Premier League Preview: Manchester City

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 18th January 2025 15:00

The Premier League Champions visit Portman Road sat in a lowly sixth place position following a November and December spell where they lost to Tottenham (twice), Bournemouth, Sporting Lisbon, Brighton, Liverpool, Juventus, Manchester United and Aston Villa.

They have managed to turn the tide a bit in recent weeks with victories over Leicester and West Ham as well as an 8-0 hammering of Salford in the FA Cup, but Wednesday night’s 2-2 draw with Brentford showed signs of their vulnerabilities as they once again threw away a two-goal lead.

Pep Guardiola’s side have already lost more points from winning positions this season than in any other full season he has been in charge.

<h1>Last Time Out (Manchester City 4-1 Ipswich Town) </h1>

The trip to the Etihad got off to the best possible start from Town, Omari Hutchinson brought the ball out from the back as City allowed him time and space to run, he found Ben Johnson’s underlapping run and the wing-back played a perfectly weighted ball into Sam Szmodics, who was on the shoulder of the defenders and expertly beat the offside trap before firing through Ederson and seeing the ball trickle over the line for Town’s first Premier League goal of the season.

City were back in the game within five minutes as Savinho dribbled down the right. Leif Davis was slow to get out to close him down and made an attempt to win the ball as the Brazilian attempted to jink past him on the edge of the box

There was the slightest of contacts, but for some bizarre reason referee Sam Allison, who saw nothing wrong with the challenge in real time, was sent to the screen and awarded a harsh penalty which Erling Haaland calmly side-footed in.

This begun a Town collapse. Just two minutes later Aro Muric dwelt on the ball for too long and was robbed by that man Savinho again, he tried to scramble it back but the tricky winger managed to lay it off to Kevin De Bruyne, who just had to side foot into an empty net.

Another two minutes on, Town had conceded again. A hopeful ball clipped over the top from De Bruyne saw Muric completely misread the bounce. Haaland had already escaped the attentions of Luke Woolfenden and Jacob Greaves and just had to head it round the Town keeper and slide into an empty net for 3-1.

Rico Lewis and De Bruyne then both had attempts that hit the bar before Town had a penalty shout of their own. It was a reverse of the earlier incident with Savinho clattering into Leif Davis, getting nowhere near the ball but inexplicably it wasn’t given on the field or by VAR.

City put the game fully to bed as Jack Taylor was unable to clear the ball with a couple of attempts and it fell nicely to Haaland on the edge of the box for him to fire in from range for his hat-trick.

City’s dominance at the Etihad was pronounced. Town only had one shot, which in fairness they did make count. They generated just 0.3 xG with only the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal seeing Town create less threat on goal.

From a goalkeeping perspective, it was one of only five games where Town conceded more than they should have done according to the stats at -0.5. They conceded four goals in the end, two which were errors from Muric but the Kosovan did make one great save, his only one of the game, to deny Haaland in the 64th minute.

Town were able to mix things up in terms of distribution from the keeper as City allowed them some time on the ball at the back. The Blues didn’t have much of the ball with just 25% possession. Only Chelsea had more of the ball in their match, limiting Town to 24%.

The fact that City had Town pinned in is shown by the fact that they gained the least progressive distance gained via passing, having just 68 medium length passes completed and just 13 long passes completed out of 40 attempted, the second-lowest long pass completion rate Town have had all season.

Town didn’t have much success dribbling either with only 2/8 take-ons completed, a success rate of 25% which is still Town’s lowest of the season. They also made the least progressive distance from carrying at just 304 yards.

Defensively was a bit more solid. Sixteen blocks, 13 of which were blocked passes and 10 interceptions were both high numbers as was 59.3% of aerial duels won, the caveat to that one is City only launched the ball long seven times in total.

For City, interestingly for a team used to battering teams in previous seasons, four goals is the most they’ve scored in a Premier League game this season with their recent 4-1 win against West Ham and their 3-0 success against Nottingham Forest in December the other two games that equal that winning margin.

The Town match was their highest xG created and the second-highest shot conversion ratio and also the only penalty they’ve been awarded all season.

Statistically it was their worst goalkeeping performance but only having one shot to deal with plays a factor in that. Town opted to not press high and eight yards is the second shortest average goal-kick length City have had.

Interestingly six of their eight games with the highest average goal kick lengths have resulted in wins with only two in eight of their shortest ones returning the same result.

They completed more passes against Town than against any other team they’ve played and only had higher possession against Wolves and Arsenal. The 15 fouls they won was also a season high with the refereeing performance being questionably biased in their favour from my memory, not least when Guardiola disrupted play by entering the pitch and didn’t receive a caution.

<h1>Players to watch </h1>

<b>Kevin De Bruyne </b>

Kevin De Bruyne missed a chunk of time in the middle of the first half of the season but returned to the City team at the beginning of November and has been playing consistently since then. He has back-to-back assists in his last two games, against West Ham and Brentford and his 7.09 shot creating actions per 90 is the highest in the league.

His 111 touches in the previous match against Ipswich are the highest he’s made all season and only Ruben Dias and Manuel Akanji had more of the ball in that one.

He’s been playing as a number 10 but there’s more to his positioning than that as he can drift left or right to deliver balls from the wingas he did for Phil Foden’s opener against Brentford. It will be interesting to see if Town give him the same amount of space at Portman Road as they did at the Etihad.

<b>Savinho </b>

The summer signing has been one of City’s best player this season. He has eight assists in all competitions but only one goal to his name, in the recent 2-0 victory over Leicester.

His 6.25 shot creating actions per 90 put him third highest in the league. It was his dribbling ability that caused Town trouble at the Etihad and won City their penalty, a trick he repeated against Everton in December so keeping him from driving into the box should be Town’s top priority.

<b>Phil Foden </b>

Foden didn’t play the reverse fixture as he was still resting following the Euros but he’s now back and looks like he’s finding the form that saw him score 19 goals and assist eight last season.

His tally for this year is four and one respectively but all of those goals have come since 21st December with his brace against Brentford being his latest. The majority have come with him playing in his favoured position on the right-hand side of a front four where he can cut inside onto his left-foot.

<h1>City’s Last Game (Brentford 2-2 Manchester City) </h1>

City visited the Gtech Community Stadium on the back of three straight wins and edged the first half without creating too many clear-cut chances. The second half was the complete opposite, Brentford flew out of the traps and were creating the better opportunities before City’s opener came against the run of play.

Savinho cut inside and found De Bruyne in space on the right-hand side. The Belgian whipped an exquisite cross into the box that Foden just guided gently past Marc Flekken into the net. It was a goal that highlights the individual quality of City’s players and their ability to create something out of nothing.

Yoan Wissa then had a chance cleared off the line at the other end as Mbeumo had rounded goalkeeper Stefan Ortega but it was City who struck again, Savinho turning Mats Roerslev and driving into space down the left. His firmly struck effort was straight at Flekken but was so powerful that the keeper couldn’t get his hands up in time and it just bounced off him into the path of that man Foden again who made no mistake with his finish.

Brentford were undeterred and pulled one back when it was looking like City would comfortably close the game out. Mikael Damsgaard clipped a ball to the far post which was knocked back in to the waiting Wissa who got the ball out of his feet, sold Ortega a dummy and slammed high into the net.

It was another cross that produced the equaliser, Keane Lewis-Potter finding himself out on the right wing, cutting back onto his left foot and delivering a ball that was equally as good as De Bruyne’s for City’s first, right onto the head of Christian Norgaard.

Brentford almost won it right at the end with Nathan Ake having to make another goal-line clearance to prevent Mbeumo’s effort that may or may not have been goalbound.

Brentford ended the match with more xG and competed and stayed close to City in all of the other stats showing that in the current state this City side are in, you can have a go at them and get results.

<h1>January Business </h1>

There are no new signings officially through the door at City yet but the big news is a new 10-year contract for Erling Haaland signifying yet another financial fair play loophole that City are utilising.

In terms of players that they have been linked with, two are young defenders Abudokir Khusanov (20) currently a regular at RC Lens and Vitor Reis (19) who is with Brazilian side Palmeiras. The other two are versatile Juventus midfielder Andrea Cambiaso and Eintracht Frankfurt striker Omar Marmoush, a 25-year-old Egyptian who currently has 15 goals and nine assists in just 17 Bundelsiga games.

<h1>The Teams </h1>

This is Town’s shortest turnaround between games this season and also my shortest turn around to get one of these blogs out so apologies if it’s lacking some of the usual depth. It’s also one of the hardest selection choices now. Does Ben Godfrey now come in? I think so. I was surprised he didn’t start against Brighton but maybe Kieran McKenna was trying to manage his minutes.

Sam Morsy will be back in midfield, with Kalvin Phillips unable to play against his parent club, alongside Jens Cajuste. Hopefully he’ll be able to provide a bit more passing quality in that area with Brighton really shutting Town’s midfield down on Thursday night.

At the top end Jaden Philogene is finally in the building. Could McKenna throw him in from the start? Again, that wouldn’t surprise me.

In the other spot Nathan Broadhead has been terrific so could keep his space. I was hoping Jack Clarke would start against Brighton to give him momentum following a good showing in the FA Cup but it was Omari Hutchinson who came back in instead. In hindsight that looked like a mistake as he didn’t look sharp and often overran the ball. I wouldn’t risk him for this one and give him extra rest so that he’s fresh for Liverpool.

For City it’s even harder to tell. Rodri, Ruben Dias and John Stones are all injured, whilst Kyle Walker is out of the squad as he pushes for a move to Italy. Ederson could make a return from injury but Ortega has deputised well in his absence so may maintain his place as he did at Brentford.

City also have a Champions League tie against Paris Saint-Germain to contend with on Wednesday night so we could see the likes of Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Rico Lewis or Ilkay Gundogan given starts.

<h1>Prediction </h1>

As much press as there has been about how this is a blip for City, I don’t think it’s any more than that. When you look at the games they lost in their poor spell, the one to Manchester United is arguably the worst defeat but anything can happen in a derby game.

Bournemouth and Brighton are both excellent teams and interestingly both sides that have nailed down the press from a mid-block, something McKenna might try to implement here.

The Brighton game ended up being a disappointment and has maybe tempered expectations a bit. I’m expecting a better performance than Thursday but I think City’s quality will prove to be too much in a 2-1 defeat.

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