot of space on the left and both the Belgian and Silva will be given the reign to float about and try and find space.

Whether Town go man to man or chose to sit deep in defensive banks remains to be seen. I think it will be a bit of a hybrid. The wide central defenders will likely be asked to track City’s tens (likely De Bruyne and Silva) but will also need to know when to hang back and double up with the wing-backs on Doku and Savinho.

With Lewis floating forward, it will leave a back three for Man City all of Town’s front three will likely be asked to press them as a high turnover of the ball will be Town’s best chance at getting in on goal.

<h1>Prediction </h1>

The first half against Liverpool was impeccably executed but the class eventually broke through in the second half. That was at a packed out, frenetic Portman Road. Achieving that or even better at the Etihad seems unlikely. I’m expecting a similarly competitive first half but can’t see anything but a City win in this one.

I also think that Town’s Premier League goal duck may have to wait until Fulham as I'm going for a 3-0 defeat in this one.

More blogs by ad_wilkin: